Scottish Independence - classic or dud

Would an independent Scotland be a pround member of the family of nations, or an impoverished backwater with a shortbread-based economy? Would it stick with sterling, adopt the Euro, or create its own new currency? Would Alex Saldmond set up reeducation camps in the outer Hebrides? Would the Orkneys secede from Scotland? And what would be the consequences for the rest of us in these islands if Scotland left the UK?

England down the toilet

Will the national animal of independent Scotland be a west highland terrier - and if so, a white or a black one?

Seriously though(?), not going to happen

Scotland would be alright til the oil runs out don't you think? Unless the King of Sweden starts getting ideas.

Will the national animal of independent Scotland be a west highland terrier

The Speug

if we could take a time machine and make scotland independent 40 years ago and have all those years of oil revenue spent on a population of just 5 million people and i could be living in a norway-esque land of prosperity and enlightenment it would be classic. as it stands i really don't give a fuck whatsoever and probably won't vote. altho i might be so blazé about it because my girlfriend lives in vancouver and i don't think im going to be living in scotland for too long.

also yeah it's def not going to happen. a third at best are in favour of independence in any poll ive ever seen. salmond obv will try and make it as vague as possible to maximise yes votes but even so.

classic but aint gonna happen (yet)

but what about.... DEVO MAX??

hopefully it will lead to more powers for Holyrood though. If labour campaign against that then they will be cutting their noses off to spite their face.

xp hah!

Devo Max ftw if the Tories + Liberals (turncoat bastards) allow it

if there is a vote and it's a no then i wouldn't expect another vote in our lifetimes tbh.

devo max sounds good to me. i would prob vote for that.

Lib Dems cannot possibly vote against more devolution, can they!??!?!??!

and only people in scotland should be allowed to vote, big tam (connery not d) doesnt live here so he shouldn't be allowed to vote.

what about non-Scots living in Scotland?

they live here they should have their say

would be nice if there was a positive debate on it rather than the scare tactics of the type the media are running now.

there is absolutely no chance of a positive debate because no one is actually arguing honestly and being real about the actual practical consequences, people are being guided by whatever nationalist feeling, scottish or british, they ascribe to and prognosticating an elysian/dystopian future for scotland should it become independent depending. disingenuity, hysterics, propaganda, and shite. and we've probably a couple of years of it to stomach.

aye

and afterwards the gloating

ive actually heard people talking about needing passports to get into england and i know there's gonna be no end to the shite peddled

id bet the result is at least 80% in favour of staying in the UK

Any time salmond comes on the tv my mum shouts at him. i dont think she even understands what any of the parties stand for. She just "voted labour all my life always will" but doesnt even know why.
Sadly thats the level of debate in scotland

id expect about 70%

salmond polls terribly with women.

he is a bit of a shouty, bully boy dick whenever he debates with a woman so that might be it.

An independant Scotland is quite likely to bear a strong resemblance to today's Scotland, but just a wee bit more so.

Salmonds smugness puts a lot of people off

this is the standard of debate by the labour party in scotland sadly
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-16576255

ive actually heard people talking about needing passports to get into england and i know there's gonna be no end to the shite peddled

― Jimmy Riddle Orchestra (Armand Schaubroeck Ratfucker),

this is not such an extreme suggestion though and certainly passport checks would be significantly less of a hassle than changing currency, right?

i means passport checks are the least of anyone's worries.

eh, schengen-esque situation would probs be easy to sort out.

it's almost as if political parties pitch their campaigns at the lowest possible common denominator

not like that high-minded theoretical debate about the "give the Lib Dems more votes" electoral system last year

Classic. If only because of never having to endure another Tory government that another country chose for us.

If only because of never having to endure another Tory government Maggie Thatcher that another country chose for inflicted upon us.

fixed

strikes me that the whole thing hangs on the currency. There are three choices, obv: 1. Keep Sterling, 2 A Scottish currency, 3. the Euro.

1. would be bad news because a) monetary policy would be set for England, and Scotland's economy has already suffered more than once from that and b) there'd be no lender of last resort for its dodgy banks

2. A lot of this would depend on how much UK debt an independent Scotland inherits, but either way it's really not clear how attractive a Scottish currency would be to the markets, and unless they tried to peg it to some stable currency (which comes with a shitload of its own problems) there's a fair chance it would just collapse.

3. Isn't a given, would be worse than 1 in terms of monetary policy, and also lol Euro.

Trying to go it alone from scratch is pretty plucky, but especially so when all the markets are bigger than you. What does it mean to be "independent" if your fiscal policy is going to be dictated by one of the Bank of England, the ECB or the international money markets?

