Psychoactive Substances: Rolling UK Politics in The Neo-Con Era

Yeah, I reckoned that was all about the Mayoral bid too

The only one who gives the air of competence is Cooper and she was resoundingly rejected even before the recent immigration stuff.

Burnham essentially seems quite nice and has a degree of support but doesn't seem to have any kind of credibility within the PLP as a capable political mind.

yeah, that's how I took Burnham's stand. And as a two-time loser, he must have lost the taste for that particular fight a bit. Sensible, imo.

Cooper's competence might start to look appealing tho'

He's definitely won my vote to be the Labour mayoral candidate.

it'll be angela eagle won't it?

Corbyn mentioned the racism when in the commons, I think. I would accept anyone I believed was an actual socialist, I think. But see no reason to change leader, especially for folks who voted for the iraq war whil chilcott is coming.

Sorry to de-rail a little but I’m still not sure I’m quite clear on the way the withdrawal process is supposed to work – from the date that we “activate” Article 50 a countdown starts, ending two years from that date, during which period we have to negotiate the terms of our withdrawal from the EU as well as an agreement setting out the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU / the member states?

And if we reach the end of that time limit without having successfully negotiated terms, either the EU can choose to extend the deadline for withdrawal and allow negotiations to continue or the UK withdraws then and there without any kind of agreement actually being put in place? Are there any circumstances under which the EU would actually contemplate letting that happen and refusing to extend the negotiation deadline? Surely that'd be bad news for all involved

I don't think it will be anyone who has resigned. Watson at Glastonbury could turn out to be a piece of political theatre to distance himself from the plot.

Xps

Much worse news for Britain, which is why the EU is pushing for a50: gives them complete control

xxp I guess what I'm asking is, is it theoretically possible that we activate Article 50 and proceed to spend the next 10 years bogged down in protracted negotiations over the 1001 issues that'll need to be straightened out between UK and the EU member states, with the deadline being continually extended and without us ever actually officially withdrawing from the Union?

ahh thanks Stet.

xps

I think… maybe the 2nd-wave non-plot resigners stand a chance. interesting thought about Watson, but I can't see it playing with the members - something will come out and right from the start he's been painted as the man likely to pull the trigger.

nihilism is sweeping this country, on all fronts

^ Yep

xxxpost

"I welcome that, but"...its the way to Red UKIP my friend. You might get your chance soon.

as someone who has experienced what bnp/NF/ukip supporters can do, i dont esp welcome a red ukip, nor do i want labour to reject immigration. but i would welcome any left wing govt who attempts to understand, address, and placate the anger of their former voters (though perhaps many of these former labour voters are too far gone now, or were always scum in the first place), without necessarily emboldening their racism. this is what labour should do. if things are going to get worse, as looks the case, there needs to be an alternative to what the tories are likely going to put in place, you cant just pretend that element doesnt exist.

Watson at Glastonbury could turn out to be a piece of political theatre to distance himself from the plot.

isn't it really difficult to get tickets to glastonbury?

Any extension of the 2 years would need to be agreed by all states - what are the chances that none of them see a bit of political capital in standing up for themselves vs another sweetheart deal for the UK?

is there any national/international matter that can't be put up for referendum? Can voters break treaties, go to war, etc.? If anything the political chaos makes perfect sense to me, it's the nature/scope of the vote that still boggles. How did the referendum get on the ballot to begin with? What is the process to put something up to a vote? How long does that process take? Can someone simply put a second exit vote on another ballot?

afaik, the government can decide to start a referendum on anything, though there are legally binding ones (like the one we had in 2011 on electoral reform, the only other UK-wide referendum we've had since 1975) and this ridiculous one, which is only advisory.

Is Cameron dragging his heals on Article 50 out of caution or spite?

I think there's a general sense in the pro-Remain establishment that (a) they don't know what the fuck to do, (b) that it's someone else's problem, and perhaps most interestingly (c) that by refusing to trigger 50 themselves the whole Brexit thing might somehow not happen

Could another PM with more support in just, say, a year and a half, campaign to *rejoin* the EU?

