Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

and ffs don't read the comments!

or ignored, one of those
xp

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/22/vote-leave-flew-a-plane-over-jo-cox-birthday-memorial-service-5960903/

oh ffs

A date for the fly past, over Westminster towards Tower Bridge, was made public last Friday before the memorial service had been arranged.
It was originally scheduled to take off at 12pm today but was delayed until 1pm and then 3.30pm because of adverse weather conditions.
It was organised by Britten-Norman Limited, independently of the official Vote Leave campaign.

so...this is basically a non-story then?

i was going to vote Brexit, for a bunch of subjective, more or less silly or not silly reasons, because i don't give too much of a shit about the whole proposition

and i was just walking home, thru the park the back of my house, and I saw a bunch of my East European neighbours, friends, people in the community, and i thought about the other EU nationals i work with or drink with or whatever else, and i realised fuck it, i'm voting Remain just because (maybe only because) i'm not metaphorically telling all those people to fuck off

guardian pollster on 538 this week basically said a) uk polls are worthless so who knows but b) he thinks it'll be close and he thinks it'll be remain bc when it's close ppl will tend to go w/ the status quo safer option

The thing that is currently freaking me out: if it is as close as it seems, in the event of a Remain victory the far right will continuously lobby (and possibly get) further referenda, but in the event of a Leave victory I bet everyone will drop the idea of another referendum because "the people have spoken".

Put yer tin hats on before reading the most WTF thing I've read this year

Terrifyingly insane

(fwiw i don't have any special inside information but i did call the michigan primary for bernie; i think remain is going to win and i don't think it'll be that close. but again i don't really know anything, it's just a gut feeling.)

the most accurate forecast prior to the 2015 was probably matt singh, afaik the only person who argued the conservative vote was being underestimated via some quite acute statistical work

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/polls-wrong-initial-postmortem.html/

his current forecast is 37% leave

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/06/forecast-update-the-last-lap.html/

and there's some suggestion for a similar underestimation of the remain vote in the polling because leave voters are disproportionately easy to contact by pollsters

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/06/eu-referendum-polling

though even the most sanguine forecasts would estimate approximately 30% chance the uk leaves, so whilst there is a clear favourite it could quite easily go the other way

NV, I have yet to read a full accounting of what the transition would look like, but wouldn't Britain exiting the EU not really metaphorically be telling EU nationals to fuck off? I'd imagine there would be a fair amount of paperwork to apply for foreign resident worker status, although not nearly as many hoops as there are to jump through for foreign workers in the US. I'd imagine a fair number would get rejected, or leave due to the process.

I've read a few conversations elsewhere on the web where EU residents were starting to hedge their employment by looking around for jobs in mainland Europe in case their British residency situation became tenuous.

When the US diminished the number of work visas a number of years ago I had a few coworkers who went to college here, worked here for a couple years, and were forced to move home due to their visas not being renewed. It was annoying, because a bunch of them were people that had been interns or employees in positions the department had a hard time filling.

Wow that does sound really annoying how did u cope

Anyone currently living here would probably be ok whatever happens. They would have to stay here and could lose the right to return if they left for any extended period, iirc. The non-resident family members of resident EU citizens would probably find it much more difficult to join them.

If the UK leaves but wanted to have access to European markets like Norway does there is a reasonable possibility that free movement might be the cost of that.

However, the UK does have an extremely strict and inflexible immigration system for non-EU workers and the risk that it could be extended to new entrants from Europe is significant given that immigration seems to be the only thing the majority of leave voters care about. The government has already committed to unrealistic immigration cuts and a new government, even further to the right, would probably try to follow through on some of that. Most new EU migrants would not be eligible for working visas if the current rules applied to them.

the factuality of Britain exiting the EU could be any of a number of things because nobody knows how it would pan out and everybody who claims to is a liar but symbolically it will be a "fuck off" and practically i don't want to feel even notionally responsible for anything that amounts to repatriation

Is there a good explanation of which areas the UK would be able to "take back" control over if they went for a Norway-like/EEA status?

If out does end up meaning completely out, I wouldn't be surprised if some categories of already-resident EU nationals were forced to apply for permission to stay. The Tories do love a points system, it would be a shame not to use it.

on the other hand there's a few more hours for me to react badly to getting hectored by middle class liberals so who knows

:(

not a jab at anybody here in case that wasn't clear, just the whole stinking tone of this thing

"reacting badly" probably behind 99% of votes [either way] I expect

i've got an EEA-4 that lasts til 2022 so i figure they can't exactly "cancel" that? even if i took off to live in hawaii for a year? (mmmm hawaii)

Wow that does sound really annoying how did u cope

― Daithi Bowsie (darraghmac), Wednesday, June 22, 2016 3:32 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

rough times, darragh. rough times.

anyone watching this circus on c4

Can't bring myself to do so, I know how I'm voting and it'll just upset me.

a host of guests including Admiral Lord West, Alan Johnson MP, Alastair Campbell, Alex Salmond MP, Professor Germaine Greer, June Sarpong, Katy Brand, Lee McQueen, Leslie Ash and Lord Heseltine

jesus fucking christ no

Anyone currently living here would probably be ok whatever happens

― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Wednesday, 22 June 2016 21:34 (16 minutes ago)

there's no reason to be sanguine about this given that 75% of current eu immigrants would not qualify under the general criteria and most of those are from post-2004 accession countries. quite how a paranoid political movement that had derived its success from resentment of eastern europeans would tolerate their continued presence is unclear.

