"Analysts" would seem to align better with the BBWAA, and just call it media.
I don't think it's a bad idea, but a majority is too low--you'd get four or five inductees most years, I would think. I'd put it at 60%, or two-thirds. I thought three or four years ago that things were going to improve: the logjam was gone, and it was clear that the main group of PED players weren't going in (which at least meant that that debate wouldn't drone on). But it feels really messy again.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 27 January 2021 05:25 (three years ago) link
The BBWAA thinks that (alleged) drug use is a bigger crime than the stuff that Schilling says? IDGI.
Cronyism on the various HOF committees is more out of control than at any point since the 60's. Maybe people will look at Schilling's comments and take it as a sign that the process needs to change (yet again).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 27 January 2021 11:15 (three years ago) link
>The BBWAA thinks that (alleged) drug use is a bigger crime than the stuff that Schilling says?
yes AND capitol insurrection was jan 6th and ballots were due Dec 31. I would think there would be SOME attrition if ballots hadn't already been mailed. Nevertheless...
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 27 January 2021 16:00 (three years ago) link
Scott Rolen's character seems pretty good why isn't he in ffs.
― Van Horn Street
he had a big jump in votes this year (52.9%, up from 35% or so), and jay jaffe seems to think he's on a glide path to election in a couple years
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 January 2021 22:27 (three years ago) link
I think he's a sure-thing, just not sure when. He may get held back by Ortiz next year; in 2023, Beltran comes on, in 2024 it's Beltre.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 27 January 2021 23:35 (three years ago) link
I’m excited for Beltre. Dude had such a productive golden years to his career. I hope his plaque has a hand reaching for his head off to the side.
With Rolen, I didn’t realize his career WAR had made it into the 70s (just). A few GG and all star games, a ROY - but only finished top ten in MVP once and never led the league in any notable offensive category ever (I find the later kind of surprising).
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 28 January 2021 06:35 (three years ago) link
Hey Curt: What Hall of Famer said 12 Swiss Jewish bankers ruled the world, the last 8 US presidents were “traitors” and AIDS was hatched in a Maryland lab in order to kill gays and blacks and still got 95.82 pct of the vote? A: Steve Carlton. P.S. I voted for him and for you.— Bob Ryan (@GlobeBobRyan) January 28, 2021
― Karl Malone, Friday, 29 January 2021 02:28 (three years ago) link
bob . . . thanks
― mookieproof, Friday, 29 January 2021 03:17 (three years ago) link
What a steaming pile of a hot take.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 29 January 2021 04:48 (three years ago) link
"Freedom of speech got your ass out of Cooperstown, bro'"
The Straw that Stirs the drink has spoken.
― earlnash, Sunday, 31 January 2021 17:50 (three years ago) link
I think with Schilling you really have to talk about what a nonentity he was in his twenties. He had a few very good seasons on some bad Phillies teams, especially age 30 and age 31, where his strikeout rate dramatically improved over what he showed in his twenties. In his first all-star appearance at age 30, he was the Phillies' only all star. He was basically Jason Schmidt, the ace of a bad team.
How many guys in the Hall of Fame had zero all star appearances prior to age 30?
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Sunday, 31 January 2021 18:48 (three years ago) link
probably a good amount of guys that retired before 1933.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 31 January 2021 19:51 (three years ago) link
I thought of two that check out, although for obvious reasons they're almost the exceptions that prove the rule: Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm.
― clemenza, Sunday, 31 January 2021 20:49 (three years ago) link
i think adrian beltre might fit the bill, once he gets in.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml
if i'm reading that correctly, he didn't make an all-star team until age 31, despite finishing 2nd in the MVP race at age 25 with the dodgers
― Karl Malone, Monday, 1 February 2021 00:42 (three years ago) link
Veteran's Committee nominations for this year (two categories):
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-hall-of-fame-announces-early-baseball-golden-days-era-committee-ballots-for-2022/
These committees are a mystery, but my guesses would be Buck O'Neil and Dick Allen.
