theresa may: is her project subtly machiavellian or merely cunning, baldrick-style?

PRO: pseudo-big beasts toppled in the great cull, now political toast: cameron, johnson, gove
also toppled: ids, fox, crabb, ledsom lol
shelved: osborne (perversely perhaps I don’t think he has been as damaged as the above)
top of the heap hence not to be sniffed at: may
CON: good god what a rubbish heap of rubbish she has “bested” (largely by keeping her mouth shut, something you can’t do forever s a PM)

PRO: longest-serving home secretary since james chuter ede
CON: last home secretary to become PM was james callaghan

PRO: she has had an easy summer ftb internal labour squabbles, corbyn distracted etc
CON: it is the summer, when nothing much happens politically anyway (“silly season” etc)

PRO: she has cleverly hamstrung possible “biggish”-beast rivals/goads/gadflies (BJ, Fox, David Davies) by putting them in “charge” of fashioning brexit and designing the structure so that they are knocking heads with one another — plan, to reveal them gradually as idiots and dispense w/their services while directing matters herself by other means (besides it is the summer, when nothing much happens)
CON: three months later they are idiots with literally no grasp what brexit entails, the tories have actually wasted the summer headstart almost as comprehensively as labour) (arguably more: I think their currently lead is a deceptive consequence of the blank page offered and will change sharply as matters clarify, as the negotiation gets under way, as the mocking laughter rolls over us from europe)

PRO: she has played a clever game not tipping her hand; tory numbers have stayed up
CON: this same game is what shafted labour and there is literally a time table counting down — three months wasted is an eighth of it — there is no evidence that the army of well-informed and high-powered lawyers, civil servants, diplomats and negotiators is being gathered… the tories most of all are now prey to their militant anti-sir-humphrey rhetoric of 50 odd years (hinckley point debacle a good example)

PRO: labour has failed to unite into a pro-brexit camp to capture the regrexit mood
CON: tories will also lose voters to regrexit

PRO: labour as a long-term historical coalition is clearly in turmoil
CON: it’s not as obvious — because brexit and the leadership campaign masked it, and may is still very much in honeymoon period — but tory divisions are very much not healed, nor will they be, and the classic tory numbers-pumping weapons are mostly at the point where they will impact on potential tory voters now (viz pensioners…)

PRO: a big shake-up of the scene could work in her favour…
CON: … but what if it's a sea-change?

In summary: you can’t exactly fault her for achieving victory and hobbling internal opponents, but she has inherited a multi-layered onion of poisoned chalices (globally, nationally, party-wise) and merely seen off the cluster of clowns till recently clogging up right politics (which voters I think have tended to admire; but the resultant change of mood will benefit the politics of change in rival parties more than the politics of status quo); plus I have yet to see anything except negative capability. I can't yet get a read on her. HOW ABOUT YOU?

(^^^this is a bit chaotic btw, apologies for that)

political animal cunning placed her in the right spot at the right time for the leadership win but i wouldn't tag her as a theorist or deep thinker, she feels more like an avatar of the volkisch soul of the party with all the limitations that entails

A couple of "readings" of her (though from over 10 years ago):

I wouldn't mind Theresa May crushing me with her Russell & Bromley stilettos.
― Marcello Carlin, Thursday, November 6, 2003 2:59 PM

The latter, I guess. I fancy Teresa May.
― Alba (Alba), Wednesday, September 15, 2004 3:09 PM

lol

ps alba is now a professional sub editor

May has a clear grasp of Napoleon's "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" and has applied this idea both inside her own party and with Labour. Not sure if there's any more political mous than that.

nous, I mean.

Her image of providing stability is so important to her that she seems to be wary of actually doing or deciding anything. I wonder if No. 10 is in a state of paralysis - unable to get anything decided or approved.

Her government still has the feel of continuing on from a very quiet summer. And yet one of the next big set pieces, the Autumn Statement where Philip Hmamond is expected to "reset" fiscal policy, is only weeks away now.

These are all good analyses.

She's looked a bit rattled when I've seen her on TV lately. So yeah, a strong departmental/territorial politician who's been making moves that are sound in theory (eg the Brexit appointments), but which aren't adequate to the reality of a shit-mad era.

