Will UKIP win the Newark by-election?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/newark-by-election/winning-party

A bet on the Tory majority would be interesting. Cut to maybe 8000.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Huge win here for UKIP then.

you don't see results like that anymore

system "works"

A bet on the Tory majority would be interesting. Cut to maybe 8000.

7403, so not a bad guess.

suspect this was UKIP's last best hope for a seat

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-defects-tory-mp-byelection

Bump

Interesting.

don't think they've got much more chance than the last one, if they can't win one of these i don't see how they can hope to win a seat in a general election

So can a sitting MP call a by-election in his own constituency?

And then put himself up for election in that same by-election?

I only recall MPs resigning to the chiltern 100s or whatever, and not coming back.

MP can change parties, there may not have to be a by-election if they do iirc, but calling one is seen as the honourable option

At least the Tory right are doing their best to make it difficult for Cameron to win the next election, about time the Labour Party started doing the same.

the what now?

Polling suggests that Carswell could get 64% of the vote vs Conservatives at 20%.

what if ukip modern day?

At least the Tory right are doing their best to make it difficult for Cameron to win the next election, about time the Labour Party started doing the same.

― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Thursday, 28 August 2014 12:44 (4 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the what now?

― Daphnis Celesta, Thursday, 28 August 2014 12:47 (4 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

can't work out if this is riffing on labour party or the idea of a Tory 'centre or left'

c'mon i've been doing RIP Labour for long enough now

fuck me UKIP are 8/1 on, finally a chance to shine on the biggest stage

time to lay up against the eventuality imo

price on the Tories not enticing enough sadly

this carswell man

Carswell Man was a hoax perpetrated in 1925 when a Bonobo skeleton was claimed to be evidence of the "missing link"

theres something to be said for the worst sort of human faeces like carswell explicitly rupturing themselves from the conservative party, since it more clearly demonstrates the bankruptcy of the post 2005/2010 right with their relentless xenophobia, delusory belief in the existence of the 'anglosphere' as a viable polity, identification with the american right, infatuation with flat taxes, apparently sincere belief that anthopogenic climate change is a fiction, etc etc