Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

Shailesh Vara, who is pro-EU iirc, just released a statement of support for IDS contradicting Altmann, so idk what is going on at the moment.

the best we can hope for is some sort of breakdown that's going to transform him into a combination of Joseph Rowntree and David Icke

David Rowntree? Oh that's the Blur drummer.

there's something beautifully Duncan Smith-ish about the way nobody, even on his own side, believes he resigned because of principle or compassion

Sometimes I wonder if anyone even reads Julia Hartley-Brewer's Twitter account.

Still no mention of the UC court case from the BBC.

... instead it's all, "The interview with Andrew Marr showed conclusively that Iain Duncan Smith is a man of principle, who came into government to help the poorest and most disadvantaged in society".

Labour don't appear to be fucking this up (yet).

Goldsmith and Osborne's mayoral campaigning going about as well as can be expected:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osborne-forced-cancel-photoshoot-7586576#ICID=sharebar_twitter

Instead of the planned ‘walkabout’, the Millionaire MPs donned hard hats and hi-vis vests but hid from chanting protesters in a makeshift office in a metal container for two hours at Northumberland Park Station in Tottenham.

Tory aides then instructed Transport for London engineers to dig a hole for the photoshoot on industrial land out of shouting distance of the irate group.

Sources told the Mirror engineers even had to check the site for gas pipes before the “pointless hole” was dug.

Eventually Osborne and a sheepish-looking Zac Goldsmith dashed out of the container in to a Range Rover Discovery which drove them just 100 metres to the hole as protesters shouted “shame on you”.

Superb.

Labour don't appear to be fucking this up (yet).

― jedi slimane (suzy), Sunday, March 20, 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The Labour right are keeping quiet so far.

still mourning IDS/benefit cuts

Black day for them.

Who will tickle Frank Field under the chin now?

Is Chuka Umunna on the right, for the purposes of this exercise? because he's been giving IDS both barrels all weekend, and even before the resignation.

I am completely in agreement with what Chuka has been saying on IDS, but it is all a bit empty + lacking conviction coming out of his mouth.

is chuka the most bored politician ever?

anyway...It has been reported that Crabb began his career as an intern at CARE – Christian Action Research and Education, a controversial organisation that offers gay cure therapy with the promise of making its participants ‘ex-gay.’ Despite telling the Telegraph in 2012 that he does not ‘support or endorse any views about “gay cure” theology,’ Crabb has failed to distance himself from CARE, even hiring political interns through the organisation. He also voted against marriage equality legislation in 2013.

http://attitude.co.uk/dwp-minister-stephen-crabb-mp-linked-to-fundamentalist-gay-cure-therapy-organisation/

it didn't enter my mind that he might not be gay, tbh, so now it's even more obvious.

A "senior cabinet source" has apparently told the Times that Cameron is blaming Osborne for "messing up" the cuts and that he would pay with his reputation.

My only moan from this weekend is that I only got 2 numbers on the lottery

Heh

Two more than George Osborne.

Yes, this has been a good weekend.

A "senior cabinet source" has apparently told the Times that Cameron is blaming Osborne for "messing up" the cuts and that he would pay with his reputation.

― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Sunday, March 20, 2016 11:01 PM (27 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It's almost as if he'd never read and approved it all prior.

Cameron's fate and reputation is pretty much tied to Osborne's, Osborne has been responsible for the whole direction of the government, pretty much, presumably with Cameron's full support. He can't sack him now without looking like a failure himself, he especially can't sack him three months before an EU referendum, but he also can't have a discredited chancellor shitting up the whole pro-EU message and potentially ending his Premiership in the process. Trying to ride it out and limit the damage is pretty much his only option.

Any potential Boris administration is hardly likely to be defined by the dry rhetoric of tough choices and deficit reduction, he just isn't that kind of politician. Even if he continues with austerity in practice there will be flourishes and grand vanity projects and a start-of-a-new-golden-age narrative. Can't work out if most of the country will see straight through it or lap that shit up.

Rawnsley in the Observer yesterday was speculating that the main reason for the IDS resignation was his getting out before he was set up as the fall guy for Osborne's mistakes, which seems very plausible even though IDS made a boatload of his own. Meanwhile they've still got a big pile of expensive Universal Credit shit on the table and no palatable options for dealing with it - either get rid of the whole project and look insanely profligate, or proceed with the whole thing and risk the sort of disaster than brings down governments.

it's potnetially a Poll Tax-level of toxic policy fuck-up

potentially even

I suspect the damage to Osborne over the recent cuts won't be as critical or long-lasting as expected. A bit of public penitence, a sense that lessons have been learned, etc and he'll continue as he was. The government's economic credibility is too heavily tied up in him as a Chancellor to make any significant changes.

