Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

no sources of funding and no donors behind you (assuming the unions stick with Jeremy).

they'd have the JML guy and...mick hucknall?

Who would ppl's choice be if say Corbyn suddenly quit politics tomorrow?

McDonnell surely

(yeah, if ppl = corbyn support)

A few who have campaigned/pro-Corbyn have certainly lost their nerve. Its understandable but the words 'we don't have a way of forward' or such-like are never far away.

Dan Jarvis or someone who 'understands people's concerns over immigration' is not a way forward. Immigrants and otherwise are being abused and beaten - its not a game. Corbyn's stand on this issue has been important.

xp: I think they are plannig on one candidate against JC - would be stupid otherwise. Don't get a sense that Corbyn would be beaten. Only hope is if he is kept off the ballot but I expect a legal challenge on this if so.

Expecting the party to split.

McDonnell would not get on the ballot.

got to admit I was thinking (or stupidly hoping for) something along the lines of Owen Jones' plan myself - Corbyn for 2-3 years hauling things slowly to the left, then stepping aside for a younger left labour leader who stands a better chance of winning.

there feels a twisted inevitability to a lot of this now it's set in motion that was difficult to imagine even a week ago

If Corbyn is on the ballot, it'll be a single candidate I think, and will be accompanied by explicit threats from MPs, perhaps a majority, to leave the party if Corbyn is re-elected, effectively blackmailing the membership.

"xp: I think they are plannig on one candidate against JC - would be stupid otherwise."

i'm not persuaded by the argument that labour would avoid a particular course of action because it "would be stupid".

has corbyn actually been explicit about migration since friday? all i saw was broad stuff about being anti racist, and the rise in incidents over the weekend, not actually spelling it out wrt immigration. i welcome that tbh, but he still needs to balance that with something that would endear him to those who voted leave. broad pleas for unity will not do that. he needs to acknowledge that anger.

got to admit I was thinking (or stupidly hoping for) something along the lines of Owen Jones' plan myself - Corbyn for 2-3 years hauling things slowly to the left, then stepping aside for a younger left labour leader who stands a better chance of winning.

It's an ok plan, but the PLP were never going to allow it to happen.

"xp: I think they are plannig on one candidate against JC - would be stupid otherwise."

i'm not persuaded by the argument that labour would avoid a particular course of action because it "would be stupid".

― hypnic jerk (rushomancy), Tuesday, June 28, 2016 12:42 PM (36 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lolololol tru dat

I think its what many like Owen Jones might've thought. Corbz as cleanser of Blair-poison, get someone like Tsipras-like ('young', 'dynamic', that kind of bollocks) in the next 2-3 yrs. Unfortunately young dynamic Cameron-Osborne have so screwed it up he finds himself on the ballot for the gen election. Labour have NEVER EVER wanted to win with JC at the helm. Much more frightening than a Tory majority. They looked into their hearts, don't you see?

Ultimately the lack of talented MPs has always been a problem for Corbyn. A leader can direct or provide some cover of charisma or something softer (that's what I get from Atlee, say) but there has to be something around that. They have reached out to others to provide some kind of Economic plan to counter the politics of austerity but events dear boy. Plus the right couldn't stop leaks and the undermining of JC.

Suicide it is.

One of you folks half answered me (appreciated it), but is there any national/international matter that can't be put up for referendum? Can voters break treaties, go to war, etc.? If anything the political chaos makes perfect sense to me, it's the nature/scope of the vote that still boggles. How did the referendum get on the ballot to begin with? What is the process to put something up to a vote? How long does that process take? Can someone simply put a second exit vote on another ballot? Is there a waiting period? Is Cameron dragging his heals on Article 50 out of caution or spite? Could another PM with more support in just, say, a year and a half, campaign to *rejoin* the EU? Or at this point is the 17 million or however many that voted to exit a large enough block that to go counter to their wayward will would be to court greater disaster?

I'd vote for sadiq khan. more realistically, anyone (burnham) who would have a chance to unite the party is too decent to run against corbyn

josh there is no constitution and no rules in the UK and basically no check on govt power, just some sense of precedent, hence some ppl calling it an 'elected dictatorship'

all i saw was broad stuff about being anti racist, and the rise in incidents over the weekend, not actually spelling it out wrt immigration. i welcome that tbh, but he still needs to balance that with something that would endear him to those who voted leave. broad pleas for unity will not do that. he needs to acknowledge that anger.

