Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

7 hrs ·
From the guardians comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

they fucked it up good and proper, didn't they?

was just about to post that. The result is so tight that the tories are just as split over Europe as they ever were — and Remain iirc still has a Tory MP majority, no doubt strengthened by the fact that like the comment says the consequences are now evident — break-up of the union, collapse of Sterling, beer chilled etc.

Johnson really is fucked, but so is any candidate agitating for immediate exit. Phew, I think?

there's a reasonable chance the final ballot could be johnson vs may, so there would be no doctrinaire committed pro-leave psycho for the membership to select

don't think there's enough knowledge about how_tory_mps_really_feel to say, even the stupid ones are mostly canny enough to keep shtum or dissimulate about their real priorities

xp

the depressing thing about this situation is that there is no clear leader for the opposition either.

Surely this is probably one of the most messed up political situations ever where the party in charge still doesn't really have an opposition?

miss u alan johnson

Self-identified conservative voters were about 60/40 in favour of leave. Actual Tory members (average age 59) are probably even more heavily skewed towards exit. Absolutely no way do they not vote in someone who promises to leave the EU. Around 50% of backbench Tory MPs voted to leave even with all the pressure from Cameron and Osborne not to.

Europe isn't going to let Britain wait around forever. There was a report on AFP this morning that the French government had requested a new PM be appointed "within days". Johnson knew precisely what would happen with the markets, the tortured negotiations and Scotland before the referendum and the only surprise could have been that he actually won.

Fail to follow through on the result and he'll be replaced, either by the party or by the electorate. The Tories will lose seats to UKIP and Labour. There are more than enough weirdo Tory MPs fully committed to taking the UK out of Europe at all costs to trigger a no confidence vote at any point. That's pretty much why we had the stupid referendum in the first place.

As much as i'd love to believe that everyone has suddenly come to their senses, a couple of Daily Mail comment sections and interviews with empty-headed protest voters having second thoughts isn't evidence that anyone really has.

pretty sure there is an opposition that is called the labour party and it has a leader called jeremy corbyn and iirc the only ppl who suggest otherwise are just dustbin of history blair nostalgic wastemen

Surely this is probably one of the most messed up political situations ever where the party in charge still doesn't really have an opposition?

u seem to be ill-informed as to the make up of the current house of commons can i direct u 2 wikipedia?

I don't think it's at all strange to suggest that Corbyn just isn't up to the job even if you do agree with his politics.

Phew, I think?

Not really. It can still get much, much worse than it is now. A lot of outers have voted to get out of the EU and stop immigration. They're going to have a massive sense of betrayal when they realise the latter isn't going to happen, never mind if the former doesn't either. What do they do then? I can see a hideous lurch to the far right.

Who can advise small businesses whose work directly involves EU funding? Are they meant to proceed as though we are definitely in or out now? People are already being made redundant because of this.

^ this is a key point. Staying in the EU would be good for business, leaving would be bad, mucking about for years so nobody knows what is happening would be terrible.

Thank goodness someone is around to remind us Corbyn is the opposition leader. Can't wait till someone reminds him.

NBS otm. if you think this country is unusually reactionary and intolerant and vulnerable to racist populism right now, imagine what it would be like if the "establishment" attempt to overrule the vote.

there was a lot of commentbox fuck off sentiment around the referendum, given time to contemplate what it would mean for the uk's international power they would probably be unlikely to agree - these are mostly authoritarians and fans of 'the forces' etc

yes, when the scottish referendum was first mooted there was a lot of 'lol fuck off then' from... well, might as well call them fascists from here on in in i guess, but when polling day drew near and there were a couple of opinion poll leads for 'Yes', it was striking how fervently English nationalists rallied to the defence of the union. English nationalism almost impossible to disentangle from british nationalism imo, so probably impossible for scotland to secede on anything approaching amicable terms. Which doesn't mean it won't happen: the increasing bitterness which is likely to colour anglo-scottish relations from here on probably makes independence more likely. The days of George Osborne being a bit threatening about the pound will be looked back on as a golden age of cross-border mutual respect and co-operation.

Thank goodness someone is around to remind us Corbyn is the opposition leader. Can't wait till someone reminds him.

I think he knows tho. Some ppl have maybe watched a few too many superhero films and have unrealistic expectations of what a political leader is meant 2 be doing

yeah that one film about a person with an actual spine

I do like Corbyn and (most) of his policies.

But he just won't get elected. Not that because the electorate won't like him, but the press would be awful about it and he won't be heard.