This has always been the problem on the horizon, though - there's only so long you can blame Labour profligacy for cuts and the more you sell the idea of the strength of the British economy, the harder it is to portray cuts as anything other than ideological. I think he has probably confused a public willingness to accept reduced welfare and local government spending as a perceived necessity with an active appetite for them.

I don't even think the public has that. It wants an end to the welfare fraud and benefit scrounging and "never working in your life" it has been told are endemic, but it doesn't want the cases it's sympathetic to being cut.

The Tories want the latter and think the public are the same. That's what has started to unravel, I think.

Also, perpetual austerity (which is what the govt pretty much wants), sends the impression that things just aren't getting that much better. That's going to wear on voters sooner or later, not to mention the fact that they'll start asking why. They're already doing so.

I suspect the damage to Osborne over the recent cuts won't be as critical or long-lasting as expected. A bit of public penitence, a sense that lessons have been learned, etc and he'll continue as he was

It is now very unlikely that he'll be the next leader of the Conservative Party or PM. That's a big fall from where he was last autumn. Nothing I can see about the Tories suggests they're in the mood for a continuity candidate right now.

cool if the public are starting to catch on 50 months before next general election

xp, that was

They aren't exactly well stocked with alternatives. Johnson has staked his credibility on Brexit, the up-and-coming Patel / Raab axis is actively evil and there's a lot of dead wood in the cabinet / back benches.

Osborne is so central to their relationship with the city anything that shifts him out is a risk.

the up-and-coming Patel / Raab axis

Don't fancy the UK becoming Singapore? Well, tough.

Weird the Sun standing alone with an "NHS scroungers" story this morning. Are they sympathetic to Osborne? Murdoch sure isn't - cf the Times

Johnson will survive an "In" vote; it's exactly the sort of thing he can shrug off with a "well, we tried our best and now we 47% will battle to make Europe work for us we will never uh uh er surrender"

Johnson has staked his credibility on Brexit, the up-and-coming Patel / Raab axis is actively evil and there's a lot of dead wood in the cabinet / back benches.

Struggling to see why any of these issues would prevent the Tories from voting them in, especially if there's a concerted anti-Osborne movement. There'll be an anti-Boris movement as well obviously, which does increase the likelihood of someone really toxic like Dominic Raab somehow winning. The big winner over the last week or so is probably Theresa May though.

Tory party has definitely been hugely helped by Cameronnosborne staying tight for a whole decade. Things might start coming apart quite quickly if they start sniping like Blairnbrown.

I just hope Corbynnmcdonnell don't go the same way after several years in downing street :-/

Think no pro-remain candidate will win the tory leadership, *especially* if the vote is to stay.

It is now very unlikely that he'll be the next leader of the Conservative Party or PM. That's a big fall from where he was last autumn Wednesday.

Govt not going to oppose rebel amendments to the Budget, this'll get fun

David Davis now getting his money's worth.

He said Osborne had no chance of replacing David Cameron as party leader in the near future. Asked if Osborne’s chances of becoming prime minister were finished, he replied:
Not ever. If the leadership election were to be in the next six months, I think he would be sunk without trace.
He also said it might make sense to move Osborne to another post.

Very, very few people go straight from being chancellor to being prime minister, and when they do, it’s not always a success. Gordon Brown was the last one.
He said that James Callaghan did other jobs after leaving the Treasury (home secretary and foreign secretary) and that he was “given the circumstances, a very successful prime minister”.

No 10 now saying it has "complete confidence" in Osborne. popcorn.gif

Ah, we are at the Football Manager stage, right?

p.s. What's a "successful" Prime Minister?

Not James Callaghan surely?

I mean, Winter of Discontent/Unburied Corpses/Binbags in Leicester Square/ Sned in the Army and Make Prince Philip Head of State blah blah blah

You don't get a "successful" Prime Minister.

People might look back after twenty years and say "ah, he wasn't so bad"

Callaghan did a reasonable job of keeping a minority government going through very tough economic times but I suspect Tories are likely to look fondly on him because he led directly to 11 years of Thatcher.

Its just funny to contemplate a demotion for Osborne - never work, he is absolutely central to these shits at the Treasury.

Fucker must be in a bunker somewhere.