The 'no upper limit on immigration' before the campaign infuriated a lot of idiots in the remain.

"I welcome that, but"...its the way to Red UKIP my friend. You might get your chance soon.

xp = Burnham has ruled himself out hasn't he, expressed as not taking part against "a coup". Anyhow, might have had enough from last time. Ran an awful campaign.

I can't imagine greater disaster right now, short of the Leave being so outraged at the betrayal they put Farage in power. Which, given his records on elections, I strongly doubt. Britain is clearly full of clowns, but this current fix is more Abilene Paradox than earnest clownery, I think.

The Swiss and others will put anything up for referendum; the Germans won't, not least because of their experience when someone wanted to merge the roles of Chancellor and President. In the UK, the govt can call a referendum on anything it wants whenever it wants. It's easier than calling an election, these days.

Another PM or party could totally campaign to rejoin; I think the plan people are gravitating towards is to not leave and then campaign on staying in. xxp

xp exactly, too much of a party man to have any truck with this shit

most Labour MPs supposedly furious at Burnham's refusal to resign, see it as motivated by cynical self-interest (ie so he can stay popular with the membership for his Manchester mayoral bid or possibly even Lab leadership) rather than a genuine belief that Corbyn can win or that keeping him is a good course of action for party

Yeah, I reckoned that was all about the Mayoral bid too

The only one who gives the air of competence is Cooper and she was resoundingly rejected even before the recent immigration stuff.

Burnham essentially seems quite nice and has a degree of support but doesn't seem to have any kind of credibility within the PLP as a capable political mind.

yeah, that's how I took Burnham's stand. And as a two-time loser, he must have lost the taste for that particular fight a bit. Sensible, imo.

Cooper's competence might start to look appealing tho'

He's definitely won my vote to be the Labour mayoral candidate.

it'll be angela eagle won't it?

Corbyn mentioned the racism when in the commons, I think. I would accept anyone I believed was an actual socialist, I think. But see no reason to change leader, especially for folks who voted for the iraq war whil chilcott is coming.

Sorry to de-rail a little but I’m still not sure I’m quite clear on the way the withdrawal process is supposed to work – from the date that we “activate” Article 50 a countdown starts, ending two years from that date, during which period we have to negotiate the terms of our withdrawal from the EU as well as an agreement setting out the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU / the member states?

And if we reach the end of that time limit without having successfully negotiated terms, either the EU can choose to extend the deadline for withdrawal and allow negotiations to continue or the UK withdraws then and there without any kind of agreement actually being put in place? Are there any circumstances under which the EU would actually contemplate letting that happen and refusing to extend the negotiation deadline? Surely that'd be bad news for all involved

I don't think it will be anyone who has resigned. Watson at Glastonbury could turn out to be a piece of political theatre to distance himself from the plot.

Xps

Much worse news for Britain, which is why the EU is pushing for a50: gives them complete control

xxp I guess what I'm asking is, is it theoretically possible that we activate Article 50 and proceed to spend the next 10 years bogged down in protracted negotiations over the 1001 issues that'll need to be straightened out between UK and the EU member states, with the deadline being continually extended and without us ever actually officially withdrawing from the Union?

ahh thanks Stet.

xps

I think… maybe the 2nd-wave non-plot resigners stand a chance. interesting thought about Watson, but I can't see it playing with the members - something will come out and right from the start he's been painted as the man likely to pull the trigger.

nihilism is sweeping this country, on all fronts

^ Yep

xxxpost

"I welcome that, but"...its the way to Red UKIP my friend. You might get your chance soon.

as someone who has experienced what bnp/NF/ukip supporters can do, i dont esp welcome a red ukip, nor do i want labour to reject immigration. but i would welcome any left wing govt who attempts to understand, address, and placate the anger of their former voters (though perhaps many of these former labour voters are too far gone now, or were always scum in the first place), without necessarily emboldening their racism. this is what labour should do. if things are going to get worse, as looks the case, there needs to be an alternative to what the tories are likely going to put in place, you cant just pretend that element doesnt exist.

Watson at Glastonbury could turn out to be a piece of political theatre to distance himself from the plot.

isn't it really difficult to get tickets to glastonbury?