It's too late to settle the scores of the 1970s, let alone the 1700s. Unless it's going to adopt some seriously isolationist policies Scotland would very much more likely be better off with devo max.

Full fiscal autonomy, sometimes referred to as devolution max[1], devo-max,[2] fiscal federalism,[3] independence lite,[4] or independence-minus,[5]

rather like yr currency choicee, u have a choice of bad terms

re the "keep sterling" choice, there's no suggestion that the rest of the UK would accept that. under a conservative govt. it's extremely unlikely beyond an initial grace period.

the UK wouldn't really have any choice -- Sterling's freely traded. It just wouldn't have to support the banks/act as a lender of last resort.

What does it mean to be "independent" if your fiscal policy is going to be dictated by one of the Bank of England, the ECB or the international money markets?

isn't this a question generally applicable to vast swathes of countries now, including eg. every Eurozone state not called France or Germany?

i say this because in some ways i think that exactly what makes Scottish "independence" viable is the death of the nation state as a serious thing

Yeah, it really does. I suppose at least in the ECB case you theoretically get some sort of a say in policy, which is better than the other alternatives. (Setting aside the horrible systemic problems of the Euro.)

But the voice Scotland has in the UK is much larger than the voice it would have in the EU.

That was an xp

ok i see, stet, i can't get my head around that (which is not so surprising considering that salmond isn't actually telling us anything).

Well, all it needs to do to adopt the pound is say "the currency of Scotland shall be the pound Sterling", accept the pound for payment of taxes, and pay its own debts in the pound. If it needs to raise money, it can sell Scottish government bonds at whatever rate the market sets, and it can buy Sterling on the money markets if required.

What it can't do is basic central bank stuff, like set an interest rate to control inflation or provide stimulus. It can't print (or do QE) either, so it can't inflate. It also can't be a lender of last resort, so if the RBS goes bankrupt again, the Scottish government wouldn't be able to save it, unless it happened to have enough cash (or could borrow enough) to do so.

Salmond's an economist, so he has to know all this. I can't decide if his pronouncements are disingenuous because he hopes few enough people will care, or if he wants this so badly he's pretending it's not true.

thanks for the explanation. basically it forgoes most things that form the basis of the thrust for independence in the first place then?

exactly, yeah.

i say go for it, it worked fucking wonders for us

Devo Max seems like a pretty obvious winner if it's a three way vote. What I don't get - and I'm probably being thick/missing the point - is, surely if it's included as an option then this will split the 'yes' vote and make independence even less likely? Does wee Eck know this, and is he just using full independence as a sort of red herring to gain more power for holyrood? I guess this is pretty unlikely given his zeal, but I can't really work it out otherwise..

Even if I know bugger all about all this, I find it quite exciting.

hope the independence brigade has the guts to use "better together" as their slogan

that would be amazing

HA

I am so done with this happening again already.

How amenable would the rest of the EU be to admitting Scotland? I would guess that Spain would veto pretty much anything and an independent Scotland stuck outside the EU is surely a disaster waiting to happen.

Inside the EU is an entirely different prospect obviously. Why go through the hassle of moving your headquarters from London to Frankfurt or Berlin when you can move it to Edinburgh or Glasgow and actually retain a lot of your staff.

it would be so righteous if it worked which is reason enough to think it never will

spain's horror of separatist condonation surely lessened somewhat by the prospect of brexit recalibration - at least they could pretend it created an entirely different situation. if you subscribe to the idea that the eu is keen to punish the uk and as a signal to any future waverers then they might consider rolling out a red carpet or implying that that could happen for a scotland so keen to remain in the eu that it would be willing to leave the uk with which it so recently renewed its vows

Voted no last time, would vote yes this time. I kind of hope the referendum options are switched this time, so as to bother all the folks who still have 'yes' posters/buttons etc.

Would vote "yes" if everything was switched so it was the same as a "no" last time?

No, I would vote for independence this time. Which would be no if switched. See, isn't this fun?

My wife was born and grew up in Scotland (with English parents) and has gone full circle from pro-union to heavily pro-independence since June. I suspect the Yes campaign would win comfortably this time around barring some extremely tough talking from the EU.

Idly wondering if I could pick up some kind of spousal EU passport if I don't live in Scotland and have minimal intention of doing so.

See, isn't this fun?

