French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

I could be persuaded if Melenchon is a real dummy but "the far left and the far right are the same, actually" galaxy brain shit has a high burden of proof

If we go by the runoff, 20.7 million people, i.e. 43.6% of registered voters. That's about as much as Sarkozy in 2007 and Mitterrand in 1981; slightly more than Hollande in 2012 (39%). The only time a president got an absolute majority in terms of registered voters was in 2002, when Jacques Chirac beat Jean-Marie Le Pen. So there's nothing unusual about Macron's victory in this regard.

I get rioting when you voted for one thing and got another. I get vandalism when the powers-that-be are actively conspiring to destroy democracy. But when the government is consistently applying the program for which it got elected in the first place, I'm at a loss. I guess no one was paying attention and just voted based on impressions? Yeah, Macron is totally to blame for that.

We'd still be paying the poll tax in the UK with that attitude.

I could be persuaded if Melenchon is a real dummy but "the far left and the far right are the same, actually" galaxy brain shit has a high burden of proof

I can't speak for Euler, but I think Mélenchon is a dangerous demagogue (although not quite as much as Le Pen) who is greatly harming the French left at the moment. La France insoumise would be much better off without him. None of which implies that the far left and the far right are the same – not in my book, at least.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

At any rate, physically mass-mobilizing is a fine method of influencing government, though I'd personally like to have seen a little more directed leadership to help curb the fashy elements. And of course any situation that ends with "socialism in one country" (if that is indeed where they wind up in a year or two) is doomed to failure. xxp

Macron's approval rating was fairly high last year (above 50%), so it's not as simple as that.

any situation that ends with "socialism in one country" (if that is indeed where they wind up in a year or two) is doomed to failure

This is sadly otm, though.

Yeah I don’t think that the far left and the far right are identical, but just that Mélenchon and Le Pen are similar in their conneries.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

It's certainly what every French person I know did. First round votes are a different topic of course.

All of you OTM. Stunned by the level of general support to such a confused and often ugly movement. But I guess that's its strength, this viscosity where divergent and contradictory opinions will just coalesce behind a general "we're fed up with it" feeling.

Sigh.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

Only 16% of the people who voted for him did so because of his ideas. 43% voted against Le Pen. Among major candidates he his the one with the lowest percentage of people who cast their vote because they agree with the candidate's program. First round was no different. Every media kept telling everyone he was the most likely to beat Le Pen. You even had politicians on the left publicly stating they would vote for Macron in the first round in order to avoid a Le Pen / Fillon duel.

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

otm

Yep, completely.

it's sounding like Saturday is going to be nuts. things are building up: the Sorbonne is closed today because of attempt to block it, the building where I was supposed to teach last night was similarly closed yesterday, my kids' school was blocked today, tomorrow's a day of general mobilization which will mess up transport at the least, and then saturday already museums are announcing closures because of anticipated chaos.

basically activists are smelling blood & it's almost the end of the year so students want a break from courses

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

FWIW I'm literally just looking for more information/context! Going by mainstream American media, the guy might as well not exist.

looks like an absolute shitshow over there

It’s always interesting how different protests get treated differently. Like the way ‘fuel tax protests’ in the UK a while back - the media is immediately behind such actions, whereas the default stance to left wing protests is opposition.

I saw my first gilet jaune a little bit ago. Near the Jardin de Luxembourg

All Parisian lycées are closed tomorrow so my kids are happy, won’t have to navigate the civil war. The city feels very tense today. Cops are gonna be reluctant to intervene tomorrow so it’ll be up to the army. We’ll not be leaving the house.

just checked into our hotel in saint germain des pres. not planning on crossing the river tomorrow but don’t really want to be hotel-bound. do you think it’s likely violence will spread far beyond the 8th?

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm

― L'assie (Euler), Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yep, completely.

― pomenitul, Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Take out Nothern Ireland and there wouldn't be as much of a problem. The deal would probably have gone through, even with tight numbers in parliament.

The EU are facing serious problems integrating the Euro - and having to impose austerity in Southern Europe. It needs serious reform and thought. Saying Melenchon is part of a 'fashion' is laughable and you are all fooling yourselves.

It’s not clear where the violence will be tomorrow. Something may go down at Denfert-Rochereau, which isn’t that far from Saint-Germain-des-Près. My daughter’s lycée is in SGDP, I’m glad she won’t be there tomorrow. Up here in L@ Ch@p3ll3 I expect things will be like Ghostbusters after the EPA lets all the ghosts out : while the cops are with the rich scum tomorrow the gangsters up here will have their way.

delightful. thx for the intel.