People in my industry tend to cross themselves, as though warding off a vampire, when her name is mentioned. She's far more ideological and less pragmatic than Cameron / Osborne - or rather less concerned with money and more with 'Conservative principles'. I may be biased by her position on student migration but it doesn't bode well for someone now responsible for looking at trading off economic success and tabloid right-wing sentiment in the Brexit context.

This is paywalled but has some background on City fears of a "hard Brexit":

https://www.ft.com/content/dd666fb8-833c-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15

Almost three quarters of UK chief executives polled by KPMG said they were considering moving operations or headquarters overseas following the Brexit vote, according to a survey released on Monday.

One Wall Street boss expressed concern that Mrs May did not fully grasp the consequences for the City of a “hard Brexit”, while other financiers claim civil servants are afraid to speak up to explain the broad risks of leaving the EU’s economic core.

One banker said that pro-Brexit ministers like Mr Fox and Mr Davis had yet to engage with the City. “If you try to discuss detail with them, you are dismissed as questioning the merits of Brexit,” said one.

Putting Fox / Davies / Johnson in charge and letting them fail, to swoop in and fix everything later, on might be Machiavellian but there seems to be a sense that things are moving a little faster now, as positions on both sides solidify, and idk how long she has before the course is irrevocably set.

ps alba is now a professional sub editor

I was talking about the porn star, obv.

"British diplomats are quietly urging European business leaders to ignore the statements of senior UK government ministers over Brexit"

Reckon Fox/Davies/Johnson may wreck things to such an extent it will too late to undo the damage.

Basically she is a Baldrick who thinks of herself as Machiavellian - which is fkn dangerous. One positive is that she is so Thatcher-like in mannerisms or 'look' that a catastrophic failure might wreck the image of the former in terms of perception of competence/'saving out country'

The negative side is that this might meaning wrecking a lot of the country...hopefully something better can be built. er, lol at that.

The ideological thing is v visible, like it seems weird to kick up a grammar schools noise right now - no pledge, no election nearby, & ahem quite a lot of other stuff going. Yes, signal to the base & maybe a distraction from Brexit, but it does seem like she had no idea that actual people would be furious and argue it. Maybe evidence for more Baldrick than Machiavel.

Can see her crashing and burning before the next election and Johnson and Osborne going toe-to-toe thereafter.

Am I really the only person who read the first line of this thread as PRO: pseudo-big breasts?

johnson is peak yesterday's man, it won't be him

xp: yes, yes you are

Sadly, no xp

away with you both

pro: she is caught on an unusually ferocious fork at every level and taking the boldest possible gamble in all directions to power through
con: she literally hasn't a clue what she's doing and is ignoring everyone who's telling her otherwise

haha "otherwise" s/b "so" in that second sentence i think

http://uk.businessinsider.com/conservative-conference-brexit-article-50-birmingham-2016-9

^^^

The "bold gamble" is "HARD BREXIT CAN BE DONE. NOTHING CAN GO WRONG, CRISITUNITY BECKONS, BRITONS UNITED CAN CONFOUND THEIR POLITICS/FRUSTRATE THEIR KNAVISH TRICKS" (where "they" is everyone else apparently including the irish and the scots)

the actual future is comedy marmalade, bottled air and the UK military freed to commit battlefield atrocities w/o threat of legal comeback (in mercenary terms there might well be a market for the last, if we hire ourselves out to the sauds or some of blair's other chums, like that guy who boiled political opponents alive) (i mean, he's dead, but another will be along in a moment)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmAMy0HWkAIOPuu.jpg

she's forgetting that "winging it" only stands a chance of working if you're a virtuoso at the height of your powers, which, let's be real here

by the way, amazing image choice Business Insider picture editor, well done

I read pseudo-big breasts.

I thought this from Yvette Cooper was interesting (yes, I know, but this was a good piece):

I respect her style – it is steady and serious. She is authoritative in parliament – superficial attacks on her bounce off. When the Tory establishment call her “a bloody difficult woman” she rightly wears it as a badge of pride. But the flip side is that she is not fleet of foot when crises build, she digs in her heels (remember the Passport Agency crisis in 2014 when the backlog caused hundreds to miss their holidays, and the Border Force crisis in 2011 when border checks were axed).

