Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!

maybe I missed something

I have problems/concerns with it but in addition to those I was v skeptical that they would even come to an agreement. I thought that Khamenei was not going to be willing to make the concessions the US would need to sell the deal to Congress.

who thinks israel solved the tunnel question? that's 4 in 8 days.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/syria-what-next#.VrUEg9JLAch.twitter

http://www.interpretermag.com/as-pressure-mounts-on-aleppo-russia-conducts-air-strikes-across-syria/#12328 also worth reading imo.

the idea is that if the russian airstrike backed assad military is able to retake aleppo this weekend that'll break the non-ISIS revolution

and then what

the world isn't going to ask for a diplomatic solution if the only parties left are assad and ISIS. idk what the long, long term plan is tho - occupy the country indefinitely? the US in Iraq demonstrated that you can win all the cities and the situation just turns into an insurgency and once you leave these groups reconstitute in new ways.

maybe putin and assad think there just hasn't been enough force yet. putin does have some history w/ successfully suppressing separatists w/ overwhelming violence

Samantha Power: Russian bombardment arnd Aleppo has plainly undermined Geneva talks & dealt a significant setback to UN Syria peace efforts

have to say I'm kind of okay with Putin+Assad and ISIS all trying to kill each other, save us the trouble of getting involved.

also now KSA is offering to send troops to Iraq ostensibly to help fight ISIS

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/05/obamas-disastrous-betrayal-of-the-syrian-rebels/

The encirclement of Aleppo would also create a humanitarian disaster of such magnitude that it would eclipse the horrific sieges of Madaya and other stricken regions that have received the world’s (short-lived) attention. Tens of thousands of Aleppo residents are already fleeing toward Kilis, the Turkish town that sits across the border from Azaz. The humanitarian crisis, lest anyone still had any doubt, is a deliberate regime and Russian strategy to clear important areas of problematic residents — while paralyzing rebels, neighboring countries, Western states, and the United Nations.

Assad all along pursued a strategy of gradual escalation and desensitization that, sadly, worked well. Syrians already compare the international outcry and response to the IS’ siege of Kobane in 2014 to the world’s indifference to the current tragedy.

To complicate the situation even more, the regime’s advances could allow the Kurdish-dominated, American-favored Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conquer the area currently held by the Free Syrian Army and Islamist militias between the Turkish border and the new regime front line north of the Shiite towns of Nubl and Zahra. This would pit the SDF against IS on two fronts: from the west, if the Kurds of Afrin canton seize Tal Rifaat, Azaz and surrounding areas, and from the east, where the YPG is toying with the idea of crossing the Euphrates River. An IS defeat there would seal the border with Turkey, meeting an important American objective.

Another MSF bombing:

BREAKING: Airstrikes have hit an MSF-supported hospital in Dara’a, southern Syria, killing 3 people & wounding at least 6 including a nurse

holy shit

about the ceasefire that is

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kerry-searches-for-common-ground-on-the-syrian-conflict/2016/02/11/1bc6482c-d042-11e5-90d3-34c2c42653ac_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_ussyria-505pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

er "cessation of hostilities"

“I can’t stop Putin,” he said of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Can you say no to Putin?” he said, referring to the United States and its allies.

looooooool

I know rite. Def seems like Assad/Russia are holding all the cards - achieved enough recent victories that negotiating a deal looks like an acceptable outcome. Humanitarian aid being opened up is definitely a plus though, come on.

No, for sure. But I don't get if this is just a glorified surrender of moderate rebel groups to Assad, or just a temporary humanitarian ceasefire and they'll start again afterward.

The goal is to ensure that charges of violations would be directed to the committee, rather than responded to in kind. Any fighting group that signed on to and complied with a cease-fire would be exempt from airstrikes. It presumes that the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, considered by all parties to be terrorist groups, would not participate. Opposition groups embedded with al-Nusra in the anti-Assad fight would have to decide whether to sever those links and separate themselves geographically from the militants.

it seems like a good idea but only makes sense if you think this is just FSA giving up, right?

kerry says despite assad gains near aleppo in recent weeks, that difference does not end the war, does not mean assad secure in long run - so temporary. it'll be interesting to see if this lasts.

Have we mentioned that Saudi Arabia committed to sending troops (to fight ISIS, of course!).

Seems proxy wasn't enough.

i've been thinking a lot recently about how there hadn't been revised numbers for syria casualties in quite a while - i kept only seeing ones from 2014. Syrian Center for Policy Research says the toll is now 470,000.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/02/john_kerry_s_syria_deal_may_only_lock_in_gains_for_bashar_al_assad_and_russia.html

Secretary of State John Kerry said at a press conference in Munich that the “cessation of hostilities,” which will begin in a week, does not apply to the fight against ISIS and the other main jihadist group, al-Nusra Front. But that is not quite what the document says. The document says that the pause in fighting—and the signatories’ support for “the agreement and implementation of a nationwide ceasefire”—does not apply to ISIS, al-Nusra Front, "or other groups designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council.” (Italics added.)

Here’s the thing: The Security Council’s members are still divided on which groups in Syria to tag as “terrorist.” In line with Kerry’s remarks, the United States defines the term to include ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra. But Russia broadens its coverage to any group fighting on the ground in Syria, other than the Syrian army and its allies.