Any extension of the 2 years would need to be agreed by all states - what are the chances that none of them see a bit of political capital in standing up for themselves vs another sweetheart deal for the UK?

is there any national/international matter that can't be put up for referendum? Can voters break treaties, go to war, etc.? If anything the political chaos makes perfect sense to me, it's the nature/scope of the vote that still boggles. How did the referendum get on the ballot to begin with? What is the process to put something up to a vote? How long does that process take? Can someone simply put a second exit vote on another ballot?

afaik, the government can decide to start a referendum on anything, though there are legally binding ones (like the one we had in 2011 on electoral reform, the only other UK-wide referendum we've had since 1975) and this ridiculous one, which is only advisory.

Is Cameron dragging his heals on Article 50 out of caution or spite?

I think there's a general sense in the pro-Remain establishment that (a) they don't know what the fuck to do, (b) that it's someone else's problem, and perhaps most interestingly (c) that by refusing to trigger 50 themselves the whole Brexit thing might somehow not happen

Could another PM with more support in just, say, a year and a half, campaign to *rejoin* the EU?

Yes.

Or at this point is the 17 million or however many that voted to exit a large enough block that to go counter to their wayward will would be to court greater disaster?

That is probably my assessment.

It *is* difficult to get glasto tickets, unless you are on the media or govvy lists, or know someone who is and arent going.

Could another PM with more support in just, say, a year and a half, campaign to *rejoin* the EU?

Though, of course, by then, unless we're still in this pre-article 50 limbo, we'd be in the complex process of leaving, so God knows whether the EU could be persuaded to allow a U-turn before that was complete.

And who knows if the EU won't be falling apart by then anyway?

perhaps the corbyn camp could discredit watso by revealing the strings he ruthlessly pulled to get to glasto

Anyone know what this debacle is doing to the polls in the EU countries with elections coming up?

Surely we are already a cautionary tale, or perhaps their right wings are saying this proves how difficult it is to go and hence they must do it now before it's impossible?

Or at this point is the 17 million or however many that voted to exit a large enough block that to go counter to their wayward will would be to court greater disaster?

I think that will fracture a bit - a good chunk probably will feel the reality & fear & settle for an EEA fudge with confusing terms on movement of labour. Which'll leave several million ready to join the hard UKIP betrayal we-voted-to-send-them-home camp. Which will give UKIP actual seats. Is that currently best case scenario? Racist collapsing divided britain with a few jobs to go around?

Though, of course, by then, unless we're still in this pre-article 50 limbo, we'd be in the complex process of leaving, so God knows whether the EU could be persuaded to allow a U-turn before that was complete.

So far as I'm aware we're permitted by the terms of the Article to change our minds at any point until we’re officially out? Don’t have a clue what the logistics or fallout of that would be but I gather that’s the rule?

Way too early to call I think, but right now I'm getting the sense that - overlooking the chaos the UK brought over themselves - more people shy away from the idea to ref a possible exit. Hearing a lot of people in my surroundings basically say: "Let's first see how it pans out for the UK, which is looking disastrous atm." Dutch politics (apart from Wilders obv) mouthed a lot of 'this is a wake-up call for us, EU must reform'. But obv remains to be seen if that can actually be achieved.

xp to Stet

"I think its what many like Owen Jones might've thought. Corbz as cleanser of Blair-poison, get someone like Tsipras-like ('young', 'dynamic', that kind of bollocks) in the next 2-3 yrs. Unfortunately young dynamic Cameron-Osborne have so screwed it up he finds himself on the ballot for the gen election. Labour have NEVER EVER wanted to win with JC at the helm. Much more frightening than a Tory majority. They looked into their hearts, don't you see?"

sorry to sound cynical, but if corbyn-labour's platonic ideal of effective leadership is tsipras, they're already screwed.

Sentences to make you shrivel up and die

I know, right?

Thanks. At least our sacrifice is not in vain. Xp

I think you can't stop an A50 once begun. Idea is to prevent govts stopping just to get extra time. But EU could change the rules obv

Art 50 should have been triggered immediately - it was what people voted for. There was no suggestion of 'wait for the next gov' and I don't understand how Cameron thinks we can wait til October. He should have been prepared to trigger it or call a general election.

I think you can't stop an A50 once begun. Idea is to prevent govts stopping just to get extra time. But EU could change the rules obv

right you are, the wording of the report produced by the commission in the House of Lords was unclear on what exactly was meant by "the withdrawal agreement coming into force"