And she hides when things go wrong. No interviews, no quotes, nothing to reassure people or to remind people she even exists. It’s helped her survive as home secretary – but if you are prime minister, eventually the buck has to stop.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/07/theresa-may-britain-tory-candidate

It's that latter part that was apparent over the last few weeks, and that latter part which can be interpreted as laying-in-the-cut, give-em-enough rope cunning, but isn't really anything when, likely the silence over Hinkley Point, or the 'charge!' strategy over triggering Article 50, you end up in the same place you were going to with a generally weaker look and position.

The exception I'd make is appointing three brexit ministers - it seems clear that Fox and Johnson are not competent or capable of delivering anything (and FO is basically sales these days, right?). David Davies is an unknown quantity to me, but some accounts suggest he's probably the smartest and the most likely to deliver cogent policy. She can afford to let two people play in their sandpits to appease that section of her party.

The grammar school's thing is weird. There's no need to chuck anything to the Tory loon section just yet, so it looks like ideology. It's terrible politics though - excluded children = excluded voters across the political spectrum. I wonder whether her policy Spad Nick Timothy is influencing things here:

According to Timothy’s writings and occasional interviews, he decided to become a Conservative partly because of the party’s position on academic selection. Timothy’s exclusive state school, King Edward VI Aston School for Boys in Birmingham, had a “transformational” effect on his life. But he worried that if Labour got into power it would close such schools, cutting off opportunities for kids like him to get ahead, he has said.

http://www.politico.eu/article/nick-timothy-theresa-may-uk-conservative-conference/

Tony Parsons also took this line: it's an outrage that bright kids like him should not be allowed to escape their background and kick the ladder down behind them as they count their dirty cash

It had great force in the 80s, and naturally appeals to people who benefited from it personally (Gove is possibly another).

But a lot of the underlying dynamic resentment currently stems from communities that feel they've been left behind (and are ignored and despised): the bright kids went off to college and to that London and now sneer at those they were once at school with, well fuck them, let's vote to troll them. I've seen a handful of people tackle the darkside of "aspiration", the bad energies and community-corrosive issues of internal migration -- Alex Harrowell on his blog, Dan Davies on twitter -- and I think it's one of the things that the left is going to have to wake up to, that the interests of various regions have been allowed to getwildly out of kilter (it's one of the things that the term "heartland" obscures: labour now has several "heartlands" whose natural interests clearly clash…)

A lot of working class grammar school boys are tremendously fond of their alma maters which I read as half Stockholm Syndrome, half Judasism and half willful, privileged blindness to social reality.

Step forward, Old Grammarian Andrew Neil.

to add a fourth (slightly more sympathetic) half to NV's stated three (all of which often also apply): artistic or bookish ppl escaping from homes or neighborhoods destructive or dismissive of the possibility of same may well have v complex/conflicted feelings abt both (and a degree of not-unjustified gratitude to the means of their escape)

i sometimes wonder what my debt to the county of my birth wd be in a just economic/political settlement :|

depends which county

https://britishcountyflags.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/insert-image-1-salop-flag1.jpg

you probably owe very little

Step forward, Old Grammarian Andrew Neil.

Though the Scottish Tories do not support the reintroduction of Grammar schools. Funny old world, innit?

cos anyone who experienced that particular type of grammar school “transformational” effect in scotland then left?

No demand for them, I assume.

yeah mark I am more mindful of the benefits that grammar schools conferred on otherwise isolated w.c. kids than my unnecessarily grumpy post let on

cos anyone who experienced that particular type of grammar school “transformational” effect in scotland then left?

― conrad, Tuesday, October 4, 2016 6:41 AM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think the thing is that time for most scottish people - well certainly in glasgow and the west - even if you went to grammar school and it ended up benefiting you and you did well in life you, generally, continue to believe that you are the salt of the earth/are a bit ambivalent about it all

not sure what you mean but surely you don't think e.g. an andrew neil or a michael gove might consider themselves virtuous in any way rather than revelling as they surely must in their own cynicism and poisonousness

andrew neil is definitely a counter example to my thesis

I'm sure andrew neil thinks that he deservedly ascended from his humble origins due to meritocracy

when paul foot described him as a member of the establishment, andrew neil angrily threatened to cancel his subscription to the LRB

(it was pointed out with some glee that he actually received a free issue)

have decided that theresa may is machiavelli only in the sense of standing in the head of a giant government baldrick operating the levers.

also

this is good on the nature of the HO and why Theresa May felt at home there, what this implies for her government and the "protective state".