Yes.

Or at this point is the 17 million or however many that voted to exit a large enough block that to go counter to their wayward will would be to court greater disaster?

That is probably my assessment.

It *is* difficult to get glasto tickets, unless you are on the media or govvy lists, or know someone who is and arent going.

Could another PM with more support in just, say, a year and a half, campaign to *rejoin* the EU?

Though, of course, by then, unless we're still in this pre-article 50 limbo, we'd be in the complex process of leaving, so God knows whether the EU could be persuaded to allow a U-turn before that was complete.

And who knows if the EU won't be falling apart by then anyway?

perhaps the corbyn camp could discredit watso by revealing the strings he ruthlessly pulled to get to glasto

Anyone know what this debacle is doing to the polls in the EU countries with elections coming up?

Surely we are already a cautionary tale, or perhaps their right wings are saying this proves how difficult it is to go and hence they must do it now before it's impossible?

Or at this point is the 17 million or however many that voted to exit a large enough block that to go counter to their wayward will would be to court greater disaster?

I think that will fracture a bit - a good chunk probably will feel the reality & fear & settle for an EEA fudge with confusing terms on movement of labour. Which'll leave several million ready to join the hard UKIP betrayal we-voted-to-send-them-home camp. Which will give UKIP actual seats. Is that currently best case scenario? Racist collapsing divided britain with a few jobs to go around?

Though, of course, by then, unless we're still in this pre-article 50 limbo, we'd be in the complex process of leaving, so God knows whether the EU could be persuaded to allow a U-turn before that was complete.

So far as I'm aware we're permitted by the terms of the Article to change our minds at any point until we’re officially out? Don’t have a clue what the logistics or fallout of that would be but I gather that’s the rule?

Way too early to call I think, but right now I'm getting the sense that - overlooking the chaos the UK brought over themselves - more people shy away from the idea to ref a possible exit. Hearing a lot of people in my surroundings basically say: "Let's first see how it pans out for the UK, which is looking disastrous atm." Dutch politics (apart from Wilders obv) mouthed a lot of 'this is a wake-up call for us, EU must reform'. But obv remains to be seen if that can actually be achieved.

xp to Stet

"I think its what many like Owen Jones might've thought. Corbz as cleanser of Blair-poison, get someone like Tsipras-like ('young', 'dynamic', that kind of bollocks) in the next 2-3 yrs. Unfortunately young dynamic Cameron-Osborne have so screwed it up he finds himself on the ballot for the gen election. Labour have NEVER EVER wanted to win with JC at the helm. Much more frightening than a Tory majority. They looked into their hearts, don't you see?"

sorry to sound cynical, but if corbyn-labour's platonic ideal of effective leadership is tsipras, they're already screwed.

Sentences to make you shrivel up and die

I know, right?

Thanks. At least our sacrifice is not in vain. Xp

I think you can't stop an A50 once begun. Idea is to prevent govts stopping just to get extra time. But EU could change the rules obv

Art 50 should have been triggered immediately - it was what people voted for. There was no suggestion of 'wait for the next gov' and I don't understand how Cameron thinks we can wait til October. He should have been prepared to trigger it or call a general election.

I think you can't stop an A50 once begun. Idea is to prevent govts stopping just to get extra time. But EU could change the rules obv

right you are, the wording of the report produced by the commission in the House of Lords was unclear on what exactly was meant by "the withdrawal agreement coming into force"

XP every hour that passes without it makes it less likely it'll ever trigger imo

UKIP has a point when it complains that it got 4 million votes in the last election but only 1 seat.

Could Labour campaign specifically on a platform of PR and attract a few of those voters? And then if it wins, actually implement PR straight away? And use that going forward as a way to put together ruling coalitions?

The scenario is bogged down negotiations with the EU losing patience and 'waterboarding' the UK on trade. Disordely, but the EU will be looking to what extent they could make the UK an example should anyone think of doing something similar - but perhaps not pointing guns to heads as they did to Greece.

