Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

an analysis of polls and betting market predictors here:

http://app.ft.com/cms/s/6a63c2ca-2d80-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html?siteedition=uk

summary: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Leave odds are contracting again, 10/3 in places now.

you don't need to follow them "in places". people take the average and convert them into implied probabilities for you, e.g. http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics

serenity now

Yannis Philippakis from Foals is more concerned with immigration than travel, however, and the pressure migrants will put on British resources.

"My main concern, and I guess this is the thing that the Brexit people are playing on, is that the British population will expand to 80 million," he tells Newsbeat.

"When you already have problems with the NHS, problems with schooling, there are problems within British society's infrastructure and my concern would only be that you don't have serenity.

"You don't have ability to control what is happening in your own country."

kill yourself, make a space

Leave odds are contracting again, 10/3 in places now.

― calzino, Thursday, June 9, 2016 8:40 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

also the leave odds are not 10/3 anywhere right now, and they're not contracting (i.e. shortening?), they are lengthening: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

at this time of posting they are still 10/3 at Paddy Power. I missed all the midweek fluctuations in betting but they were 9/2 last week.

fluctuations are why it's better to follow averages of markets/polls. they are slower to capture sudden real changes, but absent actual news (which there rarely is in a political campaign), that's a good thing, because most sudden changes are not real.

Born to a Greek father and a South African-born Ukrainian-Jewish[1] mother (Renee Hirschon),[2] Philippakis left Greece with his mother when he was five years old.[3] His father taught him traditional folk songs and dances.[3] He was raised in the Greek Orthodox religion.[4]

comin over ere, takin our opportunities to make stodgy art-rock like what we used to manufacture ourselves

Was an argument in the pub today (which I stayed out of) about brexit. Oddly, it was middle aged guys for leaving (40-60) and the see folks (mostly seventies, some sixties) who argued for staying. I was especially pleased when this guy brought up farage that the old guys dismissed him as a racist. The pro-exit seemed less informed but more zealous (though I would say that), and were corrected about things like 'scotland doesn't age to worry about trade with Europe' because whisky and tourism, and how the EU is apparently why 'oil prices have dropped. But then this is an ex mining town, and I doubt that divide is replicated elsewhere.

https://c2.staticflickr.com/4/3815/13678047445_721d268633_b.jpg

xxxp

i did a refresh and the PP 10/3 has indeed gone, but honest guv it was quoted in a few places at the time I posted earlier! What is the meaning of the derived hypermind/betfair prices on that thing you linked to? Like I don't understand what they represent + why they are both dramatically shorter.

also the leave odds are not 10/3 anywhere right now, and they're not contracting (i.e. shortening?), they are lengthening: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, June 9, 2016 2:03 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark

Eh what are you talking about? At every single bookie on your own Oddschecker link the odds are shorter than 10/3 (see below). At your Predictwise link, the chances of Leave is given as 27% - making it more likely even than 10/3 would imply (23%).

http://i.imgur.com/J87zcOg.png

odds change

Haha yeah, and the 10/3 at Paddy Power mentioned above is pretty much the longest the odds have been at any point all day. You don't know what you're talking about.

http://i.imgur.com/xRMeB9V.png

i said:

"the leave odds are not 10/3 anywhere right now, and they're not contracting (i.e. shortening?), they are lengthening"

this was in response to a post that said leave odds were shortening and were 10/3 in places.

to be clear what my reply means for those with reading issues: when i wrote it the odds were not 10/3 anywhere (some were longer, some were shorter, but there was no 10/3). and they were all red, i.e. they were all lengthening.

the same is true right now btw.

http://i.imgur.com/IeGlVFo.png

ok two of them aren't lengthening right now. i apologise. please play for my immortal soul while i resign my job as a statistician and surrender my phd.