A powerful image emerged of a department that had become embattled over a long period of time. In a ‘neoliberal era’, in which national borders were viewed as an unwelcome check on the freedoms of capital
..
However Theresa May’s long tenure (6 years) and apparent comfort at the Home Office (often a political graveyard) suggests that these symptoms may have become more pronounced in her case or meshed better with her pre-existing worldview.

to add a fourth (slightly more sympathetic) half to NV's stated three (all of which often also apply): artistic or bookish ppl escaping from homes or neighborhoods destructive or dismissive of the possibility of same may well have v complex/conflicted feelings abt both (and a degree of not-unjustified gratitude to the means of their escape)

Can highly recommend 'Respectable' by Lyndsey Hanley on precisely this subject - and why the destructive/dismissive reaction of those trapped within the system is perfectly understandable.

(and the title is a nod to Mel and Kim, if that helps tip your hand)

(it was pointed out with some glee that he actually received a free issue)

... you can take the boy out of Paisley.

... but only via the mechanism of selective education iirc.

^very good

if only there were no possibility of an andrew neil once removed having any subsequent effect upon a paisley

xps
that's an interesting article - it tallies with what I've seen of HO. From the off I've wondered what years as Home Secretary has made of May - I mean on day one I assume the permanent types sit you down and say 'Britain is under threat all the time' and show you folder after folder of terrifying stuff that's going on. Six years of that must really skew your vision of the world. (And then the protect/paranoid vibe that's inherent in HO's role then gets amplified by being in the gunsights of the Daily Mail all the time). But I hadn't thought how it might fit with her personal predispositions or wider politics - class issues, other policies, departmental fights.

if it's us we're all tankies!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuYvvzFWwAA4iaf.jpg

the *they* who are shitting it for corbz + mcD in No.10 are so legion that sometimes I think we're all going to die lol.

The distance from not-forever to quite-soon is, um, nebulous

I've just literally heard a poem recited called "mrs may stands at the dispatch box and sees all". It was just some words, but what's fucking right with these people?

Conhome commenters so they’re atypical but not that atypical - there’s still a group that think that Corbyn will damage the UK beyond recognition (and within that a “last election ever” subgroup, but most recognise that incompetence is the greater danger than an iron fist), but they also consider May’s plan will chain us to the yoke of the EU until the ending of the Fourth Age.

There's probably a group that believes that any Corbyn government will be a short-lived disaster that will enable the Conservatives to sweep back into power with a real Moggite in charge. (This is wishful thinking for a whole range of reasons, chief among them the complete toxification of the party for pretty much anyone under 45). Still, I doubt that this group includes any actual Tory MPs and there isn't a single one who would vote with Labour in a No Confidence vote against their own party.

I think there will be a second referendum because London and the City of London are unhappy and London is, ultimately, the only thing that the entire conservative party cares about.

This is pretty much dead in the water after Boris Johnson's "fuck business" comment. They stopped caring about what the City wants ages ago, and one of the more astonishing aspects of Brexit is the extent to which the Tories have been prepared to rupture the link between the party, the City and the CBI. They are trashing their brand in the process and they don't even seem to care.

At risk of stating the obvious the City of London is not London, and while London may be the clearest example of Thatcherite hypercapitalism going it's also a very solidly Labour city and that isn't going to change any time soon. And of course it's stuffed to the gills with metropolitan elite Remoaner saboteurs. The whole Farage myth is based around London vs the rest of the country, with London on the wrong side of history.

is that the basis of the farage myth? I thought he was a former city boy who wanted to be mayor of london

He also went to an expensive school where his teachers identified him as a fascist, so naturally this all gets glossed over when the BBC is presenting him as the voice of the man in the street.

yes he went to dulwich college and was a metals trader -- briefly at drexel burnham lambert lol, tho never i think remotely a high-flier

(city high-fliers i guess don't need to go into politics)

The artist Jeremy Deller was a contemporary of his at DC, which is weird because he seems so young in comparison (and yes, JD says his classmate was a massive fash knob).

