2012 republican presidential nominee III: can romney get santorum out of his hair?

eh cain had the same angry bird trajectory as every other crazy candidate. I think his numbers woulda been similar without his scandals.

FORTYFUCKINGFIVEMILLION DOLLARS A YEAR

just had to get that out

lol "is Mitt Romney an anchor baby?"

"13 percent" is the figure that most delights me.

Ugh--that Sullivan excerpt above is awful. The one thing I remember about Bush's SOTU four years ago was how inconsequential it seemed in the middle of Obama/Hillary: "Hey, everyone, remember me?" I realize that what's going on on the Republican side this year is not...qualitatively equal to Obama/Hillary, but it has commanded the headlines almost as much--and Obama, similarly is automatically edged out of the picture, and is therefore (I believe) similarly diminished. (Especially as he'll invariably be proposing stuff that will go nowhere.)

Yes, but Bush = the lamest of ducks at that point.

True--obvious difference there.

Jennifer Rubin exhibits the 'stopped clock' principle. It's actually as cogent a summary of why Newt is a ridiculous choice as any other from the right.

Gingrich's "anti-media" angle is pretty shrewdly constructed to insulate him from any and all scandals/attacks - but it's a misdirection tactic that will only work for the rabid GOP base

the question is what % of primary voters are 'rabid GOP base'

He's so full of it, though. He goes after the reporter who asks him about his recidivist adultery saying that the 'liberal media' are degrading society (thereby shitting on the a free press with all the gusto that he shits on an independent judiciary) when such tough questions have been happening since the election of 1800 ffs. Then he turns around and insists that a debate which should elucidate should turn into a free-for-all whooping session so he can win not through reason but through emotion. If that's not degrading the tenor of our political discourse, I'm not sure what is. It's crypto-fascist demogoguery and he never fails to stun me with his utter contempt for Americans and for his mind-bogglingly wrong reading of American and republican values.

John Dickerson: "Romney has clearly cracked the seal on the Destroy Newt briefing book. Gingrich is running as a Washington outsider. Romney called B.S. (Or as he says it: Golly No!)"

the media is terrified that the audience is going to side with the candidates against the media, which is what they’ve done in every debate

Luckily being 'against the media' doesn't preclude constantly appearing in televised debates & talk shows.

Kinda love the fact that Warren Buffet's secretary is attending the SOTU and sitting next to Michele Obama. Obv. the fact that she pays a higher tax rate than her boss is going to figure prominently in the speech.

that was my first thought too

GINGRICH: "When I was speaker, we had four consecutive balanced budgets."

THE FACTS: Actually, two.

The four straight years of budget surpluses were 1998 through 2001. Gingrich left Congress in 1999, so he only had a hand in surpluses for his last two years. The budget ran deficits for his first two years as speaker.

The highest surplus of that four-year string came in budget year 2000, after Gingrich was out of office.

Overall, the national debt went up during the four years Gingrich was speaker. In January 1995, when he assumed the leadership position, the gross national debt was $4.8 trillion. When he left four years later, it was $5.6 trillion, an increase of $800 billion.

a little early for this but worth noting

http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/deadlocked-not-brokered-is-kind-of.html

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/photo-exclusive-when-george-romney-met-saul-alins

lol

Pobrecito.

So maybe we ought to all find someone who we all kind of like instead of heading to Tampa in August all licking wounds and pretending to rally to the man the voters chose between the evils of two real lessers.

maybe, just maybe, there's a reason this "someone" has not appeared yet...

I am a firm believer that primaries make stronger candidates. But at some point you just have to stand back, take a sip of bourbon, and sigh “Damn” under your breath as you behold the carnage being wrought within the Republican Party.

he gets it!

Newt Will Win
ggross56 (Diary) Tuesday, January 24th at 5:38PM EST (link)

This isn’t that complicated. Newt will defeat President Obama this November because Newt’s economic policies are smart, his reforms are what people agree with & his energy plans are precisely what people are looking for.

These are 70-30 issues in a nation that’s 2:1 conservative to liberal. What’s difficult about that?

xpost -- He won't really get it until he's posting drunk all the time.

haha goole I almost posted that thing

Feel the inspiration:

"Now, the banks aren't bad people. They're just overwhelmed right now," Romney said. "They're overwhelmed with a lot of things. One is a lot of homes coming in, that are in foreclosure or in trouble, and the other is with a massive new pile of regulations."