In other words, Russia (and Iran and Syria, among others) could properly read the document as allowing the fight to continue not only against ISIS and al-Nusra Front, but also against the Kurds, the various U.S.-supported rebels—any armed group that opposes the Syrian military or threatens Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

That is the same wording as the resolution against ISIS, Al-Nusra, etc the UN brought in after the Paris attacks. The ISSG designates the groups and the SC ratifies that designation. It looks like Kaplan thinks that means any group a member of the SC thinks is a terror organisation but it doesn't.

Egypt apparently feeling bold enough to extend state murder to Italians:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/italy-mourns-premier-matteo-renzi-demands-truth-from-egypt-in-slaying-of-italian-student-giulio/

The car accident theory might have been more convincing had they not burned him with cigarettes and pulled his fingernails out first.

If this Iraqi dam collapses, half a million people could die

second MSF hospital bombed this week

When Russia bombs an MSF hospital, it's a war crime, but when the U.S. does, it's the fog of war.

otoh no one seems to care about russia bombing MSF hospitals repeatedly and there was a huge outcry when the US did it, and i haven't seen a lot of screaming about war crimes from the state dept so ya know

The UK, France and Turkey have all called it a war crime. Not massively surprising the state department is keeping quiet beyond condemning it "in the strongest possible terms". It isn't entirely clear whether it was Russia or Syria that did it though.

Anyway, big explosion in Ankara this evening.

Car bomb less than 1km from Parliament. Seems to have been mainly targeting a military vehicle. At least five dead and that is expected to rise.

Death toll now 18.

EXPERIENCE

Bombs dropped by fighter jets are pulverizing Yemen’s architectural history, possibly in violation of international humanitarian law.

A few years earlier, as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton made weapons transfer to the Saudi government a “top priority,” according to her closest military aide.

And now, newly released emails show that her aides kept her well-informed of the approval process for a 2011 sale worth $29.4 billion to Boeing of up to 84 advanced F-15SA fighters, along with upgrades to the Saudi’s pre-existing fleet of 70 F-15 aircraft, and munitions, spare parts, training, maintenance, and logistics.

The deal was finalized on Christmas Eve 2011. Afterwards, Jake Sullivan, then Clinton’s deputy chief of staff and now a senior policy adviser on her presidential campaign, sent her a celebratory e-mail string topped with the chipper message: “FYI – good news.”

The email string was part of a new batch of emails from Clinton’s private server, made public on Friday evening as the result of a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

One American official, whose name is redacted in the emails, said he had just received confirmation that Prince Salman, now the King of Saudi Arabia but at the time the senior Saudi liaison approving weapons deal, had “signed the F-15SA LOA today” and would send scanned documents the following day.

“Not a bad Christmas present,” he added.

https://theintercept.com/2016/02/22/saudi-christmas-present/

Brits selling to Saudi Arabia too, but not as much as the US is.

Britain sold more weapons to Saudi Arabia than to any other country. Saudi Arabia is also the biggest US arms market and buys more American arms than British, the report shows.

...

“A coalition of Arab states is putting mainly US- and European-sourced advanced arms into use in Yemen,” said Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher with Sipri’s arms and military expenditure programme. “Despite low oil prices, large deliveries of arms to the Middle East are scheduled to continue as part of contracts signed in the past five years.”

The report says Saudi Arabia is the world’s second largest weapons importer after India.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/22/saudi-arabia-surge-arms-imports-middle-east

Brits selling to Saudi Arabia too, but not as much as the US is.

If they had as many weapons to sell as the US they would be.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/world/middleeast/un-finds-deliberate-destruction-of-hospitals-in-syria.html

Horrible, and sadly, not surprising

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AqeqAQ1ILI

this is incredible to me in the worst way http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/26/all-adult-males-in-one-iranian-village-executed-for-drug-offences-official-says

Iran remains a prolific executioner, second only to China.

China has fewer executions per capita.

Iran is widely suspected of using drugs convictions to punish people associated or thought to be associated with the Baloch insurgency so it's probably as least as likely that would have been the motivation behind executing large numbers of people from certain villages. It is also possible that it's hyperbole designed to reinforce the public perception of links between Baloch separatists and the smuggling of drugs from Afghanistan / Pakistan.

Iran apparently uses the same grounds with homosexuality convictions

Clinton and Libya

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-two-week-truce-in-syria-goes-into-effect-guns-fall-silent/2016/02/27/1adccaaa-dc16-11e5-8210-f0bd8de915f6_story.html

Its mostly worked for one day so far!

There were no planes in the skies of the much-bombed city of Aleppo for the first time in days, and residents there ventured into the streets with newfound confidence, said Ameen al-
Halabi, an activist living in a rebel-held neighborhood.

Iran election: Reformists win all 30 Tehran seats

That's the good news.

Meanwhile in Syria, after one day of the truce, Russian planes began bombing again.

Truce is in the eye of the bombardier.

Condemning an apparent airstrike in Yemen that reportedly killed at least 32 civilians in a market northeast of Sana'a on Saturday, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for a prompt and impartial investigation into the incident, which saw a death toll that was among the highest from a single bombing in recent months.

According to a statement issued by his spokesperson, the Secretary-General is concerned about the continuing intense airstrikes and ground fighting in Yemen despite his repeated calls for a cessation of hostilities.

To that end, he strongly condemned the apparent airstrike on 27 February that hit Khaleq market, in Nahem District in the Yemeni capita, Sana'a, killing at least 32 civilians and injuring at least 41 civilians. The death toll is among the highest from a single bombing since September 2015...

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsId=53331#.VtSOevkrJhF