Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

I'm still thinking it'll be about 40:60 leave:remain. But I'm in Scotland, so I might have been swayed by that. More confident than I was with the indyref which I thought would be closer than it was.

That's my guess as well, give or take.

> will be well over 70% turnout

radio4, i don't remember who, said that a low turnout favours Leave, a higher turnout favours Remain BUT a very high turnout favours Leave again. not sure how they worked that out, but it was interesting.

yougov doesn't agree: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/21/assessing-impact-turnout-eu-referendum/

ah, the ft does - https://next.ft.com/content/35f15744-37cd-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

"Low levels of turnout ought to favour the Leavers, who are thought to be more motivated by their antipathy towards the EU. Somewhat higher turnout should maximise the Remain vote, given that younger people — who tend not to show up to vote — are more likely to be Europhile.

But if turnout reaches exceptional levels — say, 80 per cent or more — this could suggest an advantage for Leave as it implies that the most anti-establishment, anti-EU citizens, who might never normally bother to go to the ballot box, have come out in favour of Brexit."

i am slightly worried about the several hundred thousand people at glastonbury, who i peg as mostly remainers, but probably not bothered enough to arrange postal votes.

If Bobby George and Jeremy Clarkson are both voting in, it can't be out surely?

Might be a lot of London commuters not getting back in time to vote thanks to the rail network washing away in the storm.

French air traffic control strikes and bad weather stopping voters returning from Europe as well - some potential stay voters not being able to leave, I'm sure there is some irony in there somewhere

sod the staying up idea : time to get drunk, hit the playlist, stop stressing, and wake up tomorrow morning when its (supposedly) all over.

i am slightly worried about the several hundred thousand people at glastonbury

Glastonbury attendance is 135,000

something i always wondered: what happens if someone submits a postal vote and then dies before polling day? does their vote still count?

yes

there was some old cunt in a daily mail story who managed to achieve that posthumous feat

It was nutter central coming home on the motorway today. must be people trying to get 'home' in time..

seems statistically inevitable. rotten bastard though eh xp

stupid question but is turnout a % of people who've registered to vote, or of all people of voting age etc?

the latter

I wonder about the effect that a remain vote will have on the right (especially the far right). The narrative has to change from Britain being a victim of Europe to something else. Their countrymen are no longer fellow victims but participants in their perceived oppression; collaborators or, at best, dupes. Obviously there is already a lot of that rhetoric on the far right, but I worry that it might increase it.

how long does it take for them to delete the croakers off the electoral register? There seems to have been a lot of dead voter fraud in the US in recent years but I can't recall much here.

how long does it take for them to delete the croakers off the electoral register?

back in the happy times of 2012 : when you registered a death, there was a single form that was for all various govt departments.

of course this may have been killed off, but i got a very quick acknowledgement re bh in regards to her benefits/electoral role etc.

was all rather impressive given the usual ineptitude that we have come to accept.

:(

who is the form team atm for tv coverage - bbc or itv?

Sorry I used such an indelicate term mark. I was more thinking about 90 year old Tories when I posted.

'so, if I vote for "Leave", that means "Leave it as it is?""

(In before expiry)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing in ooh, two minutes.

Sorry I used such an indelicate term mark. I was more thinking about 90 year old Tories when I posted.

not a problem.
i know that.

https://twitter.com/dmccaffreysky/status/746085435915501568

Does that mean Farage has seen some of the private exit polls?

he is an ex-banker and the polls were conducted by banks right?

Pound gone nuts http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPUSD=X

92% remain according to bookies now

Is that a glitch? Pound fell 17 cents against the dollar three minutes after polls closed and then immediately recovered?

I wonder about the effect that a remain vote will have on the right (especially the far right). The narrative has to change from Britain being a victim of Europe to something else.

It will change to Britain being a victim of the vote being a con, picking up a few nasty intimations on the way (you can see that on that tweet, people already mad that there's been fraud by 'globalists').

If it's close they will be absolutely sure they would have won without Cox dying.

No one at this point is doubting it will be a remain right? Just seems it's v important if remain strikes up either 50-55% (bad for all involved) or 56% and up (not good but better for all involved). If it's not distinctive a choice, the UK an EU will keep each other in a stronghold. Stand stil.

I wonder if farage will resign again.

I wouldn't count any chickens at this stage. Turnout will be crucial.

Yeah, I considered taking a half day tomorrow but then I remembered how that went last time.

The enormous pound spike thing is probably real but isn't necessarily due to large trades. Most markets are shut right now.

IN, IN, IN, IN, IN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmmZHN0Wi-w

LBI, is there much appetite for a proper referendum (rather than a proxy referendum on Ukrainian potato tariffs) in the Netherlands?

odds are way in favour for remain - 9-1 v 1-11 - fear the fallout but at least it's looking good for the present

Sadly, ShariVari, there is. Same right wing nutters that threw that disgrace of a Ukranian referendum in our lap are already ligned up. Wilders - our Farage but even more of a blatant racist - orgasms at the very idea of a "Nexit". And he's the biggest party in the polls. Still, a Nexit referendum would require a change of the constitution, which would take years so is disheartening for the far right.

So it won't happen soon. But are these truly dark times? Most definitely.

IPSOS MORI Brexit poll Remain 54% Leave 46%

Now I've got the phrase "lorem ipsos, memento mori" going round in my head. Stupid brainworms.

Ben Riley-Smith
‏@benrileysmith

HOW PARTIES VOTED
(YouGov poll)
Tory 43 Remain, 57 Leave
Labour 69 Remain, 31 Leave
Libs 73 Remain, 27 Leave
Ukip: 7 Remain, 93 Leave

Lol, why would any UKIP people vote remain?!

Ukip: 7 Remain, 93 Leave

clearly there were some that did not quite realise the whole point of UKIPs raison d'etre.

xpost.

they used pencils

(stolen joek)

Hahahaha