Voted no last time, would vote yes this time.

same, assuming that we could stay in / rejoin the eu

Legitimately considering the logistics of temporarily moving back home to vote yes next time. I still don't reckon independence will win though,polling doesnt suggest that brexit has precipitated a shift

Brexit and its affects haven't even started yet. Once Brexit has happened it might change if yes can make better arguments than last time.

Also Labour are unlikely to be 10 points ahead in the polls if indyref2 does happen.

I spoiled my ballot at the referendum because I couldn't vote in favour of independence and I couldn't bring myself to show any complicity with the current government. But I think were it to happen tomorrow I would vote against independence.

I think the SNP are doing so well by virtue of mere competence. The popularity of Corbyn shows that there is a mass appeal for left-leaning politics but Labour simply seem unable to get themselves together enough to do something - anything - that speaks to the people of Scotland. So it's been remarkably easy for Sturgeon to make the right noises without having to jostle against anyone - and the right noises in the current political climate are so alarmingly basic, all the SNP has to do is show themselves to not be a party for frothing racists and rich tax evaders and they're riding a wave of popularity. And the SNP has done some great work recently - what they've done for LGBT education in schools as well as care leavers has been really welcome. But a lot of it is emotional open goals. Mhairi Black might have chapped every door in Paisley and shown that you can be a young woman in a old man's world, but every time I see her speeches shared on Facebook I can predict exactly where they are going, and "look after old people" isn't exactly a politcally risky rhetoric.

What the SNP have done - brilliantly - at Westminster is withhold support on a lot of key issues that affect not just Scotland but the UK. I think that's such a vital thing. Without the SNP using their position to make life difficult for the Tories I think things could be a lot worse, not just for Scotland. The popularity of the party south of the border speaks to that too. I don't think it's right that we turn our backs on the people down south who are getting fucked over by a Government determined to strip them of all opportunity and security just because of an arbitrary line in the map. Social solidarity doesn't end at Gretna Green. The Yes campaign will argue that they want to build a better and fairer society - but who is that fairer for, exactly?

The other problem I have with the Yes campaign is that it wants to be all things to all people. When I was leaning towards Yes, I still had concerns and questions because, like most things, the issues aren't simply black or white. But when you dare criticise Yes or ask questions, you're portrayed as a snarling traitor to the cause. But the questions are still legitmate: how can we have a fair society when someone like Brian Soutar is pumping in all the financial support? How can we have Green policies if we're planning to make our money through oil?

And this isn't just in my little worldview of the ~100~ people on Facebook who discuss these things and the people I work/socialise with, it's everywhere. I know comment boxes and Twitter brings out the worst in everyone but I felt like in the original referendum something was very different (that's on both sides, of course). Every time BBC Scotland shares a story about a political development there's those little boxes trying to make people like me feel disgusting and abhorrent. Regardless of intent, that's what nationalism does: it divides into Us And Them. And I simply don't think denying people the wonderful things we have, we can do, simply because they aren't one of Us, is fair. UK Nationalism has become very ugly very quickly since Brexit. It scares me.

also something that has always stuck with me is that in this thread (or maybe another one) paolo posted about the actual voting figures and burst open the myth that Scotland is completely against the Tories: their percentage of seats may be low but their vote share is higher than that suggests and I think it's dangerously complacent to equate a Yes victory with a Tory wipeout.

booming posts - totally agree

The SNP is not especially popular South of the Border, in fact I think they're fundamentally mistrusted and Salmond himself comes across as fundamentally shifty. Sturgeon herself is pretty well respected though but the SNP have a uniquely easy time of it as far as current political parties go.

xxxp great post. I voted yes but with reservations last time, briefly became a hardcore yes supporter after the EU referendum and now I'm back to being a yes supporter with reservations. It'd be nice if there was some kind of arrangement that would allow Scotland to stay in the EU and the UK

Their popularity down south is hard to gauge north of the border. The Yes campaign will be quick to tell you that the BBC is biased far beyond reasonable fairness on the issue of indyref, and while it's indisputable that they dropped the ball on eg coverage of protests and rallies in Scotland (by giving them none) the problem is now that any time the BBC gives them any kind of criticism - in line with the criticism any other party would get - social media is quick to claim bias. This also assumes that people get their news from only one source and that they are too stupid to critically engage with their sources, which I don't believe is true. STV meanwhile might as well admit the S stands for Sturgeon.