Well yes this is all the reality rather than the myth.

Bump. Is there any chance she'll throw in the towel after tonight's vote?

who fuckin knows, honestly

at least now we can be pretty certain that her project was indeed merely cunning, baldrick-style - a cold comfort before we all starve to death, admittedly, but a comfort nonetheless

I would imagine not, but if it's truly massive then maybe? But she would only see another leadership election as divisive...

A linked question would be whether she'd lead the Tories into a general election.

She's said she won't, hasn't she?

Was that video of the audience woman on question time linked in the past week? Don’t think I’ve seen it.

xp(lead them into the next election, that is)

OMG I LOVE HER

YES TO ALL OF THIS YES YES YES SHE WINS #BBCQT pic.twitter.com/7UgVqBdXb0

— Alex Andreou (@sturdyAlex) January 10, 2019

“People try to talk about dates; what I’m clear about is the next general election is in 2022 and I think it’s right another party leader takes us into that general election.”

maybe there's a baseline where enough of her "allies" tell her they're giving up to force her hand, but I wouldn't bet on it because only a real numbskull would want to be the leader of the Tory party right now

if there’s an election this year - in order to facilitate an A50 extension - she would probably have to lead them into it

and it would be delicious

xp How on earth would the Tories find one of those among their number?

how to win BBCQT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4c5q8UjUz4

No I mean a *real* numbskull, an epochal avatar of numbskullery

he's running
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Official_portrait_of_Mr_Jeremy_Hunt_crop_2.jpg/220px-Official_portrait_of_Mr_Jeremy_Hunt_crop_2.jpg

that looks like one of those colourised 19th century photos.

xxp I concur but the takedown is great and it’s so nice to see an audience member that’s not a red-faced fash.

Ah good point, most of the traditional Bufton Tufton numbskulls are just perennial backbench fodder but Hunt, oh yeah, he's a contender

https://youtu.be/EmYwBHooA_M Something positive about him being PM

Cometh the hour cometh the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Official_portrait_of_Chris_Grayling_crop_2.jpg

THAT WAS A PICTURE OF CHRIS GRAYLING

the anonymous absence seems appropriate

running for leader of the Tory party now would be like breaking into the cockpit of Flight 93 to offer the hijackers a hand

he's running
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Official_portrait_of_Mr_Jeremy_Hunt_crop_2.jpg/220px-Official_portrait_of_Mr_Jeremy_Hunt_crop_2.jpg

prime minister jeremy cunt is kinda the logical endpoint of the last five years of uk politics tbh

this great nation deserves nothing less

Very old popbitch anecdote about him:

"I was working in London during the 9/11 bombings.
My colleagues, concerned about the breaking news,
had the radio on in the background. Our boss
promptly came in and told us to turn the radio
off and get back to work. In fact, I do not
think I have ever met a man less interested
in art or other cultures.

Lo and behold, I turned on the TV recently and
there he was! Shadow Secretary of State for
Culture, Media and Sport, Jeremy Hunt."

china ... japan .... it's all same country innit?

i know the #banterheuristic is now deprecated but PM JH is none more #banterheuristic, and that includes grayling, no i will not show my working

What about the SoS who didn’t understand how NI works? Or Matt “call app Britain” Hancock?

https://thequietus.com/articles/08944-jeremy-hunt-levenson-enquiry-hotcourses

Weird to see an anonymous Popbitch article and know immediately where it came from.

Ah right, different person, same story.

which backs up the veracity of his rhyming slang credentials

I meant to say .. alleged - but there isn't much doubt that he's an absolute hunt.

Ignorance and hatred of culture is a standard qualifying requirement for Culture Sec I thought?

I heard David Mellor loved the footy.

https://nvm.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Sorted-PORTRAIT-RGB.jpg

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi2-prod.mirror.co.uk%2Fincoming%2Farticle9129154.ece%2FALTERNATES%2Fs1200%2FBaldrick-May-main.jpg&f=1

And in the end it was compulsively proven that the answer was... NEITHER.