Canadian Politics 2017: I've Got a Pipeline Straight to the Heart of You

These bc election results are a real nail biter

libs: 42
ndp: 42
greens: 3

now 43/41/3 for the libs aaah :(

this is just crazy

Whoa.

Could there be any chance of an NDP-Green coalition, similar to the Lib-NDP Accord in Ontario in 85-87?

if these results hold, there'a s good chance of that...i'm not sure if I understand the process correctly, but in two weeks (May 22-24) electionsBC will count the absentee ballots, which last election were about 10% of the total. that means that any of the close seats could still flip, and a lib majority could easily happen while an ndp majority is still not completely impossible. the 1% popular vote margin could also still shift.

so 50,000 absentee ballots last time

ha the election that will last for another 2 weeks, shiiiiiiit

find the absentee ballots being counted much later thing really strange/dumb. everything else about voting in bc seems pretty decent - especially the extensive time period for early voting, and being able to vote at any polling place

this would be kind of cool

though it's a nightmarish process (libs/ndp coalition trauma)

we'll see if any proroguing happens

Weaver has said that the one issue anyone would have to agree to would the abolition of corporate and union donations.

Is it likely that either of the big parties would agree to this?

the ndp ran on it

using large union donations of course, haha. but the greens were taking such donations until about 6 months ago

the liberals would probably agree to that too. they are not exactly a party of firm principles.

it will hurt the libs much more than the ndp:https://www.desmog.ca/bc-political-donations

Donor Breakdown for Each Major Political Party in 2015

In 2015, the B.C. Liberal Party declared $9.9 million in political donations]. Of that total:

$5.2 million (52 per cent) came from corporations
$3.35 million (33 per cent ) from individuals
$728,795 (7 per cent) from unincorporated businesses and organizations, and
$24,075 (>1 per cent) from trade unions
In 2015, the B.C. NDP declared $3.05 million in political donations. Of that total:

$143,820 (4 per cent) came from corporations
$2.49 million (81 per cent) from individuals
$35,290 (1 per cent) from non-profit organizations, and
$376,336 (12 per cent) from trade unions
In 2015, the B.C. Green Party declared $394,310 in political donations. Of that total:

$383,720 (97 per cent) came from individuals
$10,549 came from corporations

(on top of that the ndp just has way more of a pool of volunteers with unions and activists for political campaigning that the liberals can't match, so if the corporate donations disappear they would be disadvantaged in an electoral campaign vs the ndp in the future)

but if the situation sits with the greens as kingmakers then what other choice would they have?

tbh if we have to have another clark gov if we have one that stops big donations and, one can hope, pushes for electoral reform, i'll be, well not happy, but not totally pissed off i guess?

Ah, interesting, thanks.

one controversy in the campaign was that premier clark actually has her premier salary topped up directly from donations (this was true and they stopped it iirc) and lives in a donor's large, expensive house in vancouver, which it is alleged by opponents, she does not pay rent for.

and donors get lots of gov contracts obv

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/b-c-has-a-best-government-money-can-buy-political-donations-system

not that the ndp does not act for its donors, e.g. john horgan has said that they should sell weed, when it's legalized, in bc liquor stores (because the workers are BCGEU)

There's no way that a Clark or any Liberal government would stop corporate influence. That is basically their raison d'etre. It's likely the Greens and NDP will form some kind of coalition, specifically to address this. And possibly an attempt at looking at proportional representation too. Which would probably require a referendum, which would probably fail due to corporate influence.

for some reason I'm p pessimistic and expect a liberal/green deal but without much good coming of it (weaver has voted with the libs on some bullshit frequently tbh)

it's a pretty huge controversy

housing seems to be on a lot of bc'ers mind

and a lot of the middle class is blaming chinese foreign money

bring into the mix that liberals actively sought out foreign donations and received ~$2 million from teck resources + affiliates, which from what i read, the chinese gov't owns 17% of, and there are lots of people fed up with that entire party

2016 article: http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-b-c-politicians-almost-alone-in-seeking-foreign-donations

The "Weaver is a secret Liberal" thing was largely about vote-splitting rather than ideology (though he has voted with them I guess - don't know much about exactly what.) Other than the corporate cash/influence issue and electoral reform, there's the Site C dam, which most people, including the Greens and NDP want cancelled and the Liberals (ie. their donors) insist go ahead. I can't see either party offering him a cabinet position - they are too keen on their own Environment guys. All the NDP people I know are pretty stoked today. The only bad thing is that recounts or absentee votes hand the liberals a majority. Then we're fucked again.

wonder if horgan will stay as leader. david eby is obv waiting in the wings

This is a pretty good primer on the situation now. The jist: Liberals have not won a minority, it's a hung parliament and up to the Legislature to determine who forms government. This seems obvious but it does demonstrate that many news reports are mis-reporting this as a small win for Liberals.