Does anyone know what the extent of the damage will be to the Civil Service in good detail or can anyone point me to any writing on it? Lots around 'they don't have enough negotiators'. A lot of decoupling if Scotland also decides to leave in a couple of years.

He couldn't have refused to trigger it and stay in his position - fortunately as per that comment that's doing the rounds he knows it's a poisoned chalice and will not get less poisoned in the time it takes to appoint a new leader.

Ignorant question - did Cameron have the option to just go "Welp, seeya" like Miliband did and leave Osborne (as Deputy Leader) in charge until the new leader is chosen? Or is that sort of thing okay for the opposition but frowned on in the ruling party?

XP every hour that passes without it makes it less likely it'll ever trigger imo

I think you're right there. Part of my concern is that you either obey the results or you don't. I feel you have to, but if so article 50 needs to be triggered. If the results of the referendum never come through, at the next election we could have a massive far right vote or, potentially worse, participation could drop below 50% which would be even more disastrous.

(xp to dowd there)

(xxp oh you get the idea)

Could Labour campaign specifically on a platform of PR and attract a few of those voters? And then if it wins, actually implement PR straight away? And use that going forward as a way to put together ruling coalitions?

I don't think so. Remember that in the AV referendum, it was the parts of the country most receptive to ukip where they most emphatically rejected voting change as a nefarious scheme of pointy headed rootless cosmopolitans.

Coming over here and getting multiple votes.

I think I'm going to make a tshirt that says "I voted for av"

Does anyone know what the extent of the damage will be to the Civil Service in good detail

I don't think the plans are clear enough… but it will be figuring out how to unpick and replace EU legislation for a very long time. It means little capacity for doing anything positive - years at least, some people are saying a decade. I think some depts – Treasury, HMRC, Home Office (+ HMPO) , MoJ, Defra, BIS, maybe Cabinet Office – won't be doing much else at all apart from this and keeping their day-to-day just about ticking along. Staffing problems probably real: I don't think there are enough skilled specialists -everyone is saying trade negotiators, but just EU-law types as well - to do this, so a few years of very expensive contractor hell.

I saw a decent post about this, I'll try to dig it up (but I've read too much over the last few days)

just struck me that HMPO will not be able to deal with the demand spike when they announce a new non-European passport in 2018.

Drones will sort out everyone there, one way or another.

Just out of passing interest: is it the habit, in the Civil Service, to pronounce HMPO as "humpo"?

round after round of redundencies in the past few years will have helped - how much does it cost to recruit people? and how much will it have cost to pay off the people they'll be brought in to replace?

A lot depends on the stance that Angela Merkel takes as well - it sounds like she'll be less hawkish than Juncker, but is also unlikely to allow single market access without free movement. The Leave campaign was such a weird consensus of usually conflicting interests (free-market fundamentalists, garden variety Little England Tories, sovereignty wonks, socialists, fascists, anxious or angry working class voters, morons etc) that it's extremely likely to break up if the basic point of leaving the EU is achieved. Free movement is an issue for some of those people but clearly not all of them.

you either obey the results or you don't. I feel you have to
I don't think you do, honestly. Few of the other EU referendums have been obeyed in their countries either -- and although the ill-informed voters didn't know it was advisory, it *was* an advisory referendum.

I also think that a halfway competent politician could use the combination of the total retraction of the Leave campaign's platform and the immediate proof that Project Fear was telling the truth to say "the Leave side was lied to, and people should have another say in the cold light of day".

As for the upset millions that will be left behind, they are unfortunately with us whatever happens: No sane EU exit can be conducted that will deliver what they think they voted for, and especially not while keeping the country together. So we have to deal with them whatever choices we make about the EU.

xp
yeah the redundancies mean there isn't much spare capacity
and actual recruitment is v v slow (and so tightly bound that rates are unattractive) - i'm guessing but I think it'll be contractors on shocking day rates.

Halfway competent politicians a bit loose on the ground though - there was one who was trying to draw the sting by pointing out immigration is not the enemy, can't remember what happened to the old chap...

oh well - we can afford it xpost

also thin on the ground, which is actually a phrase.