Very different players, but I might put him on par with Walker. Walker does better on the JAWS scale by 10+ WAR, but I think that's distorted a little bit by his years in Colorado and Guerrero's early retirement. Their years in Montreal are hard to compare--Vlad was there during the offensive boom, whereas Walker caught just the beginning--but for what it's worth:
Guerrero -- 1004 games, .323/.390/.588, 234 HR, 148 OPS+, 5.8 WAR/650 PAWalker -- 674 games, .281/.357/.483, 99 HR, 128 OPS+, 5.6 WAR/650 PA
Again, hard to compare. Walker was just getting started when he left, Vlad had his greatest years there.
― clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2016 23:36 (seven years ago) link
wasn't sure vlad was ever gonna get in, surprised he could be a first ballot guy
― qualx, Thursday, 29 December 2016 23:59 (seven years ago) link
always thought walker was a hof player, vlad too def
― johnny crunch, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:00 (seven years ago) link
looks like raines is going to slide in easily and here i was worried he wouldn't crack through in the end.
― nomar, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:18 (seven years ago) link
i have a little hope for larry walker even though he's only got three years after this one. i feel like he could be the next cause célèbre for a lot of the writers. out of the batters on the ballot, he seems to be the one who needs the most help and who would deserve it. can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade.
― nomar, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:23 (seven years ago) link
As a Jays fan, I find it puzzling that McGriff is still hanging around on the ballot and Delgado didn't even last a year. Slightly different eras, I know. But to me, McGriff just treaded water after the age of 30, whereas Delgado was fairly productive right till he was 36 (and then left the game quickly). And even accounting for era, McGriff didn't have a season as awesome as Delgado's 2000 (or maybe his 2003, too). I don't ever recall any kind of PED suspicion with Delgado, so I don't know why he had such little support.
― clemenza, Friday, 30 December 2016 05:48 (seven years ago) link
In Florida, early voting trends narrowly favor Clinton
― salthigh, Friday, 30 December 2016 06:31 (seven years ago) link
What changed with Bonds and Clemens? Was it just a matter of getting through the backlog of other deserving candidates?
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 30 December 2016 16:01 (seven years ago) link
Delighted getting in
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:20 (seven years ago) link
Selig
https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/805561827434168320
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:21 (seven years ago) link
^others basically say the same but Slusser was on the front of the discussion
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:22 (seven years ago) link
can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade
i'm not sure how many years edgar has left, but i've seen writers energized by the fact that his numbers are significantly better than david ortiz's
plus if trevor hoffman gets in, there's even less of a rationale for excluding designated hitters
― mookieproof, Friday, 30 December 2016 21:23 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1D20NLVIAAVw64.jpg:small
say what you want about selig/steroids/etc -- the main issue is clown voters
― mookieproof, Sunday, 1 January 2017 05:22 (seven years ago) link
It is funny because Vlad was actually Gold Glove good in 1998, and an absolute defensive disaster the rest of the career. How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career? What clicked in Vlad's brain that year?
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 3 January 2017 19:52 (seven years ago) link
How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career?
Haven't checked Jeter numbers; he had an anomalously good D-metrics year in 2012, I think?
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 3 January 2017 21:24 (seven years ago) link
Jay Jaffe on Vlad's case
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/13/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-vladimir-guerrero
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 4 January 2017 16:01 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1WdaGzUQAEevGB.jpg
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 4 January 2017 19:51 (seven years ago) link
there are a lot of guys getting a good percentage this year. really surprised by Bonds and Clemens both still hovering around 70% and surprised to see how Mussina has both gained and lost a decent number of votes from returning voters (i'm assuming it has something to do w/Raines seeing a huge jump and people finally deciding to cast their votes for the PED suspects, Vlad, and I-Rod.)
next year i'm gonna guess Edgar gets in, along w/maybe one of the current top five who may miss out? Chipper is a shoo-in, Thome seems like a probable near-miss but he shouldn't be.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:14 (seven years ago) link
still think Larry Walker has a shot at a significant groundswell of support but i'm probably overestimating it.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
thome's in, no prob
― mookieproof, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:21 (seven years ago) link
i trust the voters to do the right thing more than I did a few years ago but i'm not betting on it. i hope you're right! he was really, really well-liked and also HI I'M JIM THO
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:32 (seven years ago) link
the PED suspects, Vlad
Didn't know that. I always thought Guerrero was like Griffey, completely free of suspicion.
― clemenza, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:57 (seven years ago) link
don't think that's what he meant
― mookieproof, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:58 (seven years ago) link
Ah, the serial comma...(I-Rod is a PED suspect, though, which is what threw me.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 5 January 2017 19:03 (seven years ago) link
yeah but he's like Bagwell or Piazza as opposed to Clemens or Bonds or McGwire.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 19:24 (seven years ago) link
I thought there was some legitimate suspicion with him? he never really looked the part
― qualx, Thursday, 5 January 2017 21:13 (seven years ago) link
didn't even notice posada was on the ballot this year, shocked he might be eliminated. i figured he had a good chance of getting in eventually, and i think he probably deserves it, but i guess i'm going to spend the rest of my days crusading for people to adjust their standards for catchers
― qualx, Monday, 9 January 2017 01:36 (seven years ago) link
posada's a hall of very good for me
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 January 2017 02:43 (seven years ago) link
and we all know my thoughts on catchers
very few of the names mentioned here really seem "all-time" to me tbrr
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 9 January 2017 07:47 (seven years ago) link
bonds, clemens, manny. that's it for me
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 9 January 2017 07:50 (seven years ago) link
seem vs the evidence, tho
i think we have lived in a time of viewing great players as mere mortals, very often.
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 January 2017 15:38 (seven years ago) link
(xpost) I think even a small-hall ballot ought to include Bagwell and I-Rod.