― clemenza, Saturday, 6 November 2021 03:22 (two years ago) link
jeez, there are many, many, worthy candidates here
buck o'neil, dick allen, but also minnie minoso and gil hodges. ken boyer and lefty o'doul as well
― just staying (Karl Malone), Saturday, 6 November 2021 05:10 (two years ago) link
not sure about all of them, but i just mean there's a ton of good candidates here
― just staying (Karl Malone), Saturday, 6 November 2021 05:11 (two years ago) link
Pretty much all of those 'golden days' players probably should have gotten the call when they were around. They can throw in Vada Pinson and Curt Flood too why they are at it.
I'm sure all the others probably should be there too.
― earlnash, Sunday, 7 November 2021 23:28 (two years ago) link
Lefty O'Doul looks pretty suspect--a prime that lasted all of four years, inflated offensive era, and his home stats for '29/30, his two biggest years, are freakish. Shibe Park was infamous--he hit .453 at home in 1929.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 00:35 (two years ago) link
yeah, but his name is lefty o'doul, first off, and his HOF case depends on what you think of his non-playing activities. i love the wikipedia citations argument going on in the second paragraph here:
O'Doul was instrumental in spreading baseball's popularity in Japan, serving as the sport's goodwill ambassador before and after World War II. The Tokyo Giants, sometimes considered "Japan's Baseball Team", were named by him in 1935 in honor of his longtime association with the New York Giants; the logo and uniform of the Giants in Japan strongly resemble their North American counterparts.O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]
O'Doul was inducted into the San Francisco Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame in 1981 and the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 2002. He has the highest career batting average of any player eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame who is not enshrined.[original research] Contrary to popular belief,[whose?] his hitting exceeded the standard of his era;[citation needed] had he played his first full season prior to the age of 31, he would likely have been inducted.[opinion]
― just staying (Karl Malone), Monday, 8 November 2021 03:11 (two years ago) link
i guess there's an argument that what he did in japan doesn't factor into his MLB case. but since MLB is currently the de facto "world league" (the best players come to the U.S. to play baseball, generally, when they can), I feel like playing a key role in supporting the game globally should be worth a lot
― just staying (Karl Malone), Monday, 8 November 2021 03:12 (two years ago) link
All valid, I do think such things should count; and if you throw in all his PCL years, he hit .351 over a 27-year career. Still feels kind of iffy to me.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 03:46 (two years ago) link
Posnanski: "Lefty O’Doul is really fascinating because he has not really been considered for the Hall of Fame in several decades." Sounds like he's amenable.
― clemenza, Monday, 8 November 2021 14:49 (two years ago) link
There's a guy I bowl with who's a big Giants fan; he thinks Lincecum will get in towards the end of his 10-year window. A little starry-eyed, to put it mildly...Memorable guy, great 2-3 year peak. My own guess is that he gets 30% first time around, maybe a little higher, and that's the best he ever does.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 02:44 (two years ago) link
His drop off was so fast and kind of shocking really. That peak was amazing, but for sure too brief for the hall. God bless your friend tho.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 24 November 2021 05:01 (two years ago) link
Without checking, my guess is that Lincecum sits at the bottom of the list of pitchers with two or more Cy Youngs--him and McClain. More peak value for McClain (meaning the two Cy years only), more career value for Lincecum.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:39 (two years ago) link
I can now verify this to be true. After those two, you take a big leap up to maybe Kluber and Saberhagen.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:42 (two years ago) link
(McClain actually has slightly more career bWAR than Lincecum, more than 75% of it from his two Cy years.)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:44 (two years ago) link
I can't see him doing any better than Johan did
― ✖, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:49 (two years ago) link
2.4% and out--you're probably right, don't know why I said 30%. Obviously, Santana was a much more qualified candidate; there is a legitimate peak argument for Santana, and even for his career he edged over 50.0 bWAR.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 22:38 (two years ago) link
i've been a bit johanpilled by his supporters... he definitely shouldn't have been a one and done at least. maybe i'm biased because this was when i first started watching baseball seriously, but he *felt* like the best pitcher in the world from 04-06 and literally the only good pitcher in the AL. should've won 3 CYs.
