Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

Hugh Abbot: He actually said this is exactly the kind of thing we should be doing.

Malcolm Tucker: What did he actually say?

Hugh Abbot: He said this is exactly the sort of thing we should be doing.

Malcolm Tucker: 'SHOULD' be doing. 'Should' does not mean 'yes'.

The British people would rightly expect triggering article 50 to start straight away.
We could give that £350m to the NHS
Diet lemonade, made "with" "real" lemons

ordinary lemons, decent lemons

lemmings more like

https://twitter.com/sayeedawarsi/status/746721412942073857

OUT 17,000,000 IN 48%

She talks passionately about extending the provision of English language education, and it sounds wonderful. But if that's what she's really talking about, why not announce that her government will move heaven and earth to help everyone in the country learn English? Why frighten immigrants with the threat of a health service that won't treat them in an emergency unless they know how to say "cardiac arrest" in English?

"Because it's about working out which direction we're going in."

Thx Baroness Warsi. Who could have predicted this?

Forgot all this stuff from earlier about Scotland having a veto over Brexit. That'd kill the patient to cure it though http://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/746733571952369664

Lawyers say Cameron's remarks could count as Article 50 notification. Ffs http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36631518

I would imagine there's at least a form to fill in

following on from stet, looks like an interesting doc probably worth reading in full: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf

can someone plot out the timeline for me
- unclear whether PM can notify under prerogative or parliament has to ratify
- if latter, current parliament is roughly 70% remain so they won't vote in favour of notifying
- we'll need a new parliament then
- safe assumption that the requirements of the FTPA can be got round?
- tory manifesto pledges to enact manifesto
- can tories win GE on that? assume a whole bunch of ppl who voted them in currently assumed their referendum pledge would be inconsequential
- UKIP voters would presumably coalesce around them tho

- if latter, current parliament is roughly 70% remain so they won't vote in favour of notifying

i guess we'll see over the next few days, but my impression is that most of them think of themselves as too "honourable" to vote their personal opinion in opposition after an explicit referendum mandate.

If it's unclear whether the PM can use prerogative, it means he can.

Even if it went to parliament as a delaying tactic, i think you'd have a fair proportion of MPs voting to leave because they feel the result of the referendum needs to be respected (and they fear getting turfed out by UKIP if they don't).

idk if Labour could win a GE campaigning to ignore the referendum even if they wanted to (which they appear not to).

Honestly, if it's not going to happen, i think the Scottish / NI veto is the most likely route.

i'm sure there's plenty of ways it could legally be stopped. i just don't think there's anyone who wants to who is also able to.

Looking at all the possible 'escape routes' being sought, a question for you remainers: would you really want gov to pass by the result of the referendum? Or to have a second referendum even? I'm all about remain too, but the petition for a second referendum, within 48h after the result, is rather rich.

the petition is a load of shit and not relevant to anything

I agree, its baffling 2m people already signed the bloody thing.

"I'm waiting for a knee, I'm on the waiting list. But I know a couple of immigrants that got a new knee before me. That's why I voted brexit." (Lady in Boston, Lincolnshire, on Dutch telly)

a petition was inevitable given the mood

You mean it was a way for remainers to direct their frustration over the loss at?

kind of a loaded way of putting it, more that a lot of people disapproved of the referendum in the first place and won't accept leaving

The petition's daft with arbitrary figures. People want to react in any way possible but I would've thought the nearest thing possible would be some kind of legal challenge as to how it was sold. Which apparently is not going to hold water.

I don't actually know what I want. I want the govt to say 'you realised it wasn't legally binding, didn't you' and everyone to go 'oh yeah, our mistake, btw I saw some sarcastic tweets and I'm not racist any more'

also free knees for all

bet cameron wishes he hadn't won a majority last year

these behind the scenes anonymously sourced post mortem pieces are always more fun when they're about badly run republican presidential campaigns

http://www.politico.eu/article/how-david-cameron-lost-brexit-eu-referendum-prime-minister-campaign-remain-boris-craig-oliver-jim-messina-obama/

Looking at all the possible 'escape routes' being sought, a question for you remainers: would you really want gov to pass by the result of the referendum? Or to have a second referendum even? I'm all about remain too, but the petition for a second referendum, within 48h after the result, is rather rich.

If it was the other way around and the result was 52% remain, then I'd be saying "that's it" — but also totally expecting Farage and crew to continue agitating and probably petitioning, and would be OK with that.

Given the massive impact of this, plus the retraction of nearly every Exit campaign promise, plus the evident buyer's remorse, plus that I'm certain Boris didn't want remain, I think it's not a strong enough result to silence all opposition.

I think parliament would therefore be justified in finding some way out of what is manifestly not in our best interests. The Scottish veto is not that way out; the new election with a party campaigning for remain seems a better one.

Assuming Labour can reconnect with the North in 3 months. Shit.

Boris didn't want exit, I meant

Labour is shot, is the thing, and any future positive scenario depends on a strong, convincing Labour party. If Brexit, then we desperately need Labour to win an election held soon so that they can stop the Tories being the ones rewriting all the expiring EU laws. If some fantasy non-Brexit, Labour would have to be the ones making the arguments. But frankly it's NAGL for Labour to disregard the manifest wishes of massive parts of the non-London parts of the UK?

an explicit referendum mandate

52% to 48% is not a fucking mandate! Even bloody Farage said that (when he thought it was the margin he was going to lose by, not win by).