The personal problem I have with the whole thing is that literally every single person I know is in favour of independence. So it's hard to measure that perspectice bias against the real world.

the visceral dislike of salmond in certain (perhaps mainly southern) English quarters that have no particular qualm with sturgeon is v mysterious to me

Salmond is very dislikeable person. No matter where you live. Where did this idea that SNP have any sort of popularity in England come from?

around the time of the last election I remember lots of left-liberal guardianista types in England saying they wished they could vote for the SNP or that England had an SNP style party, I don't think they're very representative though. mixture of resentment + grudging respect probably more typical.

worst manifestation of SNP "popularity" this side of the border has to be anti-Corbyn Labour types arguing for a "progressive English nationalism"

Sturgeon did well in the TV debates and gave the impression of a step away from Salmond's type of grandstanding populism. Also Sturgeon managed to give the impression that she actually gives a shit what happens to people south of Berwick.

I'll repeat my accusation that salmond stole a handful of chips from me in the 90s - without asking! Then when he found out we were seventeen so couldn't vote he fucked off. I do, however, love sturgeon. Maybe the most capable politican in the country. But I don't kid myself that her policies are the result of ideological commitment - they're stances assumed for another goal. If Scotland was fascist she would be criticisizing England for not letting Scotland deport foreigners.

I've heard some big ifs in my time but that one takes the prize.

ffs dowd

There is a difference between "no Trident on our doorstep" and "no Trident ever." There is a difference between "free school meals for all" and "free school meals for those who need them." Both policies strike me as populist moves rather than commitment to the ideas implied by their surface-level gestures.

I think dowd is just using an extreme example to make the point: SNP policy often seems to exist simply to counter the status quo.

when the status quo is so repellent i'm not sure that's much of a problem

Xp What's the point of making that example though if It's nonsense. I don't understand the point you are making with regard to the trident dichotomy. Nor the other one either. Nor do I understand that you are praising actions of the SNP in affecting certain policies - the key thing Is that their influence is extremely limited in Westminster - the times where scots can make a prioity of solidarity with friends in england are long gone in the face of where we are now and where we will end up, which will be much worse. it makes no sense to call the Anglo Scottish border "arbitrary" - the thing about borders is that they are aren't arbitrary (unless they're running though deserts and connecting two contested points and the EU referendum polling result %s around that border to see that the line is anything but arbitrary.

Show that that line is*

I mean, the fact that every single area north of that line voted to remain belies your claim that the border is an arbitrary line.

Well, I didn't think it was controversial. What's important to the SNP is Scotland's will, and that Scotland's will is being overruled. The content of that will isn't important.

It's hard to see how a left wing SNP would function in a right wing Scotland.

the fact that every single area north of that line voted to remain belies your claim that the border is an arbitrary line.

I don't follow that - borders have an effect, they don't just exist. the drawing and redrawing of every one of them is arbitrary but having been drawn of course they can seem to make some sort of sense and become self-reinforcing.

If the SNP were committed to a resolve against nuclear weaponry then they could do more than say "not on our doorstep." They can reap the benefits of the populist move but it doesn't translate into their pro-NATO membership stance which has been in place since 2012. Similarly, if the SNP were serious about raising people out of poverty then they would be offering free school meals to the most disadvantaged. Free school meals to everyone is a vote-winner, but it doesn't actually redress the imbalance caused by the root issue.

the times where scots can make a prioity of solidarity with friends in england are long gone in the face of where we are now and where we will end up, which will be much worse

I don't believe this is a one way direction, or at least I don't believe it has to be. We may have a limited voice in Westminster but we can do more by being there and speaking out as a voice for 60 million than we do speaking out for 6 million. I can understand and appreciate that self-interest is a good reason to support independence but I don't feel comfortable with the moral stance that we do more by turning our backs on our neighbours rather than helping them. The response to that is obvious - they voted for it so they can deal with the consequence - but it's not like the people who need the support (eg the disabled people being told they aren't too sick to work) are actively voting for the policies that ruin their lives and I'd rather be able to work towards helping those people than insulating our own culture.

We managed to elect a UKIP representative despite the complete lack of party presence here. I wouldn't be confident saying we're as different as we seem.

(my own political awakening was embarassingly late so if someone could explain how the SNP managed to shake off the Tartan Tories label in the Salmond era that would be interesting)

it's been a while I think tartan tories was before thatcher the poll tax tory toxicity in scotland thus the imperative of rhetorical distance then devolution new labour providing them with a ready-made space to fill and their taking the opportunity

Nobody under 50 says tartan tories

I don't follow that - borders have an effect, they don't just exist. the drawing and redrawing of every one of them is arbitrary but having been drawn of course they can seem to make some sort of sense and become self-reinforcing.

