It looks like Le Pen is only scoring marginally higher than the abstention count.
― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 7 May 2017 18:10 (seven years ago) link
Wait, the maths wouldn't add up? I have no idea how abstentions/vote blanc count in France, but if I understand correctly she did 35% of the 75% of the people who voted, right?
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 18:12 (seven years ago) link
It seems the FN won't exist anymore, that Le Pen will build a new party.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 18:18 (seven years ago) link
When Le Pen's dad ran in the second round against Chiraq, Chirac won by 80%. And Chirac is strongly to the right of Macron. So this 65/34 result is not very reassuring from a French perspective.
That being said: WHEW.
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 7 May 2017 18:23 (seven years ago) link
he started his party about a year ago. i think it is a pretty good result.
― Bein' Sean Bean (LocalGarda), Sunday, 7 May 2017 18:26 (seven years ago) link
now let's ship Macron and Trudeau. Madeau sounds better than Trucron.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 19:03 (seven years ago) link
this is beautiful:
you ok hun? @wollygogg pic.twitter.com/iolH2ZZA1P— ryan (@ryxnf) May 7, 2017
― soref, Sunday, 7 May 2017 19:34 (seven years ago) link
Good, expected result for Macron. I think 65/35 is a decent margin. Lots of work to be done so Le Pen won't win it in five years though.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 7 May 2017 19:41 (seven years ago) link
xp We can embed tweets now?
― Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Sunday, 7 May 2017 19:57 (seven years ago) link
etc― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
LOL I've been clear you vote for Macron and opose what -- at least from what I have seen -- will be his programme. Melenchon supporters clearly made their choice.
― xyzzzz__, Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:05 (seven years ago) link
finding any degree of nuance or caveat applied to jubilation over this unbearable to listen tosuch a relief
― schlump, Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:10 (seven years ago) link
25 point margin!
― Treeship, Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:12 (seven years ago) link
30 even! I'm bad at math.
Congratulations to the people of France for seeing the bigger picture.
― Treeship, Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:18 (seven years ago) link
Even though macron seems like a dork
I'm happy we beat the fascist so that I can get citizenship and vote against her in five years.
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:48 (seven years ago) link
pas-de-calais 1st departement so far to show a silm (<5%) majority for le pen, rest of the map is a pleasing brick red at the moment
― mark s, Sunday, 7 May 2017 20:51 (seven years ago) link
this is good https://medium.com/@thegrugq/a-list-minute-influence-op-by-data-ddos-3698906d8836
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 7 May 2017 22:23 (seven years ago) link
w/paris, rhone and bouche de rhones left to declare, only pas de calais and aisnes so far gone to mlp
― mark s, Sunday, 7 May 2017 22:41 (seven years ago) link
pdc should secede and join the uk, sort out that pesky immigrants running through the tunnel issue once and for all
― imago, Sunday, 7 May 2017 22:47 (seven years ago) link
Today was a good day.
― pomenitul, Sunday, 7 May 2017 23:18 (seven years ago) link
yay the lousy candidate beat the unspeakable one
vive le macaron
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 8 May 2017 04:07 (seven years ago) link
Deja vu, eh Morbz?
― Punnet of the Grapes (Tom D.), Monday, 8 May 2017 08:43 (seven years ago) link
Le Pen only carrying pas de calais, aisnes and les pays du kek
― The Adventures Of Whiteman (Bananaman Begins), Monday, 8 May 2017 08:49 (seven years ago) link
Aside the big neo-fascist flop after so much hype, I do draw some comfort that this is also a bad result for TM ... and Morrissey.
― calzino, Monday, 8 May 2017 08:57 (seven years ago) link
I can't believe most of Melechon's voters ended up voting against the fascist, it's almost as if the horseshoe theory is complete bullshit.
― Matt DC, Monday, 8 May 2017 09:11 (seven years ago) link
^
― The Adventures Of Whiteman (Bananaman Begins), Monday, 8 May 2017 09:12 (seven years ago) link
Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP. Endorsements didn't matter, its as if people can make their minds up.
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 8 May 2017 09:23 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large
interesting piece by olivier roy on likelihood of muslim melenchon voters abstaining in final vote (france doesn't collect voting data by ethnic or religious group, so it's hard to pin this down: roy is generally very good value though)
― mark s, Monday, 8 May 2017 09:51 (seven years ago) link
try again:
here is the piece by roy: http://www.boundary2.org/2017/05/olivier-roy-french-elections-catholics-vote-catholic-muslims-vote-secular/
and here is the diagram: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large
― mark s, Monday, 8 May 2017 09:52 (seven years ago) link
I'm the guy voting Macron in the first ballot and Le Pen in the second
― The Adventures Of Whiteman (Bananaman Begins), Monday, 8 May 2017 10:13 (seven years ago) link
Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP.
