Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

what is kasich's strategy if he wins OH?

brokered convention

even then though how is his claim any more legitimate than cruz really (leaving aside trump)

legitimacy kinda goes out the window with a brokered convention

Trump is unlikely to reach a majority of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination if he loses Ohio.

That's oddly comforting.

fwiw the current predictwise odds

trump 85% for florida, 70% for illinois, 99% for NC

trump and cruz are 50/50 in missouri

kasich is 70/30 with trump for ohio

illinois is a dem toss-up, sanders is up 67/33 in missouri, and clinton is 90%+ in NC and FL

what has been their record so far?

I really want someone else to get the nom in a brokered convention just because I posted a "Trump is not going to be the nominee and I'll bump this when I'm right" facebook status a while back.

We all should really learn to forgive the obviously contrite Trump for the awful things he's said over and over but that he clearly doesn't mean.

Obviously Trump is sort of sui generis, but ppl do this with their fave politicians all the fucking time. Most gay Dem Hilbots have already forgiven HRC for Reagan-AIDS, and would do the same if she wore an SS uniform to the next debate, as long as she apologized on Facebook.

if trump gets screwed out of the nomination at the convention there's no way you can consider that status msg valid xp

Cld run Clinton on the ballot in confederacy and Sanders in the north mayb? #outsidetheboxthinking

Most gay Dem Hilbots have already forgiven HRC for Reagan-AIDS

huh imagine that

if trump gets screwed out of the nomination at the convention there's no way you can consider that status msg valid xp

― Mordy, Tuesday, March 15, 2016 11:56 AM (32 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well it's a stretch, but my theory was based on GOP elites not allowing it to happen, so it sort of works.

kasich would be brokering his big ohio delegates (and perhaps those from other upcoming and demographically similar states) for the VP slot on a ted cruz ticket. honestly i've been super skeptical of brokerage talk but it is gradually coming to seem almost within the realm of things that could happen. really never imagined it'd be such a divided field for so long, with such weak anti-trump measures by the other candidates. still, though, it's more likely that even if nobody comes out of the nominating contests with a majority, some pre-convention brokering around the unpledged delegates would be enough to swing a first-ballot win against trump's 30% or whatever. maybe. that gets more likely if rubio takes the chance to bail, making it increasingly hard for trump to sneak by and grab winner-take-all states against a divided field. but who knows, rubio could basically say, okay, all my worst states are behind me, surely my big chance is coming up now!! and keep fucking it up for the others. what a wacky race.

Rubio's problem is that he hasn't even learned how to fuck himself.

mordy: i think he (predictwise) got everything except michigan democract and possibly iowa republican?

his site is terrible though and doesn't show historical data. i've met the guy and i'm happy to attribute this to lack of time/web skill rather than a desire to obscure his track record, but i can see why it would seem fishy.

rubio has to be finished after tonight, right? he looks finished

rubio could basically say, okay, all my worst states are behind me

florida?

huh imagine that

yes, bcz they are the worst faggots in the world.

he got zero delegates last tuesday. seems like he might get zero tonight. got to go at that point.

Rubio's done, no way does he soldier on after getting Trumpled in his backyard

And the media being on the thugs' side -- what the heck are you guys thinking, media? It doesn't make sense!

it's amazing how we can get such a "gem" of a palin quote 8 years past her expiration date

if trump gets screwed out of the nomination at the convention

it's only 'screwed' if you're under some sort of illusion that being a bit short of the necessary committed number of delegates means you are entitled to the nomination, in which case you are a naive taffeta-clad brony. (Dems would do the same to Sanders.)

Palin has not expired... because she's on television, dummy.

http://d329y26hx05pom.cloudfront.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/nedbeatty.jpg

Morbs otm (re being short of delegates)

he's technically correct in that the party has the leeway to do what they want but he's wrong in that keeping the person w/ the most votes from winning the nomination is clearly a subversion of the base's popular will and will fracture the party.

1976:

Going into the convention, Ford had won more primary delegates than Reagan, as well as a plurality in popular vote. However, Ford did not have enough to secure the nomination, and as the convention opened both candidates were seen as having a chance to win. Because of this, both Ford and Reagan arrived in Kansas City before the convention opened to woo the remaining uncommitted delegates in an effort to secure the nomination. Reagan benefited from his highly committed delegates, notably "Reagan's Raiders" of the Texas delegation. They and other conservative Western and Southern delegates particularly faulted the Ford Administration's foreign policy of détente towards the Soviet Union, criticizing his signing of the Helsinki Accords and indirectly blaming him for the April 1975 Fall of Saigon. The pro-Reagan Texas delegates worked hard to persuade delegates from other states to support Reagan. Ford, meanwhile, used all of the perks and patronage of the Presidency to win over wavering delegates, including trips aboard Air Force One and personal meetings with the President himself.

