Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

Well Hilary Benn has set the ball rolling, it seems. I suspect that Corbyn will not renew his candidacy if he is ousted.

So much for phew, indeed
Vote split // On the #EUref result (Remain / Leave):
Happy: 4% / 92%
Unhappy: 88% / 1%
Indifferent: 7% / 5%
(via ComRes)

am i reading that right? 1% of people who voted to leave are unhappy with the result?

that's only 175,000 people regretting their choice

of course the thought of a corbyn led labour party actually winning power is even more repugnant to much (most?) of the PLP than corbyn being unelectable.

xp That's what ComRes say. NB: ComRes pretty bad at polling in the run-up, and some questions over this one. YouGov shold be better.

what % of leave voters are motivated by lust for chaos

I'm motivated by lust for chaos which is why I voted remain: Leave slogan 'it's riskier to stay in' was decisive 4 me

Perhaps they could've had 'how would you feel about leaving the EU' and then you have to circle an emoji

― kinder, Saturday, June 25, 2016 8:18 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I voted remain but i'm now happy leave won but i want the refernedum to b run again so remain might win but i wd probably vote leave in that event how u like them apples ComRes

guy i went to school with who posted this on facebook on thursday morning. he works for capita now.

"Still can't decide. I know it's daft but a part of me wants to vote out to see what will happen. Something more interesting than the boring status quo. I'll see which box my pencil wanders tomorrow morning..."

His two main points have been that the referendum result needs to be respected (against the wishes of Labour voters) and that migrants can't be scapegoated any more (against the wishes of a lot of leave voters). He might not be making the right calls but he's not making the easy ones.

― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Saturday, June 25, 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They look both difficult and right calls to me

Lame anarchism - another 500K worth of votes

Suspect there is a very strong correlation between leave voters and people who frequently use the crying with laugher emoji http://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.com/cache/94/f0/94f03e8e72647373f93d5271ee594cfb.png

Nick Clegg called it. Even down to the total dearth of trade negotiators https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/

It turns out the US doesn't have enough trade negotiators to deal with this either: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/out-of-luck

Well Hilary Benn has set the ball rolling, it seems. I suspect that Corbyn will not renew his candidacy if he is ousted.

― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Saturday, June 25, 2016 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Be disappointing if he didn't stand but its been on the cards ever since he has been elected. Ultimately I would want to see Corbyn fighting a gen election as it would probably mean many of these PLP idiots losing their seats (of course keeping their jobs: why they are doing this) - ultimately a split with the Corbyn faction keeping the Labour 'brand' might be something worth the fight. Probably not at this point in proceedings.

You could get a refined version of Red UKIP with War hero Dan at the helm but keeping the actual UKIP march at bay would be offset by losses in metropolitan areas that are pro-Corbyn? Maybe people in London and Manchester have infinite patience with the PLP and they would come out anyway.

At the least the media management would be satisfactory from now on.

Wow at those two links. Clegg's summary is pretty impressive.

Xpost

I think i sort of get the trade negotiation thing. But if the US DOESN'T negotiate a trade deal with the UK over the next few years, what does that mean again exactly? There will still be trade, it will just be on... unfavorable terms?

It's smart LibDem season. Farron pledging to go back into the EU http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/liberal-democrats-pledge-take-britain-back-european-union

xp yes, I think companies would then pay the same import/export rates that private citizens do. Which can be pretty huge.

Excellent piece.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale?CMP=fb_gu

Merkel in no rush for Article 50 http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-eu-referendum-angela-merkel-britain-to-decide-on-start-of-eu-separation-talks/

I have to say Farron is quite impressive too. He's bold and calm and seems fearless. I guess he doesn't have Anyang to lose but I like what he's saying.

Anything *

I think i sort of get the trade negotiation thing. But if the US DOESN'T negotiate a trade deal with the UK over the next few years, what does that mean again exactly? There will still be trade, it will just be on... unfavorable terms?

― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Sunday, 26 June 2016 9:51 AM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Unfavourable, with higher tariffs and more complex. Having worked on a bunch of impiety contracts recently, it's likely that every contract and every piece of accounting work will have to be redone, which will be time consuming and expensive, and probably end up less favourable for British companies as hey won't be an entrepôt for Europe, just dealing on behalf of a single, small market.

Good lord that article jed posted about the town in Wales is insane and makes me scared about Trump

The Politico article about how Cameron lost was very good, I thought - I agree that it's not Corbyn's job to dig Cameron out of his own hole.

It also confirms something that I was about to suggest - that what his job is, is not to have a southern version of the IndyRef, to stand 'with' the Tories but definitely not beside them.