― Alex in Spree-Athen (alex in mainhattan), Monday, 8 May 2017 10:26 (seven years ago) link
don't have an FT subscription so i don't know if the diagram's from crunching the state's voting numbers or from a harris exit poll (which might be less reliable)
― mark s, Monday, 8 May 2017 10:30 (seven years ago) link
MLP soundly beaten into third place by Abstention/Spoiled Ballot (approx EM44-(nah)34-MLP22).
Max effect of those spoiled ballots = difference between 70/30 (they all should've been for Macron) and 59/41 (they all should've been for Le Pen).
2002 was really different, I think. Jospin didn't clear the field of other left/centre-left candidates, barely campaigned (if I recall), and ended up with such a fractured left-wing vote that he trailed in third. What followed were mass demonstrations against Le Pen Snr and practically every French socialist voting for the "crook" Chirac. There's distaste and resistance this time, but not the outright NO F-ING WAY of 2002.
― Michael Jones, Monday, 8 May 2017 10:53 (seven years ago) link
So that gif of Le Pen crying on E1 that everyone's gleefully sharing on Facebook, people seem to think it's related to her losing the election but there's no context provided so I reckogn it might just as easily be an old clip of her talking about the death of her parents* or something. Anyone know?
*Le Pen the very rare case where that needn't provoke empathy either, considering her dad.
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 8 May 2017 12:21 (seven years ago) link
Also he isn't dead. Maybe it was Thatcher dying, that provided the hilarious spectacle of a blubbing George Osborne.
― Punnet of the Grapes (Tom D.), Monday, 8 May 2017 12:26 (seven years ago) link
Haha yeah there's that too. But, y'know, just assuming it's some occasion where tears are more socially acceptable than losing a political race.
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 8 May 2017 12:34 (seven years ago) link
the newspaper reports said she spent the evening of her defeat dancing "le rock and roll" (which is a kind of crying IMO)
― mark s, Monday, 8 May 2017 12:50 (seven years ago) link
LOL
The relief last night when I saw Macron had beat the projections by a 10% swing was VRAIMENT PALPABLE
Never has the analysts' commentary seemed so totally beside the point either. So little patience for any of it
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 May 2017 12:56 (seven years ago) link
just found out Mac's wife is his high school teacher; vive le France
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 8 May 2017 15:41 (seven years ago) link
in high school terms, wouldn't that be tu en as de la chance!
― calzino, Monday, 8 May 2017 15:49 (seven years ago) link
― Matt DC, Monday, May 8, 2017 5:11 AM
@adamjohnsonNYCthe horseshoe theory: when you're literally too stupid to think in more than two dimensions.
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 8 May 2017 16:54 (seven years ago) link
Sure, but denying the existence of affinities between seemingly polar opposites is no less one-dimensional. The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.
― pomenitul, Monday, 8 May 2017 18:23 (seven years ago) link
this is pretty funnyhttps://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/how-the-american-far-right-tired-and-failed-to-hijack-the?utm_term=.dyLABApNO#.aiGaParMq
― Οὖτις, Monday, 8 May 2017 18:25 (seven years ago) link
Thinking far left and far right is far apart is funnily enough one dimension from even being two-dimensional. Hilarious! Right?
― Frederik B, Monday, 8 May 2017 18:29 (seven years ago) link
to be honest i don't see the huge difference between le pen and mélenchon. they are both nationalist and anti-european. they both want a strong state which redistributes lots of money from the rich to the poor. they both don't understand how economy works. there is one thing that sets them apart though. she would like to get rid of all muslim people right now, he doesn't.
― Alex in Spree-Athen (alex in mainhattan), Monday, 8 May 2017 19:59 (seven years ago) link
How is Mélenchon nationalist? I've not heard him say anything other than the usual platitudes all candidates (Macron included) have to trot out. Unless you're just using nationalist as a synonym for euroskeptic.
― Daniel_Rf, Monday, 8 May 2017 21:20 (seven years ago) link
Alex - please explain to us how the economy works.
The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.
LOL what a load of shit: yes a few do this, its less than Fillon but don't let that stop you. These Trots - now they are the monsters!
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 8 May 2017 22:55 (seven years ago) link
Nah, they're both monstrous depending on the situation, and not always for the same reasons.
― pomenitul, Tuesday, 9 May 2017 00:00 (seven years ago) link
alex it's not ilx's job to google the differences for you but i have to say that you must have only been barely paying attention to these two candidates to think that they have similar programs?
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 9 May 2017 04:22 (seven years ago) link
I've been paying attention and they are quite similar (two thirds of their programme anyway). Direct consequence of MLP's strategy to drop the christian traditionalist wing of her party and chase the working class ant-globalist vote.
― licorice oratorio (baaderonixx), Tuesday, 9 May 2017 07:26 (seven years ago) link