So a noted yellow vest who also happens to be a holocaust denier 'accidentally' ended up on the cover of Paris Match:

https://www.lesinrocks.com/2018/12/06/actualite/un-militant-dextreme-droite-se-retrouve-en-une-de-paris-match-pour-illustrer-les-gilets-jaunes-111149819/

The EU are facing serious problems integrating the Euro - and having to impose austerity in Southern Europe. It needs serious reform and thought. Saying Melenchon is part of a 'fashion' is laughable and you are all fooling yourselves.

I fail to see how this precludes a critique of Mélenchon himself. Like I said, La France insoumise has much to gain by getting rid of his top-down leadership style.

ex-trots can never stop trotting

The EU are facing serious problems integrating the Euro - and having to impose austerity in Southern Europe. It needs serious reform and thought. Saying Melenchon is part of a 'fashion' is laughable and you are all fooling yourselves.

― xyzzzz__, Friday, December 7, 2018 8:29 AM (ten hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

All indications is that serious reform and thought of the European Union is not Mélenchon's priority.

It's not hard at all to imagine a France + Southern Europe coalition that shoved down a real equalizations payments system on the Germans today, that would have been a real constructive debate. I can see how citizens of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and France today would be into it. But they didn't unite over it and instead just decided to shit on neo-liberals and the euro and now the situation keeps getting worse. Equalizations works elsewhere and should have been the future of a truly united Europe. Now both the anti-establishment left and right just prefers economic nationalism because its easy dumb votes for shitheads who don't have the imagination to understand that yes our current situation as other options than either protectionism or neoliberalism. For the likes of Mélenchon, its like we never tried protectionism, like we don't have the data on how it created massive problems, like it never lead to absolute chaos in the past.

What infuriates me is that over the past week Macron passed a really though law, one that will reverberate around Europe, to regulate the trucking industry and labor conditions but nobody gives a shit because he wears a suit or whatever he has the tag he has; that's the kind of law that would just infuriate a classic anti-regulation neo-liberals, it stands for exactly everything the populist/protectionist are for while keeping it true to pan-European ideals. I'm not defending his policies as a whole, I think a lot of policies are shit, I did not vote for him in the first round, but I would love to see the grander left celebrate shit that matters sometimes, even if it's the dramatic voice*** centrist mortal enemy who did it. Also fuck that tax hike on gas. The obvious first step would have been to tax the shit out of Total to begin with, and I'm glad the tax has been reversed but boy its going to be real nasty when the same tactics are used for nasty islamophobia/xenophobia and at this point I'm fairly certain it will, the venn diagram has just too much overlap.

What infuriates me is that over the past week Macron passed a really though law, one that will reverberate around Europe, to regulate the trucking industry and labor conditions but nobody gives a shit because he wears a suit or whatever he has the tag he has;

That seems a bit reductive, don't you think? There's much more to it that him wearing a suit. It goes back all the way to his actios under the Hollande government to everything and said to did since he was elected. The trucking thing is a good thing but it doesn't cancel the rest at all. Like you said his policies are shit. Almost everyone in this country who isn't super-wealthy is fed up with decades of shit policies, even though not everyone is fed up with the same policies for the same reasons.

I don't support the Gilets Jaunes nor their methods and I got into seriously heated arguments with colleagues over it but this governement totally deserves a loud reminder that Macron isn't our king and people won't just shut up for 5 years and accept anything. If anything maybe he'll show less contempt for people now.

*everything he did and said*, sorry it's early

"Macron's arrogance unites us"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/07/macrons-arrogance-unites-us-on-the-barricades-with-frances-gilets-jaunes

His supposed arrogance is also a theatrical posture he developed to avoid coming off as weak. Damned if you do, damned if you don't: either they take to the streets to demand that the new Roi-Soleil be guillotined or they diss your supposed softness until you hit rock bottom and are forced out of politics for good (Hollande).

I'd also like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that France's Gini index, which measures inequality, is still low compared to that of other Western European countries, that there are exceedingly poor nations with a shit-tier GDP that are indeed less unequal in their wealth distribution but whose standard of living would be considered appalling by the gilets jaunes, that the French get five weeks of paid vacation, a 35-hour work week, free world-class health care and benefits that would (and should) make the socialist parties of comparable countries quite jealous.

Macron supports all that, does he?

The lingering problem is unemployment. How would you solve it?

How's he solving it, he's the President of France, I'm not.

