Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

Curious as to how Clinton reacts to last night. She doesn't need to be rattled, but she may be--and if she's rattled she may overreact and start attacking hard, and if that happens, that could backfire. She tended to run the 2008 campaign minute to minute, Annie Oakley and all that; assume she'll be more disciplined this time.

I don't think she should panic. She has the delegate lead and she earned more delegates last night. It might be troubling for her that rust belt states are trending Bernie (though last night was a near tie in MI since it's representational delegates) but big states like PA or FL are closed primaries which should help her. March 15th might be rough for her-- I assume she'll win missouri and north carolina, and if she can keep it close in (or win some of) OH, IL and FL she'll be in good position.

The Bernie case is a little harder to make since (I know I'm a broken record) at this points he needs more than momentum to overtake the earned delegate lead - the argument in his favor is that he is trending up so it's not impossible to believe that he captures such a groundswell that he starts blowing her out in some of his more favorable states.

Washington Post: 16 negative stories about Bernie Sanders in 16 hours

we did that one Monday, i think

I do think it's important that Trump has yet to get a majority of support in any of his states. He's been pretty consistent in that regard.

xp whoops, thread moves fast, sorry

Indeed, the Sanders campaign has focused on courting the Arab population in Dearborn, especially in the last week. He met with Arab-American leaders in the city, released an Arab-language radio ad in the Dearborn market, and reiterated at a Dearborn campaign rally that “we’re going to end bigotry in this country once and for all.” It’s hardly a new theme in Sanders’ campaign — he has spoken out against anti-Muslim rhetoric for months, likening such prejudice to the conditions his Jewish parents faced preceding the Holocaust.

“Arabs, both Muslim and Christian, have long been targets of discriminatory anti-terrorism policies, and Sanders’ campaign has responded to these concerns better than anyone else. He even promoted his campaign platform of equality and dignity in Arabic,” said (Hend) Amry(, a Libyan-American writer). “We are also seeing, perhaps, a response to the Sanders’ campaign’s attack of corporate America. Michigan’s blue-collar Arab Americans are suffering economic challenges too, not just white blue-collar Americans.”

http://www.ibtimes.com/bernie-sanders-wins-big-michigan-muslims-political-pundits-cant-quite-believe-it-2333030

re: "Trump has yet to get a majority of support in any of his states." - Hence the hunger for a two-person race. All not-Trump voters have to agree to focus on one specific person (in this case, gah, apparently Cruz) or give up and stay home.

As has been noticed elsewhere, it's likely to be win-win for Democrats. The hideous Trump, the odious Cruz, or some as-yet-unknown clusterfuckular third option. The GOP will have proved either be too weak to stop the Trump train (which makes them look weak and stupid) or nefarious enough to steal the nomination from him (which makes them look evil and antidemocratic).

I know prediction is a fool's errand these days, but I can't ignore the glimmer of hope that Republicans will simultaneously lose the presidency, Senate, and Supreme Court all at once. The schismatic chaos and paroxysms of gnashing teeth and flurry of long-ass think pieces would just be the cherry on top of a magnificent sundae of woe.

and then the Democratic wing of the Democratic party can turn its attention to Clinton-Schumer leadership?

They would (will) at least be aware that they're a wing.

I thought we were an aisle?

I know prediction is a fool's errand these days, but I can't ignore the glimmer of hope that Republicans will simultaneously lose the presidency, Senate, and Supreme Court all at once. The schismatic chaos and paroxysms of gnashing teeth and flurry of long-ass think pieces would just be the cherry on top of a magnificent sundae of woe.

― brotato chip (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, March 9, 2016 10:28 AM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Things would certainly improve, but I can't get over the feeling that the Dems would ultimately fumble that ball.

Let's face it: neither party really knows what it's doing or has much in the way of internal consistency. It's just that the GOP is so much worse, oh my god.

Jon Schwarz ‏@tinyrevolution
1996 GOP platform denounced use of terrorism to justify restriction of civil rights. Oh well http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25848

"We denounce terrorist attacks made on American citizens at home or abroad. We must take all legitimate steps to swiftly apprehend and severely punish persons committing terrorists acts. However, we must also denounce any attempts to deprive law-abiding citizens of their God-given, constitutionally-protected rights while fighting terrorism. To take away the liberty of the American people while fighting terrorism is repugnant to the history and character of our nation. We firmly oppose any legislation that would infringe upon the rights of American citizens to freedom of religion, speech, press, and assembly; the right to keep and bear arms; and the right to judicial due process."

