Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

July would maximise feelings of Scottishness as it pisses down?

Forgotten come Nov, right?

There's just nothing to do St. Andrew's day - it's an empty holiday. We might populate it, but hopefully not by abducting the content of other holidays. Eating haggis and drinking whiskey, while awesome, aren't part of it. My idea is that you have to listen to every big country album, while drinking tennents and eating chips. Which is my weekends anyway.

Eating haggis and drinking whiskey, while awesome, aren't part of it.

That's Burns Night anyway. Whiskey :-o

Right; it can't just be a second burns night. We could always celebrate the Scottish poets who are actually good, but when I try that on burns night people are resistant.

I would celebrate a Panther Burns night

I liked his work with Wee Eck Chilton.

A burns night dedicated to insulting each other.

http://images-cdn.moviepilot.com/images/c_scale,h_438,w_438/t_mp_quality/gmfsrnxfn7ua31qdza6z/stop-panicking-mr-burns-is-not-leaving-the-simpsons-excellent-495170.jpg

Some worrying polling data is coming through suggesting that the hail Mary 'if you want a Turk for a neighbour, vote remain' stuff is working.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium

Graun trying to whip up the faithful on the run-in

I can't see how we're not leaving. It's like a slow-motion car-crash.

average odds on "Stay" still 2/5. not saying it's impossible, but i trust bookies' odds way more than newspaper polls

also i want people to fully enjoy the consequences of their voting decisions

[I don't understand odds enough to know if that's good but I hope that that's good]

Also my sample size isn't much larger than relatives on facebook sharing Britain First-esque videos that suggest the world wanted to be a British colony until WW2 and it's all Germany's fault that we're no longer a great nation. (Most of these relatives will probably be dead before the true after-effects of leaving the EU (and global warming, which they also don't believe in) take hold)

the odds mean that roughly speaking bookmakers and their customers consider a "stay" win to be twice as likely as a "leave"

Brexiters are far noisier than Stay voters, for a number of reasons

i'm still firmly in the Mercutio camp

Brexiters are far noisier than Stay voters, for a number of reasons

again going only by my sample group one of those reasons is flatulence

The odds are narrowing at a rate tho. Was way more comfortable even a week ago.

we've postal voted already (will be in the anti-EU enclave of Switzerland for the vote) so won't be able to discover if I'm susceptible to vile anti-Turk racist scaremongering after all

Yeah I saw that, I think they've only got so much ground to make tho. Don't know if there are enough true neutrals to swing the poll

But hey, we Brits love an underdog

Basically after 2015 I'm braced for disappointment with every election.

"Call me Morbz."

Will never be disappointed by a free electorate expressing its values and opinions through a democratic vote

lol

Time to go out and get a swastika tattooed on your tit.

My understanding at this point is that more people overall favour Remain but likely voters favour Leave.

well fucking vote then

There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.

Anyone remember what the share of pro-PR MPs was?

Don't know but I'm sure they were in the minority.

the whole campaign is so depressing. Remain or the sky will fall in! Leave and it will be sunshine every day! surprised anyone can muster the will to vote after all this.

If we do vote to leave as a nation, wtf are you going to do? I don't want to live in a country that votes to leave.

move to Scotland

I'll put in a good word for most of ye

Some of ye

The odds are narrowing at a rate tho. Was way more comfortable even a week ago.

― japanese mage (LocalGarda), Monday, June 6, 2016 4:36 AM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is true in the sense that they've narrowed, but it's still around 70% remain, which is more than it was a couple of months ago:

http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics

individual polls should not be reported as news stories. it's professional negligence on the level of the "thing gives you cancer" stuff in the daily express, which always based on a single study, not a meta-analysis. the only things worth paying attention to are polling averages and the betting markets.

apart from the betting markets.

The money in political betting is pretty tiny in the bookies scheme of things though, it's basically just for publicity they even bother.

apparently it's enough for bookies odds to be far more predictive and reliable than individual polls

Who (the fuck) Are You.

Wish I'd put £20 on Corbyn to win when the stupid bookies had him at 200/1.

the money on the exchanges is not remotely tiny

'far more predictive and reliable than individual polls' is, as you say, a pretty low bar. You don't become more all-knowing just because you've put some money on - generally the opposite in fact.

But presumably the betting shops that define the odds are doing so based on their own research re: who might win, and stand to lose £££s if they are wrong? [I have never bet on anything so forgive me if this is all wrong]

But also on the betting they receive - if lots of folk bet on one side it shifts the odds.

In a liquid market like Brexit that's all that matters. This is not some William hill people reading the papers and estimating probabilities based on the tone of the guardian editorial section. It's just supply and demand of bets.

I'm not saying they (or poll average trackers) are perfectly predictive but they are both much better than individual polls (and light years ahead of pundits).

Assuming both sides are equally likely to bet, in equal sums, no?

but that assumes that people only bet how they will vote...