Nate Silver currently gives Newt a 75% chance of winning FL, fwiw. The rapid sloshing around in poll numbers continues to be breathtaking.

when is the FL vote?

Jan 31, a week from today.

what's amazing to me is that the GOP hasn't marginalized itself into irrelevance. i feel like any sane person witnessing this spectacle would conclude that this is its destiny.

but no matter how uninspiring the candidates may get, the 2-party system has this country on lock.

give it time

Now, the banks aren't bad people

lol he is so fucked.

the 2-party system has this country on lock.

Incontrovertible

I won't debate unless the crowd gets to whoop and cheer--excellent strategic move, Newt. The general perception of me is that I'm a megalomaniac, so I'll knock that down by hanging a flashing neon "Megalomaniac" sign around my neck.

man if Newt wins Florida... what's after Florida?

David Frum explodes.

February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

we strand them on guam in hurricane season.

xpost

man Nevada's been destroyed by the Housing crisis and Newt is way better with the race-baiting than Mitt, can see him taking that too... Maine, eh that's probably Romney's... CO I have no idea... shit this could easily go all the way to super tuesday.

dude FLORIDA's been destroyed by the Housing Crisis.

the GOP might get destroyed by The Newt Crisis.

I know Florida's had it bad with the housing too, iirc Nevada has had it the worst, statistically speaking

highest foreclosure rate in the country etc

arizona too no?

new (well pre-new hampshire) newt article at nyrb (not didion sorry) http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/feb/09/republican-nightmare/

linkee linkee linkee day.

Found this link thru Slacktivist, about the weird shifts going on in American evangelical conservative circles that had a bit that rang true and seemed really appropriate to our conversation:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/rogereolson/2012/01/neo-fundamentalism-excellent-but-somewhat-lengthy-essay/

Some conservative evangelicals are reacting to the contemporary influences of postmodernity in much the same way that the original fundamentalists did towards the influences of modernity a century ago — namely through hostility towards the broader culture, retrenchment around certain theological doctrines, and conflict with, or separatism from others within a more broadly defined evangelicalism.

… The driving force behind neo-fundamentalism, as with historic fundamentalism, is a “remnant mentality.” Neo-fundamentalists believe they alone are remaining true to the fullness of the gospel and orthodox faith while the rest of the evangelical church is in grave, near-apocalyptic danger of theological drift, moral laxity, and compromise with a postmodern culture – a culture which they see as being characterized by a skepticism towards Enlightenment conceptions of “absolute truth,” a pluralistic blending of diverse beliefs, values, and cultures, and a suspicion of hierarchies and traditional sources of authority. Because of this hostility toward postmodern ways of thinking, neo-fundamentalists have little tolerance for diversity of opinions among evangelicals on any issues they perceive as essential doctrines – which are most of them – as opposed to the broader evangelical movement which historically has allowed for a much wider range of disagreement on disputable matters. Neo-fundamentalists thus respond to the challenges of a postmodern culture by narrowing the boundaries of what they consider genuinely evangelical and orthodox Christianity, and rejecting those who maintain a more open stance.

It connects back to the point mentioned upthread that no tolerable GOP candidate could emerge b/c the current GOP primary base has been whittled down by the last 10-11 years to only the most resentful, clueless, angry, aged, etc. You have a lot of reactionary ideologues spurting forth a froth of anger and psychological issues manifested as politics.

There's a fucked-up emotional psychodrama going on that can't be reasoned with since it ain't coming from the reasoned part of people's brains.

In other words, all the sane people left. Huntsman stayed in far longer than one would have expected, even.

I think Newt would have to be the favorite if he actually won Florida. That would be the kind of devastating result that I don't think Romney has the political skill to handle.

nevada = mormons

lots and lots of mormons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_Republican_caucuses,_2008

Don't worry about Nevada. Fredo's been sent out there to take care of things, and the Molinari Family on the Coast has guaranteed his safety. Newt's got that one locked up.

As an outsider, can anyone tell me what any of these candidates stand for, other than winning the nomination?