Yeah, no one can 'win a minority government' in an election. Canadians so often seem depressingly ignorant of our own political system.

So what does half the province like about Clark and the Libs if they are borderline crooks?

their enthusiasm for low taxes, low government spending, and love of pipelines and energy projects

Also, only about 23% of the population voted for them. ie. 40% of the 57% that voted.

the idea behind favouring pipelines/energy projects is that it'll bring in more jobs and economic growth it should be said

Christy speaking now. Amazing that she doesn't own a place in her own riding and didn't even vote there.

Okay, that was a really boring response from her. Maybe she realises it's over unless they can win another seat on the recounts.

176,000 uncounted absentee votes.

That riding in Comox with only 9 votes separating the NDP from Liberals had 1,800 absentee votes last election.

I envy BC's political scene, in Quebec we have the same kind of liberals: austerity and corruption (although it is mostly the previous Charest administration), but at least BC have the NPD as an alternative. The alternative in Quebec is xenophobic deficit hawks. Our choice is between xenophobia/sovereignty and corruption. Make it count!

That riding in Comox with only 9 votes separating the NDP from Liberals had 1,800 absentee votes last election.

― everything, Wednesday, May 10, 2017 1:17 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

giving me the fear!

extra fear

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/absentee-voting-explained-1.4108548

And given that Courtenay-Comox is home to CFB Comox, where many will be voting by absentee ballot and where Benninger was the former base commander, the results could change significantly between now and May 22.

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6ae5mr/we_are_two_ubc_political_scientists_ama_about_the/

Green leader Andrew Weaver @AJWVictoriaBC says deal breaker to working with parties is getting big money out of politics. #bcelxn17 pic.twitter.com/XJW3m4UHNQ

— Gordon Hoekstra (@Gordon_Hoekstra) May 10, 2017

And Horgan hammered that same point today.

And for me, that is probably the #1 thing I'd like to see addressed

I don't mind Horgan staying on, he ran the first semi-successful ndp election in 20 years. it gives us a strong bench for the future. could spencer herbert lead one day or is that crazy?

with 176,000 absentee ballots nobody who won by less than like 700 votes should feel safe. this election will never end.

Spencer's too nice to be party leader. Seen him speak lots of times and he's so well-liked that it's more like a "great to see you all, thanks for comin'" vibe. Just can't see him smiling while sticking a knife between his opponents ribs.His strength is being an available and active community member, and truly representing his constituents.

Wildrose and PCs plan to merge in AB: http://globalnews.ca/news/3461146/alberta-wildrose-and-pc-parties-to-make-announcement-thursday-morning/

Will the NDP be a one-term phenomenon? Honestly, not that I've paid extremely close attention to AB, but my sense is that they have been doing a pretty reasonable and not-at-all-extreme job with the hand they were dealt.

can't imagine they can compete with the united right. only caveat i suppose would be if a lot of wildrose voters are disillusioned with the party teaming up with the PCs.

Is there somewhere else they could go (other than not voting)?

I was wondering the opposite: if moderate PCs shift left instead of backing what will probably be a further-right party. If what they care most about is lower taxes, though, probably not.

A fringe party but ugh: https://www.facebook.com/Parti.Independantiste.du.Quebec/photos/a.580290878652647.144921.522503504431385/1891635784184810/?type=3&theater

If you can't see that, it's a sign for Parti indépendantiste candidate Alexandre Cormier-Denis, competing in the upcoming provincial byelection in Gouin with a picture of two women, one a white brunette in a blue toque with a fleur-de-lys, and one in a niqab. The text says, roughly "Choose your Quebec. Canadian multiculturalism: no thanks!"

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2017/05/18/une-pancarte-electorale-provoque-lindignation-de-citoyens

That's my hood, between the austerity party, the dude who turned the student strike into utter chaos, the right winger whose party promises me '1000$ in my pocket!!' and these islamophobic bullies, I'm really wondering if it is too much to ask for a Quebec NDP? (made a similar comment not too long ago, I realize).

NDP will be one-term, and would have been even if they had single-handedly caused a full recovery in global oil prices, slashed taxes to zero, and built a new pipeline for every conceivable market. They've done a decent job, but it was a protest vote against the corrupt, ineffectual PCs, and hatred of the Dips (fuelled by misogyny and the rise of the alt-right as well as an unshakeable perception of them as hardline Marxists and SJWs) runs deep & is daily, casually expressed in coffee-room chatter.

thank you courtenay comox!

anyone think the Greens will go Liberal?

Me