Looking at all the possible 'escape routes' being sought, a question for you remainers: would you really want gov to pass by the result of the referendum? Or to have a second referendum even?

Yes absolutely yes definitely yes - what possible benefit is there for sifting around for the scintillas of "the view of the people", when what we're discussing is the UK leaving (and possibly breaking) the EU?

Corbyn sacks Benn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36632539

great job Labour

Osborne apparently making calls for support now. I wonder what his stance on A50 would be? Something that makes life difficult for Labour is the usual answer.

I can't believe there won't be an election before the end of the year now.

lol labour party be like a spy vs spy strip these days

Something that makes life difficult for Labour is the usual answer.

Osborne's political career has foundered on the rocks of there actually being more to politics than the zero-sum game of labour v tory. He's finished. Off you fuck to the American free market think tank lecture circuit.

o no, now who will give our bombing of other nations the moral sheen it requires

(xpost)

Reading the various thinkpieces on Johnson and Gove screwing themselves over and wondering, how is it that they didn't see that a Brexit vote was, if not 'likely', entirely possible? From the press conference faces I'm convinced they didn't actually want out, but they're not stupid. Can they really have not had a 'plan' for the first few weeks after this outcome, if not beyond that? Can they have really not foreseen the possibility that Cameron would leave it all up to them from here on in? I'm missing something huge here.

Your analysis is correct. You aren't missing anything. They don't have a plan, it's that simple.

from the TPM piece:

If anything, we'll probably be more concerned about where to locate the UK's nukes that are currently located in Scotland.

Time to rewrite one of the Mouse That Roared movies for Billy Connolly!

xps yeah, at the very least not coherent or matching plans - I sort of imagine each of them had a rough fiction in their head about how this might work, but from the level of 'How will Calais work?', to 'Who will actually negotiate?' through 'Will there be violence in Northern Ireland?' to 'What shall we do about immigration?', nothing… nothing that could be called a plan. Like HQ must be a room with populist opportunists, weird sovereignty nerds,sentimental Powellite Imperialists and flat-out racists arguing about what's next.

If you're right, and I guess you must be, it's staggering that the way the media treats politicians - and its entire job - means that it was possible for the extent of this non-plan to come as a surprise.

Or my naivety is staggering. Or both.

fucking hell at the wales article

consent of Scotland's Parliament, governments of Nothern Ireland and Wales required by European Communities Act??
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/746741523522400256 big excerpt pasted in as quote so goes way past old character limit

Not that it will affect anything right now, but if we're shaping up for a general election, the Green Party also need to elect a new leader.

Glad Benn has been sacked. The party members and unions won't vote for Jarvis, Any left wing leader (Nandy or Lewis are viable if Corbyn steps aside) is going to get similar treatment from the Blairites wanting a dramatic shift to the right and the press. Sympathetic journalists love to imagine that if only he was more organised and slicker things would be different but the press would kill any genuinely left wing movement even if you had Vegas-era Elvis fronting it.

Corbyn is probably right that the only way for Labour to win is to build a grass roots movement like Podemos and economic disaffection post-EU is more likely to make that happen over the next few years than in a generation but Podemos didn't have 200-odd MPs with the knives out. There is a risk that Corbyn won't find enough people willing to work with him to fill a shadow cabinet.

Ebbw Vale has been fucked for decades. EU investment has been positive but it came alongside years of the Tories under Major ploughing money into it to attract inward investment as well and they were not much more popular. When the mining industry collapsed a huge effort was made to bring in low-to-medium-skilled manufacturing and assembly. Almost all the new jobs went to women, bringing new people into the workforce but doing nothing directly for the people who had been made redundant. That probably increased resentment. The EU funding has been great but, again, aimed at young people and not the long-term unemployed. You had lots of older people moved on to sickness benefits to mask the fact that they were actually unemployed and have recently gone through the humiliation of health assessments and cuts to benefits, etc. It may be a case of a town voting against its best interests but there is a huge disparity in who economic regeneration has helped.

the press would kill any genuinely left wing movement even if you had Vegas-era Elvis fronting it.

irl smile

Corbyn is probably right that the only way for Labour to win is to build a grass roots movement like Podemos

yeah i thought he was the party's last chance but i'm much closer to exterminate the brutes at this point

ty ShariVari, NV, nakhchivan, & many others for quality posts on this topic

xxp to NickB - Green Party leader in the US just came out in favor of the vote:

http://www.jill2016.com/stein_calls_britain_vote_a_wake_up_call

(really she hedges her bets, using both "victory" and "defeat" selectively within two paragraphs)

crossposted from US primary thread

went about 3 paragraphs in, bet-hedging is right