There was nothing supposed about Hollande's softness. He kept trying to please the right, who would never like him no matter what because socialism is evil, while forgetting he's got elected on the basis of left-leaning promises. The ecotaxe was actually a good thing, for once, but he abandoned it as soon as the industry protested. On gay marriage, which is a fucking non-issue for everyone except a bunch of homophobic fucktards, he almost pussied out (as a side not it's interesting to note that Macron has shown much more empathy to the "humiliated" (his words) opponents to gay marriage than he has ever shown towards to any other kind of protesters). As one comedian said once of Hollande, "we expected absolutely nothing from him and he still managed to disappoint".

From a UK perspective all you ever hear about France is how it needs to reform itself, to be more in line with UK and US, that is something I've been hearing about from right wing and, yes, centrist, commentators in the UK for as long as I can remember - which is a long time. It comes in two forms - sniggering schadenfreude from the right and patronising mock concern from the centre, as always driven by British resentment of the French.

35 hr week is pretty theoretical for a lot of professions

"free" healthcare, well, apart from the deductibles and/or the mutuelle that you've bought to cover them

but in general i agree

well given that the deductibles are mostly reimbursed by CPAM even if you don't have a mutuelle, it's not as bad as that sounds.

the biggest healthcare gripe I hear is that eyeglasses are not really covered. as a former american I lol every time I hear someone go about vision coverage here.

Tom, he lengthened bereavement leaves and implemented a 'right to disconnection'. He is unlikely to get rid of the 35 hour work week and will extend health coverage to dental care, which is currently not free. He also plans on giving benefits to the self-employed as part of his labour reforms. Truly neoliberalism incarnate.

Oh and eyeglasses will also be covered by 2021 at the latest.

Dinsdale, everyone on the left conveniently leaves out the 75% wealth tax, which Hollande was subsequently forced to backpedal on because it turned out to be a complete and utter failure. So yes, he did aim for maximum 'leftism' given his wiggle room. A tragic cautionary tale if ever there was one.

That said, I don't think Macron's ISF reform is the way forward.

I agree with everything you're saying, pomenitul

I do think that the gilets jaunes are a good counterweight to French neoliberalism, in LREM and LR and whoever else. There was no such voice in the presidential election : instead it was fought about immigration because of the fascists. I'm heartened by the gilets jaunes' lack of interest in immigration. If racism becomes a prominent part of their surges then I'll be cheering the army on. As it is, this is a democratic counterweight of which we were robbed by Le Pen (and by Mélenchon's lack of interest in ordinary French life but rather in the mostly-irrelevant "international politics of the left")

This is mere anecdotal evidence, of course, but my (French) wife has been keeping me informed about the bits of far-right 'alternative facts' her supposedly left-leaning relatives – all gilets jaunes sympathizers or members – are spreading on Facebook and there are some significant racist elements among them.

Les Décodeurs do a great job of summing up this particular xenophobic conspiracy theory, which has gained a fair amount of traction worldwide these past few weeks:

https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2018/12/06/vendre-la-france-a-l-onu-de-donald-trump-aux-gilets-jaunes-l-itineraire-mondial-d-une-intox_5393268_4355770.html

Yes, I've seen articles about that in several European countries this week. No doubt the Russians are trying to seize upon the moment.

For those who haven't encountered it yet, it's about how Macron's decision to sign the UN Global Compact for Migration on Monday will accelerate the so-called 'grand remplacement' or 'great replacement', a now-mainstream racist theory developed by the loathsome writer and 'intellectual' Renaud Camus. In essence, it states that white Christian Europeans are being deliberately, systematically replaced by exogenous, coloured forces bent on the destruction of Western civilization.

There surely are lots of rotten apples within the Gilets Jaunes and especially with those are somehow appear as "leaders" (self-appointed or not). Which is part of why I can't fully support them.

Dinsdale, everyone on the left conveniently leaves out the 75% wealth tax, which Hollande was subsequently forced to backpedal on because it turned out to be a complete and utter failure. So yes, he did aim for maximum 'leftism' given his wiggle room. A tragic cautionary tale if ever there was one.

Like you said, he backpedaled. That's pretty much his M.O.

The lingering problem is unemployment. How would you solve it?

According to Macron finding a job is actually easy, you just have to cross the street. So I don't know what he's waiting for, build more streets Manu! And actually, at this very moment you have thousands of people walking in the streets of France, they haven't figured out the whole crossing thing but as soon as they do we can kiss unemployment goodbye.