Hey man, when you posted the odds were 10/3 exactly at Paddy Power like the guy said. "Some were longer, some were shorter" is nonsense - 10/3 is the longest it's been all day, as I said. You made a mistake, no harm done. The betting talk in this thread is mostly harmless garbage and I wouldn't even bother except you were dropping links like a big man that you patently didn't understand.

when i said that the odds were not 10/3 anywhere and the odds were lengthening everywhere, well, the odds were not 10/3 anywhere, and the odds were and are lengthening everywhere. the same is also true in the screenshot you posted, and the same is true right now.

if you want to assume i don't understand probability or that i'm lying for some reason then fine.

Fuck me. Ye got worse since.

when i said that the odds were not 10/3 anywhere and the odds were lengthening everywhere, well, the odds were not 10/3 anywhere

Hey you keep on saying this when the screenshot shows it was 10/3 at Paddy Power for more than four hours, including at the time (14:03) you posted your original thing. I've got nothing to say about lengthening or shortening odds (you're basically correct that odds have slightly lengthened today, though they haven't really shifted significantly for weeks). I think you're missing the point. The guy said the odds were 10/3 and you bizarrely and pompously called him a liar. He was right about 10/3, as the screenshot shows. He was wrong about everything else, including his thinking that 10/3 was low. I may have misread you telling him off with him that 10/3 would be low - but if so your "at the precise moment I posted" thing is weirder and funnier.

yes you misread me

i didn't call him a "liar" (wtf?) and i didn't say the things about the odds you "may" (ha) have misread me as saying.

but if you enjoy the "i'm not actually mad. my mum says i have a very even temper. i just think this is funny." stuff then go for it.

"10/3 in places now"
"the leave odds are not 10/3 anywhere right now"

Hang your head in shame.

I'm feeling dreadfully pessimistic about this. Listening daily to vox-pops from "the great British public" on TV is utterly depressing.

I'm not sure what the current odds are, or the whatever caek's ZX81 has come up with:p

but it does feel like populist bigotry is on the up right now.

I can feel a brexit in my waters.

Load of fucking shite. Xenophobic sassanach bastards

must remain to post my ballot when I get home actually :/

haha Freudian slip

:)

A Brexit will supposedly hit 'us' harder than any other EU country (Ireland and Cyprus close on our tail). In all honesty, I just can't see it happening, England voting to leave the EU. But then it's been some years since I lived there and a lot can change fast, 'suppose? It would be quite surreal though. I for one would feel phantom pain where England once used to be a limb. Or something, idk. Just feels very wrong, for both England and EU to let go of each other.

We'd gain more from.arty dossers moving to west cork

(Full disclosure: I lived in the fringes of England, North-Yorkshire and Cornwall, and both probably - definitely - say nowt about 'England')

Xp

England? Don't you mean the United Kingdom?

Though you're right that England might vote to leave the EU, the UK might vote to stay. Which would be hilarious.

England is being used quite commonly in vox pops. because that's what it boils down to, English nationalism (ok the welsh are really keen and vote for ukip in decent numbers but i have no idea what the welsh are all about tbh)

i have no idea what the welsh are all about tbh

They don't seem to know themselves.

I have never knowingly known a welsh person

Didn't use 'England' in a vox pop way but yeah, Europeans tend to see this as about England debating to leave the EU, not UK. Idk why.

Because the other nations aren't considered to be of any importance, I imagine.

Also Scotland failing to qualify for Euro 2016, of course.

Having gone to casualty recently I have no idea what state the NHS would be in if it weren't for new immigrants and 1st, 2nd and 3rd generation children of immigrants.

Did you watch QT? Eddie Izzard is such a nob.

to think he harbored ambitions of being mayor of london

Excruciating, made a complete arse of himself. By the way, in case anyone is not sure of the nomenclature, QT stands for the Nigel Farage Show.

I didn't actually catch it but was chatting to a friend about it just there, he claimed that a brexiter - I guess from the audience - actually said the sentence "we're being diluted".

I wish I hadn't caught it. Everything about it was fucking awful.

It's horrifying to watch.

"We are getting diluted" was actually the parting shot and final words of the "debate"

agent Izzard has served us well tonight [demonic Tory cackling]