DEM not gonna CON dis NATION: Rolling UK politics in the short-lived Cleggeron era

I don't think you necessarily need a swing one way or the other, just a dimunition in the Lib Dem vote. Since the general election the Lib Dem support has been bleeding away while both Labour and the Tories have increased. This means they would win fewer seats, and the fewer seats they have the smaller the 'window' is in which a hung parliament could occur. (xp - this has kind of been covered now)

(unless LDs drop to like 10% and 20 MPs)

I think if they dropped to 10% they'd have less than ten MPs.

sure, it's difficult, to do three way swing calcs in five years time, but i think as few as 20 MPs is outside what is possible. point is it would have to be a implausibly colossal diminution to be relevant on its own.

barring events

The latest average of opinion polls gives Con 40, Lab 37, Lib Dems 14.
Feeding those figures into one of those predictors gives Con 305, Lab 302, LD 17.

The latest individual opinion poll I can find gives Con 40, Lab 39, LD 12.
That translates into Con 298, Lab 316, LD 11.

xpost

Ipsos/Mori poll out today is 37/37/15, which on uniform swing would make Con 277, Lab 319, Lib dem 28

Something like that, technically a hung parliament, but a Labour minority administration, seems relatively likely, although as pointed out above, unusual.

My reasoning is that we've had two whopping great periods of government, both of which were only ended by recessions.

BUT if the Tories couldn't win outright even with the biggest recession in 60 years, an unpopular pm etc etc, they're going to have to be pretty amazing to win people over, and yet if the blame for that recession and the deficit that resulted from it hangs round Labour's neck, it's hard to see them making great progress.

A lot depends on the economy, obv, though.

Con 305, Lab 302, LD 17

^^ so hung parliament again then

both of which were only ended by recessions

On the contrary, Tory support inexplicably held up very well through two massive recessions.

Hung Parliament but with other minority parties becoming increasingly important? Could be chaotic.

Reputation shredded by 90s recession and its aftermath, though > 97 landslide.

^^ so hung parliament again then

It can still happen, obviously, but the lower the Lib Dem vote gets, the closer they need Labour and Tories to be (in terms of seats won) for them to have any chance of holding the balance of power. And holding the balance of power with 20-odd seats will net them much less influence* than they would have with 60-odd seats. And if they descend much lower then a deal with various nationalists would probably look more appealing.

*not that they seem to have any fucking influence whatsoever at the moment

Yeah there were a lot of people in the country who were basically Tories but not Tory enough to stick with them after losing a big chunk of the value of their house. (xpost)

Same goes this time round as well, Labour presided over the last crash and they might not be forgiven for it as quickly as people are assuming, Gordon Brown or no Gordon Brown. It all depends how bad the Tories are obviously.

Reputation shredded by 90s recession and its aftermath, though > 97 landslide

The housing crash started in 1989 and the economy started going backwards in 1990. Unemployment had leapt massively by the time of the 1992 election and there was no one they could blame but themselves. It didn't stop Major winning. The recession didn't carry on that much longer after that - a year tops. I think it was more a case of incompetence (over the currency) shredding their reputation and then years of a weak and divided government.

It can still happen, obviously, but the lower the Lib Dem vote gets, the closer they need Labour and Tories to be (in terms of seats won) for them to have any chance of holding the balance of power.

yeah, i get the basic maths, i just don't think the demographics/seats are there for the lib dems to go much below 20 seats. what happens to the lib dem vote is very much second to what happens to the con and labour votes in figuring out what happens next.

fwiw, those seat predictor uniform swing calculations become pretty much worthless once the LDs get down to nationalist party levels. uniform swing trivially fails as a calculation in a fptp system when a parties vote is small.

xpost

At which point it is worth thinking about the breakdown of the 5m lost labour votes since 1997, which are (from memory) something like

>Tory 1m
>Lib dem 1.8m
>Did not vote 3.2m

The core vote is a swing vote.

Except that adds up to 6m. And I'm assuming a significant proportion of those won't be voting again due to being dead?

That said I'm sure a lot of the youth vote went to the LibDems this time around and probably won't stay with them.

Ha ha simple maths

Anyway, it was something along those lines did not vote>lib dem>tory

Are all the numbers being posted assuming AV? Because isn't that what the lib dems are getting out of all this?

haha so not gonna happen

Some boundary changes between now and 2015 will fuck up all this seat number speculation.

nah, the uncertainties on the speculation even if the boundaries don't change >> the changes introduced by boundary changes

I thought the proposed (or rumoured to be proposed or w/e) boundary changes would strengthen Tory > Labour and also reduce seat numbers and mean Labour needed a much high share than the 37% above to be in with a shout of getting the Tories out of government.

they will but not to the extent that the fraction of MPs held by each party will change by 10%

thanks dudes, i'm larnin lots

to my chagrin

I thought the proposed (or rumoured to be proposed or w/e) boundary changes would strengthen Tory > Labour and also reduce seat numbers and mean Labour needed a much high share than the 37% above to be in with a shout of getting the Tories out of government.