(xposts)

Scottish / NI veto is the most likely route

I assume NI won't veto when DUP are for leave. Scotland might veto but would they rather hope for IndyRef 2 while leaving the non-Indy option to look as bad as possible?

The petition's daft with arbitrary figures

Daft and arbritrary like the referendum amirite etc

(no, I don't know what I want either. would of course be delighted to discover it was all a dream but can't see a real way out of it and fear serious unrest or at least big UKIP surges if one is attempted. Also, if we are given another chance to vote on it, be it a second referendum or a general election, will it really go any better for Remain? There are a few Leave regrets, but a million? And who could possibly win a GE on a Remain ticket?)

Have been hoping Cameron feels really fucking bad rn as some tiny shred of not-quite-compensatory schadenfreude, but sense Cameron has had many years of practice at not feeling personally responsible for anything

hey peeps i hear that the republican party doesn't technically _have_ to nominate trump

the petition is a load of shit and not relevant to anything

This, pretty much.

Feeling you Stet, but parliament or gov finding a 'way out' is betraying the 52%, no? Regardless of why or how they voted leave, I'll-informed or not etc. "Best interest" seems something people disagree on, to say the least. I can't conceibably see them do it. If you use a democratic tool like a referendum, to ignore or twist or obstruct the result seems very anti-democratic. Or elitist ("sorry ppl, you voted the wrong way"). I wouldn't want to be a pm and pull a rabbit out of the hat to ignore the result tbh.

only 24 hours ofc & a lot of politics still to go but some scottish unionists (activists & columnists mostly, no politicians understandably) making some interesting noises north of the border this morning
― cozen, Saturday, June 25, 2016 9:36 AM (9 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

how do you mean?
― Bein' Sean Bean (LocalGarda), Saturday, June 25, 2016 9:39 AM (9 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sorry meant to come back to this. massive pinch of salt obv given context is prone to change day-by-day for next wee while, but certainly been expressions from some unionist commentators & activists that they will actually countenance scottish independence now, assuming it means continuing membership of the EU

e.g.https://medium.com/@AndrewWilsonAJW/not-in-our-name-25dfdef21d9b#.d5i8ztgm0, https://stephenorourke.org/2016/06/25/scotlands-future/

like the govt give a shit about "betraying" 40% of the country

the best way of ignoring the result is probably to delay it, tinker with it, bog it down in bureaucracy and talk about it being a win for decent people until people assume we've left the EU

the petition is a load of shit and not relevant to anything

― nakhchivan, Saturday, June 25, 2016 6:04 PM (40 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this cannot be repeated enough

the long way around must be taken

Cynical. But not inapt.

Xp

Tracer: very much depends on what they campaign on. This referendum morally binds only this present government, and legally binds nothing. If a new government is elected on the manifesto of staying in/re-running referendum that's a totally legitimate thing. But depends on strong Labour, totally.

This was a high turnout ref wth a close result. The impact is still quite hard to guess, I think. The remain side's anger could lead to a surge in, fuck knows, the Libs as equally as it could lead soft Leavers to UKIP. And if Leavers feel lied to enough, that won't help Nigel "NHS thing was a mistake" Farage at all.

But for the present time delay while promising to get around to it is the order of the day. Only Farage wants an A50 now. Oh, and Corbyn, sometimes.

And hell, it's not like this would be the first referendum ever that was been re-run until it got the right result. Hell, it wouldn't even be the first Euro referendum,.

https://next.ft.com/content/45244ac8-3afc-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

Jeremy Haywood tells civil servants “the will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered”

A coworker's cousin made this to express his feelings about having just earned his British passport, after months of studying and paperwork, right before the vote.

http://m.imgur.com/yOaOv0V?r

Labour can't campaign explicitly on the promise that they will reverse/defy the will of the non-London parts of the country. There are too many Ketterings, remember?

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7632

But Kettering was lied to. I mean this only half as posture: if we leave the EU and they still have immigration and the NHS is still fucked they'll be just as angry and we'll be in an even worse fix.

There's something interesting in this Greenland idea. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-scottish-referendum-scotland-eu-remain-nicola-sturgeon-snp-a7100736.html

Referendum to see if just England wants to leave; saving the union in the process? Some pretty weird stuff being dreamt up here, right enough. Everyone still at Bargaining, I guess.

the best way of ignoring the result is probably to delay it, tinker with it, bog it down in bureaucracy and talk about it being a win for decent people until people assume we've left the EU

otm, I suspect the soft brexiters like Johnson are eyeing this scheme up. Alternatively, second ref after it's been bogged down in protracted negotiations & the economy is in a terrifying state - the new tory gov can make confusing claims about ratifying a special status, exit plus or some shit and sell it to the people

which will leave a very very angry rump

gov will probably placate them with repatriations, & british jobs laws

good times

Man x-posts again: kinder, this was the question: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" "Should" is not a word that contains any strong legal sense of direction -- the question as posed is prima facia an advisory question. "TWU should not post on ILX political threads" -- that question would probably get an unanimous "yes" vote, but it wouldn't legally compel an instaban.

I know that accusing people of thinking like lawyers or looking at situations as if they were conspiracies is general a foolproof shut down on the interwebz, but we are talking about legislations and dudes in suits who meet in smoky rooms to plot against nations, so the dog won't hunt here.

I was probably reading too much into the 'should'. Perhaps they could've had 'how would you feel about leaving the EU' and then you have to circle an emoji