How credible is the idea that Sanders getting very close to beating Clinton in the primary and it having zero effect on the way she acts as president being a recipe for causing a similar implosion in the Democratic Party? The relief of not having Trump as president being quickly be replaced by anger at Clinton doing nothing for the Sanders constituency of the Democratic Party that helped get her elected? I mean yeah blame it on obstruction from Congress but the success of Sanders in the primary might cause a bloc of the Democratic Party that was previously kind of diffuse to gain a sense of identity that is centered around betrayal of the working class by Clinton?

it would depend how motivated and angry the "Sanders wing" would be, instead of just booting their friends down their stairs when they ask "Would you rather have Trump?"

icymi: http://www.salon.com/2016/03/05/stop_laughing_democrats_as_the_gop_goes_down_in_flames_your_post_bernie_civil_war_is_almost_here/

I did miss that! Thanks.

i haven't read the salon piece in full, but this lines up with what i was going to say: "For the insurgents of the Sanders wing, the question now becomes how many of them are willing to turn to the more difficult and less exciting work of rebuilding democracy from the ground up"

unless Sanders/Warren supporters turn out en masse for the 2018 midterms and help to build progressive momentum around liberal candidates, they can't really throw a tizzy about HRC ignoring them while she's president

This is what frustrates me about the notion that Sanders supporters should take solace in what could amounts to a successful protest candidacy driving issues on the left. You'd have to be an idiot or at best an amnesiac to think HRC is actually going to adopt or even sublimate his core positions.

"could amounts," now who's the idiot

I wonder what the response would be if Sanders somehow manages to eke out more regular delegates than Clinton, but she wins the nomination with superdelegates. It could cause a lot of contentiousness and maybe hobble her candidacy in the general?

It would be kinda nice if the american people (on both sides of the aisle) finally wake up after being dicked over and lied to for 30 years but I dont expect much

If Sanders won more regular delegates but the super delegates flipped it for Clinton it would be catastrophic for everyone involved xp

It would be kinda nice if the american people (on both sides of the aisle) finally wake up after being dicked over and lied to for 30 years but I dont expect much

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries)

that's why many Republicans are voting for Trump.

Basically you get President Trump in that scenario, also falls into the "so not going to happen" category.

This is what frustrates me about the notion that Sanders supporters should take solace in what could amounts to a successful protest candidacy driving issues on the left. You'd have to be an idiot or at best an amnesiac to think HRC is actually going to adopt or even sublimate his core positions.

speaking seriously + specifically - she is not going to oppose free trade agreements and she isn't going to being an isolationist. that said - she has plenty of things she's campaigning on that she is likely to try and implement in office that will make a material difference in ppl's lives. so the question really becomes what constitutes "core positions."

going to become* an isolationist. i really need to get back into the habit of reviewing posts before i hit submit.

Richard M. Nixon ‏@dick_nixon

I'm still here.

Manu Raju @mkraju
"Every single person who has attacked me has gone down," Trump boasts

actually Richard Nixon died in 1994

just a rumor

Faked it.

bernie is not in any sense an "isolationist"

I agree

For the insurgents of the Sanders wing, the question now becomes how many of them are willing to turn to the more difficult and less exciting work of rebuilding democracy from the ground up"

just wondering what other candidates are being charged with the ludicrous task of "rebuilding democracy from the ground up"

What other candidates are making the case that it needs to be rebuilt from the ground up?

Like its called grassroots bc grass grows from the ground

what if you smoke it

From personal experience I can say you shouldn't try building anything after you smoke grass.

maybe don't take things so literally

You don't understand

you don't understand

Maybe not. Maybe you can rephrase your question? The answer to why Bernie supporters would be charged with rebuilding democracy & not, say, Hillary supporters seems obvious to me.

*slowly reaches toward the smoking grassroots*

What other candidates are making the case that it needs to be rebuilt from the ground up?

― Mordy, Wednesday, March 9, 2016 12:55 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tbh i have no idea what any of the other candidates stand for, if anything, beyond enabling the same old shitshow. so yay for that.

Smells good in here...

what is this "rebuilding democracy" that you keep mentioning? what does that actually mean to you?

it sounds like a pretty vague term that can mean whatever you want it to.

I assume it's a vague reference to the critique made by some Bernie supporters that our democracy is fatally flawed and needs broad systemic changes?

As opposed to maybe more mild reforms that Hillary supports (like reinstating civil rights voting protections).