Trump could take wavering delegates on his plane and if they don't yield he'll toss them out.

it's not like we're talking about a constitution here. technically speaking couldn't the party change the entire nomination process to a closed behind doors vote for all elected republican senators + congressmen and guarantee who they want? if they do it'll piss their voters off, but so will keeping trump from the nomination. xp

party is fractured either way; it's mutually assured destruction and the only positive thing to get outta this experience

This, on Rubio, comes from a blogger I disagree with about 75% of the time (less than two months ago he was saying if Rubio was the nominee, he'd crush Clinton in the general - like, he literally typed the word "landslide"):

If he never gets back into politics, he'll find himself on a lot of corporate boards, and he'll show up on a lot of political talk shows. At worst, he'll be a Republican Harold Ford, a moderately ethnic, moderately telegenic corporatist who plays a savant on TV. He'll land on his feet. So shed no tears for him after he loses today.

with friends like these

if they do try to deny trump the nomination i wonder how far he'd try to leverage supporter violence (and/or himself as the only nominee that could prevent violence at the convention).

so many delightful scenarios

p sure Trump will go peacemaker if it ever looks like he could be prosecuted

my father puts the odds of trump in a federal prison by 2017 at roughly 1/1

"Harold Ford"

i was not aware til this morning that Rubio told his Ohio supporters to vote for Kasich

what ohio supporters

what ohio supporters

Not true, as every Cuban American Republican I know is voting in droves for the cubanito to stop Trump.

i was not aware til this morning that Rubio told his Ohio supporters to vote for Kasich

Kasich just kind of smiled and shrugged when asked why he wasn't returning the favor in Florida on Meet the Press.

it turns out that ppl who write for NRO do not constitute a sufficient base

@DennisThePerrin
Being a Hillary apologist these days is a form of performance art.

uhhh
https://twitter.com/BrandyLJensen/status/709710528424321024

Ned linked to Rod Dreher's most nuanced post ever.

@ManTheAlive
Being Dennis Perrin these days is a form of performance fart.

labored over that for 4 minutes huh

re: rubio's 'best states' - this is just going back to early-race conventional wisdom, which always sort of imagined rubio having to take some baths in the early states (though certainly not as badly as he has done) and then going on to win some of the winner-take-all stuff later in the race - the places where romney finally put santorum away. but this was back when cruz was not doing nearly so well, and it seemed like rubio could gain the mantle of the one clear 'establishment' guy. as bullshitty as that may have been, that was the logic, and if rubio still has people telling him that, then who the fuck knows. i agree that he looks like a man waiting for the moment when he can throw in the towel, much as jeb did by the end.

kasich throwing to rubio in florida would be pointless because rubio is/was doing so badly there that it wouldn't actually ensure him a win without cruz also being on board (fat chance). i still think kasich is playing for VP, but for all i know at this point he could believe that if he does well enough (and rubio gets crushed badly enough), he's actually in a position to win further states (by plurality) and present himself as the compromise brokered nominee that nobody really hates. throw in rubio's delegates, some wheeling and dealing... i dunno. that is a crazy scenario for a guy who's currently in fourth-place and super behind in delegates. he'd have to be quite the optimist but he could be thinking it: say he does win ohio's 99, and if the map is running out of really good cruz states, then with a little luck he wins pennsylvania, with a big push he wins california, while trump and cruz split the rest... it's the longest of long shots but hey he's still hanging around for some reason.

i don't know anyone who went to farflung beaches for spring break, i thought that was only something that happened in movies

yeah i think it mostly happens to people that have someone else (parents) footing all their bills. i worked part time to pay for school so my spring break was picking up extra shifts.

Katich knows that rubio is toast and that no one likes liar Cruz, so i don't think he's being totally unrealistic (though he's being extremely, extremely optimistic.)

imo Kasich has no realistic hope of the nomination, but he could become a powerful figure in a brokered convention, esp if he could somehow pull 25% of the delegates. That would probably mean winning CA and I have no idea how he's polling there.