Apparently the Liberals are likely to lose most out of the boundary changes :-D

Clegg is going to prop up the Tories until 2015, isn't he? Or is that just what they want us to think (obviously), as he'll be the big hero when he eventually ends the coalition?

in the same way that the Nazi generals who finally decided it might be an idea to pop Hitler in 1944 where heroes

how can he end the coaltion if 55% comes into play?

Guess you're right. I was hoping there might be a way out of the Con Dem Nation that doesn't involve waiting until 2015 or Boris Johnson.

I stupidly assume this was already linked but anyway:

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/1040301-Nick-Clegg-on-Mumsnet-this-Thursday-16th-Sept-evening-between

vidkun clegling is stuck w/ the nazis

I could've done with that link an hour and a half ago Ned

I blame Twitter.

Assume Mumsnet's mods wd've been up to the task anyway

Thank you, clegg_u_nazi_cunt, your question is awaiting moderation

CTRL F'd the page and the only "cunt" was a typo for "country".

Well that and Nick Clegg.

StewieGriffinsMom Mon 13-Sep-10 13:09:50

Well, considering he actively lied about his policy on Trident on the last webchat, I'm not holding out too much hope.

the best job in the world right now belongs to the tory apparatchik who gets to send nick clegg on errands

- squirm for the cameras while giving a 'humane face' to the destruction of public services
- give yr byline to op-ed piece written by enoch powell
- spend an hour each week lying and having shit thrown at you by mumsnet

Baby shit's not so bad tho

encomium of meconium

when are these arrogating little shits going to push through 55%, boundary changes, restoration of star chamber etc?

presume he enjoyed kicking it with the pope today too

55%/fixed terms is being held up by the legal dude

legal dude = someone cameron went to school with who now sits on the privy council or something. saw this maybe monday on the G website but can't find it now, didn't sound like a serious challenge though.

here we are: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/sep/07/fixed-term-parliaments-bill-open-legal-challenge

The bill is intended to end the considerable advantage a governing party enjoys by virtue of the prime minister being able to tactically plan and choose an election date most favourable to his party.

haha yes that's the main intention

it does seem pretty shambolic but they have clarified that vote of no confidence requires disolution of parliament

not going to be easy getting this past the tory right / constitutional conservatives, tho i dunno if the lib dem backbenchers will put up a fight

Liked Nicky Wire talking about Clegg the other day - "how can you be a young musician and not want to write a song about this cunt?"

Meanwhile Cable's starting to break with the party line:

Immigration limits are costing the UK thousands of jobs and hurting the country’s fragile economic recovery, Vince Cable said, in scathing comments that lay bare tensions on the issue within the coalition.

More FT video

“A lot of damage is being done to British industry,” the business secretary told the Financial Times on Thursday.

“I’ve got a file full of examples. This is not just people whingeing,” he said.

The cap on non-EU workers was a manifesto pledge for David Cameron and proved popular with voters: it was reluctantly accepted by Lib Dems in the May coalition negotiations.

Mr Cable’s complaints reflect business anger at the way the coalition has imposed an interim cap on work visas for people coming from outside the EU, leaving many companies able to recruit only a handful of non-European staff.

Mr Cable said he was fully signed up to the coalition’s plan for a permanent immigration cap but wanted to see it applied flexibly.

Companies said the interim cap, launched in July amid fears of a flood of visa applications before the introduction of a permanent limit in April, was rushed in too quickly and places Draconian limits on hiring foreign talent.

Their biggest complaint centred on the way border officials have calculated how many work permits each company should have this year based on the number they used in 2009, although many companies were then locked in a recession-enforced hiring freeze.

Mr Cable, speaking before the Liberal Democrat conference in Liverpool, refused to name companies but said the complaints took in investment banking, engineering and pharmaceuticals.

“I am not known of as the best friend of investment bankers, but you know they are quite an important source of economic activity,” he said.

“I was talking to people in the City and there were two investment banks that recruit hundreds of people from the non-EU area, Indians and Americans. They were allowed only 30-40 visas. They have moved some operations to Hong Kong.”

Mr Cable said in one instance a UK company needed 500 specialist engineers but was given a quota of four. He spoke of an entrepreneur who ditched plans to open a factory and create 400 jobs in northern England after failing to secure visas for key staff.

Mr Cable said the temporary quota cap had been wrongly fixed at 2009 levels.

“The economy is now recovering but companies can’t get access to the people they need.”

didn't realize things had gone to shit this quickly