predict the outcome of the french presidential election run-off

Don't want to jinx the outcome, so not voting in this poll.

has there been much commentary about the fact that the decision to slant the Tricolour on Fillon's logo makes it look like the Union Jack?

toughy

not well read on french politics but

a fillon win is possible if le pen doubles down on her extremism closer to election day

if she behaves, who knows...possibly macron

this is a beautiful little graph

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

leaning towards fillon and skeptical melenchon can get bigger numbers

i've been trying to search for voter turnout/registration by city/region but no dice, so still lots of questions left unanswered for me wrt french voter (typically high turnout in europe) trends; it's on a sunday though

Macron is the favourite and Fillon has been written off. Or has that changed?

you mean technically or because of the scandal?

i think le pen is going to win because the bottom half of her logo uses the "optima" font, a 20th century staple that for some reason has fallen out of favor in the past two decades.

gonna bow out of this quickly and encourage ilx's french revolution

The scandal, but I haven't been paying attention this week and, just checking there, it seems he could be on the way up again because he's chosen as a future Prime Minister someone that people actually like - well, like more than him anyway.

(xxp)

there have been more embarrassing details about the scandal coming out this week (if I understand correctly, Fillon had been claiming that his wife had only been on his payroll since 1997, but it's emerged that she was actually being paid to work for him since 1982?), but I guess that anyone still supporting Fillon at this point has p much accepted that he's corrupt, and further revelations won't really dent his support much?

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Le Pen vs Macron- Macron wins

Same

another graph, includes the % of ppl backing each candidate who say they might switch before polling day

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9cFisjWAAE0h6J.jpg

All I keep hearing from all the centrist types is Melenchon vs Le Pen is a nightmare + a cakewalk for the far right. I would love to see them proven wrong.

I'd missed that story last week about Le Pen playing down the Vichy role in the Holocaust. What a piece of human garbage - she should be buried alive with Marshal Petain's remains.

Those 'centrist types' are mostly worried because Le Pen vs. Mélenchon = Frexit.

"centrists" love nazis, always a great bogeyman to threaten left-leaning voters with

I voted Le Pen - Macron, Macron wins. Macron's wavering support isn't looking right. And things don't feel that volatile here right now. Macron - Fillon, I worry, but not against Le Pen.

Oh, the volatility is real if you consider the margin of error.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9XOLx8VYAEO5qd.jpg

this all looks fairly encouraging, with the caveat that those 'non exprimé' percentages are pretty high

I didn't mean it wasn't volatile, I meant the volatility of Macron, Mélanchon, Hamon doesn't indicate voters looking toward the right, i.e. toward Fillon or Le Pen. I expect that to continue in the second round, whoever the representatives of the left and right end up being.

Yeah, the chances of a Fillon vs. Le Pen run off are slim, which is certainly comforting, but in some ways Méluche vs. Le Pen would be even more damaging in the long run. I say this as someone who is strongly pro-EU and anti-Putin. Much like Brexit and Trump vs. Clinton, this election isn't just about France, even though it feels that way to most voters. The irreconcilable differences between Mélenchon and Macron/Hamon are not to be underestimated.

Pomemitul otm. Le Pen vs Melenchon = Frexit, or at least hardcore anti EU. Cant see a lot of Macron voters bothering to get behind Melenchon.

(But I've not followed this election run as close as I would have liked)

Le Pen v Melenchon runoff = a whole load of thinkpieces from New Wasteman types decentsplaining why they reluctantly have come round to supporting Le Pen and the FN

if either macron or le pen win, could they govern?

depends on legislative elections?

if he wins or not, there are already literally millions wearing the macron brand all over the world

Anything other than a classic LR (Fillon) or PS (Hamon) win would make for an unprecedented legislative conundrum. So expect that. However, Macron has already garnered quite a bit of support from the right's left and the left's right so it's less of an issue than it appears, at least for him. Le Pen would probably struggle the most.

" Macron has already garnered quite a bit of support from the right's left and the left's right "

made me think of this thread:p

Oh! I Always Get Those Two Mixed Up! [Started by New Mark H (New MarkH) in January 2007

The centrist's age-old predicament: 'I know thy works, that thou art neither cold nor hot: I would thou wert cold or hot. So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.'

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

I'd missed that story last week about Le Pen playing down the Vichy role in the Holocaust. What a piece of human garbage - she should be buried alive with Marshal Petain's remains.

i'm a little confused about this controversy and was hoping someone could enlighten me. bc it seems as tho she did not play down the Vichy role in the Holocaust - what she did was distinguish Vichy from the "legitimate" French government and pass all the blame to them thereby absolving *true* France of collaboration in the Holocaust. but it was my impression that such a magic trick by which the French all become partisans fighting the Nazis and collaborators are an aberration was actually prevalent throughout French society and not limited to the far right. Was I mistaken about that? Has France as a whole taken more responsibility for their role during WW2?

I'd say that was the prevalent view up until about 25 years ago. Mitterrand refused to say sorry on behalf of the French state but Chirac did in the mid-90s and Sarkozy and Hollande reiterated it.

Finish Him!!!!!

https://t.co/HGnimLB3BS

asking the relevant questions

@TheAtlantic
Can Marine Le Pen overcome France’s glass ceiling?

A few swift Nazi salutes should break right through that thing.

police officer and suspect shot dead on Champs Elysees.

i dreamt last night that le pen beat mélenchon in the 2nd rd

I have had few vivid election dreams before, but I do take a lot of Indian ginseng and Rhodiolia and it is sort of like a herbal speed for your REM time.

So far the top two vote-getters in this poll are still in contention. Macron will face Le Pen in the runoff.

Just popping in her to say that Le Pen looks exactly like Christine McVie.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-DqflXXsAERuQF.jpg

@TheAtlantic
Can Marine Le Pen overcome France’s glass ceiling?

― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, April 19, 2017 3:25 PM (four days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lol wtf