― clemenza, Monday, 9 January 2017 15:46 (seven years ago) link
there are 11 guys i'd vote for (bagwell, bonds, clemens, vlad, martinez, mussina, raines, ramirez, rodriguez, schilling, walker), and i'd think about throwing a vote to kent, mcgriff, sheffield, and sosa after awhile. hoffman, posada, smith, and wagner...idk. i'm agnostic on closers and posada was good but not THAT good.
― nomar, Monday, 9 January 2017 16:49 (seven years ago) link
no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 January 2017 17:08 (seven years ago) link
that should be in the BBWAA rules
― nomar, Monday, 9 January 2017 17:10 (seven years ago) link
Held back by his base running and defensive deficiencies, his 42.7 career WAR ranks 18th all-time—respectable, but 10 wins below the average Hall of Famer and ahead of just four of the 14 enshrined, including Roy Campanella, whose career was shortened by the color line. Posada looks better on the basis of his 32.7 peak score, which ranks 16th but is just 1.5 wins below the standard and is ahead of six enshrined catchers, only one of whom (Gabby Hartnett) was elected by the BBWAA. Posada is also 16th in JAWS, 6.7 points below the standard and ahead of just four enshrined catchers, including the BBWAA-elected Campanella. Given that Posada's Monitor score is modest, his postseason numbers (.248/.358/.387) lackluster and his framing numbers awful, I just don't see enough to overturn that JAWS verdict. Posada is not even the best Yankees catcher outside the Hall: Thurman Munson (45.9/37.0/41.5) ranks 12th on JAWS and is above the peak standard despite a career cut short after 10 1/2 seasons due to his death.
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/16/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-jorge-posada
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 January 2017 17:32 (seven years ago) link
i guess mauer should retire now -- he has the stats to get in as a catcher, but not as a first baseman
― mookieproof, Monday, 9 January 2017 17:53 (seven years ago) link
Not at all saying they will, but another decade of Kimbrel and/or Chapman doing what they do now would be good enough for me.
― clemenza, Monday, 9 January 2017 18:48 (seven years ago) link
closers tend to get elected because saves are a made-up stat they can collect pretty easily and the heightened drama of getting the final out. not gonna deny that these are mostly good pitchers but oftentimes they're not really great or even very good. chapman is pretty impressive, kimbrel less so, but idk. these guys aren't much better than andrew miller or betances or jansen. probably should just have a special wing of the hall for guys who whined that they didn't want to face more than three batters at a time and only in the 9th inning please.
― nomar, Monday, 9 January 2017 19:17 (seven years ago) link
the best failed starters in baseball!
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 9 January 2017 19:20 (seven years ago) link
i expect Gooose Gossage to rush the stage if the 3-out guys get in
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 January 2017 19:28 (seven years ago) link
The tracker address above was changed for some reason. New link:
http://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw
Bonds and Clemens are under 65% now, so clearly won't happen this year. Guerrero is just barely above 75%, so he'll probably miss too.
I read a lot of Schilling advocacy after his slow start, and the gap between him and Mussina has closed a lot. Mussina's still ahead at 60%--they still have five years each, so they should be fine. And I imagine Edgar (67%) will get the same last-year push as Raines in 2019.
Whether or not Walker becomes a cause, can't see him making up 50% in his three remaining years.
Hoffman will wait one more year, I-Rod on the cusp; Raines has even passed Bagwell for the time being.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 03:41 (seven years ago) link
Considering how quickly closers flame out, it's hardly worth talking about whether Chapman, Kimbrel, Jansen, etc. are on a HOF career path or not. Everyone knows that saves are overvalued or even meaningless, and hard throwing middle relievers are all over baseball, but it's still rare for anyone to have a 15+ year career as a dominant reliever. If Kimbrel or Chapman were to put up another ten dominant years and finish with 600+ saves, then I probably would support their election to the HOF, but it's so unlikely to happen that it's almost impossible to project.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 10:20 (seven years ago) link
even when hoffman had all those seasons where he walked out to an AC/DC song and threw hard for a few minutes every several days, i never thought he was a hall of famer.
― nomar, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 17:15 (seven years ago) link
edgar gets in next year for sure, he's had the biggest net gain among voters, his +30 is even more than raines' +25.
― nomar, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 17:18 (seven years ago) link
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2686125-seligs-call-to-the-hall-shouldnt-bring-flood-of-new-names-to-cooperstown#
not a particularly bright guy, this one. compares schilling in his prime unfavorably to JACK MORRIS.
― nomar, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 17:38 (seven years ago) link
Fixed:
Curt Schilling: This has zero to do with Jack Morris saying "I don't talk to women when I'm naked unless they're on top of me or I'm on top of them" to a woman journalist, but I would take Jack Morris in his prime over Schilling in his prime only if innings pitched is the lone stat that matters.
― Andy K, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 18:07 (seven years ago) link
poor man's murray chass
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 10 January 2017 18:33 (seven years ago) link
Hope Edgar gets there first, but I think Ortiz is automatic at this point.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 17:47 (seven years ago) link
Some cool pics of I-Rod visiting Puerto Rico today and tonight going around on the internet I saw on a baseball group on Facebook. He visited a children's hospital and then was a guest at the team he played winter ball back on.
― earlnash, Saturday, 28 January 2017 06:44 (seven years ago) link
Is there a chance for Scott Rolen to get in? or is he going to Edmondsed?
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 29 January 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
I think he's headed for a Tim Raines-like extended stay on the ballot, but because things are moving more and more in a sabermetric direction, he will get in towards the end of his 10 years.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:01 (seven years ago) link
he's gonna have trouble getting 5% though, isn't he? the ballot is still crowded
― k3vin k., Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:04 (seven years ago) link