Right. If there is a clear Brexit majority it will be hard to dispute that there is a mandate to "do something".

(xxxp) Lee McQueen is dead... surely?

LOL, it's not Alexander McQueen, it's some Apprentice guy.

lee rigby and steve mcqueen (the actor) are dead
idk who lee mcqueen is but if he was alive when that press release was written then he probably is not dead now

Don't know, it's been a tough campaign.

toss-up for most pointless contribution is currently between wetherspoons dude, katie price, and a lady I don't recognise whose argument for Leave is genuinely 'but what about the baby lambs'

sandy shaw is not really helping things

Were you thinking of a smiths album perhaps?

Xp maybe

NV, fwiw, I am taken by how you came to a decision today (if it holds). It's a personal, humane choice. Basing a decision on yer gut feeling has gotten a bad rep it seems in this whole sordid Brexit affair. How emotions shouldn't override 'facts'. Truth is no one knows how either outcome will play out. Given that uncertainty, and the fact that the harsh noise of pundits, politicians and experts - from both camps - are only making things worse, I don't envy any British citizen tomorrow. Feels to me like voters are set adrift on a sea of uncertainty and then asked: well, how are you going to safe yourself? How are you going to make the 'right' decision? You're on your own. Everyone is. 'Weighing' pros and cons in this seems like such a draining exercise. Not trying to sound like an old hippy, but you can only vote going by the heart, which is what you seem to do.

there's no reason to be sanguine about this given that 75% of current eu immigrants would not qualify under the general criteria and most of those are from post-2004 accession countries. quite how a paranoid political movement that had derived its success from resentment of eastern europeans would tolerate their continued presence is unclear.

Yes, there's definitely a question mark over the legal aspects though the official leave campaign has repeatedly stated that they'd be safe. It would require a huge, but not completely unthinkable, volte-face. It could also mean UK citizens in the rest of the EU losing their rights if we followed that path though. Someone needs to do the jobs that the 75% are currently doing, ultimately. I can't see liberalising non-EU migration being bumped up the agenda.

The right to remain in the UK could potentially stay but access to certain public services, the same university fees as 'domestic' students, etc, might be at risk.

Also, mandatory English skills, etc.

thought the raf behr article in the guardian today was uncharacteristically good. only winced like two three times

Chuka was on R4 earlier for remain and he had a very good rapport with IDS, maybe a male pattern baldness thing - but they made a nauseating duo. Listening to these contemptible shits going through the motions is more evidence to make you want both sides to feel defeated tomorrow. IDS nearly had a follow through when Chuka used the football metaphor about him wanting "our star striker" Corbyn to score some goals.

I am voting remain, mostly on a vague anti-Tory/right wing reflex, which is ridiculous when you think how many Tories in both parties are remain. But when all you can see is decades of Tory rule ahead it is hard to envisage any vote you make having a positive impact, just maybe slowing down this juggernaut slightly.

there wouldn't need to be any volte face because the official leave campaign is redundant in 24 hours and has no autonomous existence. whoever comes next is not bound to honour that any more than all the other unfulfillable or meaningless promises made during this campagin will be honoured. maybe dominic cummings will personally let 15 latvians live in his shed during the expatriation proceeedings as an expression of solidarity, assuming they didn't already lose their jobs during the 3% fall of gdp that andrew lilico considers an acceptable price for uk independence.

how did this gobshite get on the telly
[it's Toby Young, I'm switching off]

If remain wins, what happens to b johnson?

Fuck an EU, but I'm still voting Remain for reasons that are roughly congruent with NV and calzino's

Johnson secures the hearts of the bumpkin wing of the party without having to do any actual work until Cameron steps down, which i assume has always been the plan

If remain wins, what happens to b johnson?
― coygbiv (NickB), Wednesday, June 22, 2016 9:25 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

next prime minister innit

Christ, how do we kill off that gobshite?

john barnes otm, though i can get behind the leave campaign tactic of naming random celebrities and saying they're going to vote leave

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/22/john-barnes-gove-says-voting-leave-wrong?CMP=share_btn_tw

xp nah Johnson is a busted flush if remain win tomorrow

Theresa May, next PM.