― ✖, Thursday, 25 November 2021 01:35 (two years ago) link
Is Lincecum really better than Hershiser or Doc Gooden?
Gut feeling says no.
― earlnash, Thursday, 25 November 2021 03:19 (two years ago) link
I don't think so, no, not for peak (late '80s Hershiser, Gooden early on) or career. Hershiser in '88 and Gooden in '85 were phenomenal. Cone was better, Stieb was better, Viola was probably better, a lot of guys were. Sounds like I'm really down on Lincecum; I'm not, just reacting to this guy I know thinking he's HOF-bound. He was one of the best reasons to watch baseball for a few years...a very few years.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:02 (two years ago) link
Where do fidrych and lincecum rank on similarity scores
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:38 (two years ago) link
Great comparison in a lot of ways (starting with haircut), but Fidrych only pitched 150 innings total after his first season.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:41 (two years ago) link
Grim list:
Alex Fernandez (958.1)Jake Arrieta (956.5)Charlie Morton (950.2)Scott Kazmir (948.8)Sid Fernandez (942.5)Lance Lynn (942.4)Jim Bibby (940.6)Jose Rijo (939.3)Yovani Gallardo (938.8)Pete Harnisch (938.8)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 05:12 (two years ago) link
I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.
Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.
RijoBig SidArrieta (really one killer year)Kazmir
Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.
LynnMorton FernandezHarnisch
Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 00:30 (two years ago) link
grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.
clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 02:38 (two years ago) link
He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:47 (two years ago) link
I was reading a roundup by Jay Jaffe the other day and a) Vizquel's personal issues were even nastier than I knew, and b) Jaffe seems to think Ortiz is on the fence; I'd bet money he goes in right away.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:49 (two years ago) link
ortiz seems like a good 3rd-4th year candidate, but yeah, i think he'll make it
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 04:03 (two years ago) link
In terms of the "fame" part, the dude helped break the curse of the Bambino. That's about as legendary as you can get.
I think people hitting playoff homers in droves over the past couple decades kinda makes the numbers maybe not quite as impressive, but criminy at that point I don't think I had ever seen one batter pretty much pick up his team and carry them like Ortiz did in '04.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 12:21 (two years ago) link
Ortiz should be a no brainer first ballot selection but the 2003 steroid test still hangs over him like a cloud, so the voters might make him wait a few of years just because, like they did with Piazza and Bagwell.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 26 November 2021 15:22 (two years ago) link
I mean the 2003 leak is only hard on the voters bc it requires them to be consistent in the application of their morality; p sure everyone wants to see ortiz in because it would be fun (he shd be in even if just for big hall reasons)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 November 2021 16:00 (two years ago) link
i revise my estimate to 1st or 2nd year. I see that Vlad (SENIOR) got 70% in the first year, made it in on the second. Ortiz has very comparable stats to Vlad, + the curse + "Big Papi" stuff. i wouldn't say no-brainer first ballot (just because he was a DH), but it's possible
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 17:50 (two years ago) link
Just a gut feeling--he'll get a pass on the PED issue (enough of one, anyway), and Edgar paved the way for first-ballot.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 21:15 (two years ago) link
yeah he’s in first ballot I think. certainly within 2-3 years
― k3vin k., Saturday, 27 November 2021 02:47 (two years ago) link
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI
First ballot in--defiantly pro-PED/MAGA.
― clemenza, Sunday, 28 November 2021 00:10 (two years ago) link
The rest of my life is going to be annoying
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:40 (two years ago) link
welcome to middle age
― mookieproof, Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:55 (two years ago) link