Takes a superhero to have the constitutional fate of he uk and ongoing descent into racist populism rate above a "7" on his list of priorities?

His two main points have been that the referendum result needs to be respected (against the wishes of Labour voters) and that migrants can't be scapegoated any more (against the wishes of a lot of leave voters). He might not be making the right calls but he's not making the easy ones.

^

'with an actual spine' lol fuck off armchair general cunt

corbynista lowering tone of debate there with hideous online abuse. But seriously, i'm sure the corbyn haterz will get their way next week, and i wish them luck with their fixation on the cult of personality and hope that the glib PPE gimp elected to replace Him will manage to paper over the enormous contradictions of the labour party as currently constituted

i think magic squaddie dan jarvis will bring the help for heroes masses onside

The only thing that matters now is that Labour be responsible for the shape of post-EU Britain and not the Tories. Everything else is a sideshow imo.

http://i1.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article5669132.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Dan-Jarvis-main.jpg
he's ready and "up to the job"

what better way to break from the labour party's toxic legacies in iraq & afghanistan

just in time for chilcot too

Well Hilary Benn has set the ball rolling, it seems. I suspect that Corbyn will not renew his candidacy if he is ousted.

So much for phew, indeed
Vote split // On the #EUref result (Remain / Leave):
Happy: 4% / 92%
Unhappy: 88% / 1%
Indifferent: 7% / 5%
(via ComRes)

am i reading that right? 1% of people who voted to leave are unhappy with the result?

that's only 175,000 people regretting their choice

of course the thought of a corbyn led labour party actually winning power is even more repugnant to much (most?) of the PLP than corbyn being unelectable.

xp That's what ComRes say. NB: ComRes pretty bad at polling in the run-up, and some questions over this one. YouGov shold be better.

what % of leave voters are motivated by lust for chaos

I'm motivated by lust for chaos which is why I voted remain: Leave slogan 'it's riskier to stay in' was decisive 4 me

Perhaps they could've had 'how would you feel about leaving the EU' and then you have to circle an emoji

― kinder, Saturday, June 25, 2016 8:18 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I voted remain but i'm now happy leave won but i want the refernedum to b run again so remain might win but i wd probably vote leave in that event how u like them apples ComRes

guy i went to school with who posted this on facebook on thursday morning. he works for capita now.

"Still can't decide. I know it's daft but a part of me wants to vote out to see what will happen. Something more interesting than the boring status quo. I'll see which box my pencil wanders tomorrow morning..."

His two main points have been that the referendum result needs to be respected (against the wishes of Labour voters) and that migrants can't be scapegoated any more (against the wishes of a lot of leave voters). He might not be making the right calls but he's not making the easy ones.

― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Saturday, June 25, 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They look both difficult and right calls to me

Lame anarchism - another 500K worth of votes

Suspect there is a very strong correlation between leave voters and people who frequently use the crying with laugher emoji http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/94/f0/94f03e8e72647373f93d5271ee594cfb.png

Nick Clegg called it. Even down to the total dearth of trade negotiators https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/

It turns out the US doesn't have enough trade negotiators to deal with this either: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/out-of-luck

Well Hilary Benn has set the ball rolling, it seems. I suspect that Corbyn will not renew his candidacy if he is ousted.

― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Saturday, June 25, 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Be disappointing if he didn't stand but its been on the cards ever since he has been elected. Ultimately I would want to see Corbyn fighting a gen election as it would probably mean many of these PLP idiots losing their seats (of course keeping their jobs: why they are doing this) - ultimately a split with the Corbyn faction keeping the Labour 'brand' might be something worth the fight. Probably not at this point in proceedings.

You could get a refined version of Red UKIP with War hero Dan at the helm but keeping the actual UKIP march at bay would be offset by losses in metropolitan areas that are pro-Corbyn? Maybe people in London and Manchester have infinite patience with the PLP and they would come out anyway.

At the least the media management would be satisfactory from now on.

Wow at those two links. Clegg's summary is pretty impressive.

Xpost

I think i sort of get the trade negotiation thing. But if the US DOESN'T negotiate a trade deal with the UK over the next few years, what does that mean again exactly? There will still be trade, it will just be on... unfavorable terms?

It's smart LibDem season. Farron pledging to go back into the EU http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/liberal-democrats-pledge-take-britain-back-european-union

xp yes, I think companies would then pay the same import/export rates that private citizens do. Which can be pretty huge.

Excellent piece.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale?CMP=fb_gu

Merkel in no rush for Article 50 http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-britain-to-decide-on-start-of-eu-separation-talks/