― conrad, Sunday, 16 October 2016 17:10 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

An excellent point which I take it on board but I'm not sure we're saying different things merely that I expressed myself inadequately. I do contest that these drawn lines are arbitrary- they very rarely are - but yes, you are right that borders can reinforce and exacerbate divisions but this hostility is less sharp in the borders and in fact the hostility between unionists and independents, while still mild on the whole, is probably sharper in areas far from the border in for e.g. Aberdeenshire or even Shetland. Or even in Glasgow with the idiotic and depressing Catholic and Protestant hostilities.

I was actually a potential no voter until two months or so prior to the referendum and my switch to Yes was quite extreme (and remains so) which may say more about my mental state and less about political logistics.

Re: My friend, boxedjoy's stance that it needn't be a one way street, that the situation may change, that we can do more as 50 voting voices for 55 million than we can for 6 million is something that, at this point, I simply do not and cannot accept. I think this is breaking point. We all exist in these social media fuelled bubbles and obviously I feel more solidarity politically with NV or Matt DC, among others, than with many of my neighbours but Westminster feels fucking toxic rn and I don't think that is a two-way street that will change or become better for scots at any time in the future. Scotland really does feel like another country now. It's done.

Or even in Glasgow with the idiotic and depressing Catholic and Protestant hostilities.

Yeah, let's pin that one on Glasgow.

Sturgy is a big beast on Twitter.

yes for me too it doesn't feel like a "two-way street" in any productive or meaningful way and it's frustration with that and my feeling about the general direction of the uk (I feel like it isn't good, that it's bad) that makes me a scexiteer

(SNIFFING AND INDISTINCT SOBBING) do you imagine that anyone thinks glasgow invented catholic and protestant hostilities? or do you think that catholic and protestant hostilities don't exist or aren't significant in glasgow?

... and elsewhere.

Anyway I don't think of it in terms of "Catholic and Protestant hostilities" so much as anti-Catholic bigotry. Which is about as Scottish as you can get.

at this point in time i wouldn't ask anybody in Scotland to remain shackled to the hateful dying mammoth that is Englishness tbh

i really just feel a great sadness about a divorce that can probably no longer be stopped: irreconcileable differences etc

i live in hackney, pockets of gentrification and hipsters notwithstanding, a still-poor london borough that has voted reliably left since time immemorial*, is one of the most multicultural urban areas in europe and was one of the biggest remain voters blah blah yay hackney

losing the scottish left bloc leaves the poor and the non-white in london even more exposed, and the reliable inner city left vulnerable to the ethic and social cleansing that is already happening -- i don't blame scotland for looking to itself! but i would resent any hint of "fuck hackney" that i heard (i can't really imagine it here obviously, but, well, there are definitely twitter cybernats capable of this kind of yell…)

my observations re the snp are
a) there is a definitely political divide between its support (esp.recently) and its institutions
b) nicola sturgeon is probably the most gifted UK politican active today, not least because so far this divide has not really manifested in any kind of public tension, and much of this is down to her leadership
c) is the divide as great as that between labour party members and the PLP? hard to say, because of said non-manifestation
d) wee banker eck is the very picture of a neoliberal (embarrassingly close to both RBS and murdoch) -- of course he is no longer in charge (and this is significant) but it is the party he built and at some level still partially reflects that
e) in a decade's government at holyrood the snp was by no means as obviously left as (i) its rhetoric then and now and (ii) its supporters consider themselves (probably correctly: my closest non-ilx friend who is a convert to independence after a liftetime's scorn is a enthusiastic castroite communist
f) so the divide -- currently masked by the situation, which sturgeon is playing well and others not so well -- probably IS nearly as big as labour's, tho not of course exacerbated by decades of mutual proximity and hostility
g) the snp is a small party in parliamentary terms, with impressively tight discipline -- this will probably take them in and through the indie vote very effectively; afterwards is quite another matter… but by then hackney will no longer be able to help out, really :(

*ie since a time when calling the snp tartan tories was just the truth -- the snp is where the scottish tory vote went in the 60s and 70s

i think i used to see religious conflict (and yes, generally in the form of anti-catholic bigotry) in the west of scotland as some kind of self-explanatory toxic given, but now when i return and encounter it i feel completely at a loss when it comes to having any understanding of it. the obvious element of people with no particular religious commitment and no particular political commitment suddenly having vast reserves of both when it comes to e.g. the question of unionism is absurd but explicable in the typical prejudicial othering manner, but when in most aspects of everyday life catholics and protestants are seamlessly integrated it seems to come down to some baffling inchoate bigotry towards friends, family members, husbands and wives, which i just cannot get my head around.