(McClain actually has slightly more career bWAR than Lincecum, more than 75% of it from his two Cy years.)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:44 (two years ago) link
I can't see him doing any better than Johan did
― ✖, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 16:49 (two years ago) link
2.4% and out--you're probably right, don't know why I said 30%. Obviously, Santana was a much more qualified candidate; there is a legitimate peak argument for Santana, and even for his career he edged over 50.0 bWAR.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 November 2021 22:38 (two years ago) link
i've been a bit johanpilled by his supporters... he definitely shouldn't have been a one and done at least. maybe i'm biased because this was when i first started watching baseball seriously, but he *felt* like the best pitcher in the world from 04-06 and literally the only good pitcher in the AL. should've won 3 CYs.
― ✖, Thursday, 25 November 2021 01:35 (two years ago) link
Is Lincecum really better than Hershiser or Doc Gooden?
Gut feeling says no.
― earlnash, Thursday, 25 November 2021 03:19 (two years ago) link
I don't think so, no, not for peak (late '80s Hershiser, Gooden early on) or career. Hershiser in '88 and Gooden in '85 were phenomenal. Cone was better, Stieb was better, Viola was probably better, a lot of guys were. Sounds like I'm really down on Lincecum; I'm not, just reacting to this guy I know thinking he's HOF-bound. He was one of the best reasons to watch baseball for a few years...a very few years.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:02 (two years ago) link
Where do fidrych and lincecum rank on similarity scores
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:38 (two years ago) link
Great comparison in a lot of ways (starting with haircut), but Fidrych only pitched 150 innings total after his first season.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 November 2021 04:41 (two years ago) link
Grim list:
Alex Fernandez (958.1)Jake Arrieta (956.5)Charlie Morton (950.2)Scott Kazmir (948.8)Sid Fernandez (942.5)Lance Lynn (942.4)Jim Bibby (940.6)Jose Rijo (939.3)Yovani Gallardo (938.8)Pete Harnisch (938.8)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 25 November 2021 05:12 (two years ago) link
I would not say grim, there are some good pitchers there.
Some are like Lincecum in that they were really good some near the best for a couple seasons and then the injuries happened.
RijoBig SidArrieta (really one killer year)Kazmir
Then some are guys that are more just solid, some up and down periods.
LynnMorton FernandezHarnisch
Then there are a couple late bloomers like Jim Bibby who I think was a reliever for a long while that suddenly had some success as a starter for the Pirates.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 00:30 (two years ago) link
grim list in terms of HOF chances, i guess.
clemenza your friend has no idea, lincecum has 0% chance. but he's a 100% SFG hall of famer, if they have one
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 02:38 (two years ago) link
He's just a guy I bowl with--I've known him for three months...I enjoy talking baseball with him, he's got something to say on almost any name that pops up, but no, I won't be consulting him if I'm ever in a HOF pool or something like that.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:47 (two years ago) link
I was reading a roundup by Jay Jaffe the other day and a) Vizquel's personal issues were even nastier than I knew, and b) Jaffe seems to think Ortiz is on the fence; I'd bet money he goes in right away.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 03:49 (two years ago) link
ortiz seems like a good 3rd-4th year candidate, but yeah, i think he'll make it
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 04:03 (two years ago) link
In terms of the "fame" part, the dude helped break the curse of the Bambino. That's about as legendary as you can get.
I think people hitting playoff homers in droves over the past couple decades kinda makes the numbers maybe not quite as impressive, but criminy at that point I don't think I had ever seen one batter pretty much pick up his team and carry them like Ortiz did in '04.
― earlnash, Friday, 26 November 2021 12:21 (two years ago) link
Ortiz should be a no brainer first ballot selection but the 2003 steroid test still hangs over him like a cloud, so the voters might make him wait a few of years just because, like they did with Piazza and Bagwell.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 26 November 2021 15:22 (two years ago) link
I mean the 2003 leak is only hard on the voters bc it requires them to be consistent in the application of their morality; p sure everyone wants to see ortiz in because it would be fun (he shd be in even if just for big hall reasons)
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 26 November 2021 16:00 (two years ago) link
i revise my estimate to 1st or 2nd year. I see that Vlad (SENIOR) got 70% in the first year, made it in on the second. Ortiz has very comparable stats to Vlad, + the curse + "Big Papi" stuff. i wouldn't say no-brainer first ballot (just because he was a DH), but it's possible
― just staying (Karl Malone), Friday, 26 November 2021 17:50 (two years ago) link
Just a gut feeling--he'll get a pass on the PED issue (enough of one, anyway), and Edgar paved the way for first-ballot.
― clemenza, Friday, 26 November 2021 21:15 (two years ago) link
yeah he’s in first ballot I think. certainly within 2-3 years
― k3vin k., Saturday, 27 November 2021 02:47 (two years ago) link
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!39939&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!AK9u16pmWGGlQsI
First ballot in--defiantly pro-PED/MAGA.
― clemenza, Sunday, 28 November 2021 00:10 (two years ago) link
The rest of my life is going to be annoying
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:40 (two years ago) link
welcome to middle age
― mookieproof, Sunday, 28 November 2021 01:55 (two years ago) link
Not great so far!
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 28 November 2021 18:36 (two years ago) link
these early voters are some real sickos
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 29 November 2021 19:48 (two years ago) link
To vote for Clemens but not Bonds... I don't get it
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 29 November 2021 20:08 (two years ago) link
This one's something else:
https://www.delcotimes.com/2021/11/28/mccaffery-jimmy-rollins-ryan-howard-passed-hall-of-fame-eye-test/
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 22:47 (two years ago) link
true sicko
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 29 November 2021 22:50 (two years ago) link
this is one of the most hilarious pieces of baseball writing i've ever read
So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.
It is under that system, then, that Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are each one checked-ballot closer to Cooperstown than they were on Thanksgiving Eve. Though neither is projected to be named on the 75 percent of completed ballots necessary for induction, Cooperstown would be emptier without their presence.
They were cut-above superstars for a NL East dynasty, ultimate professionals, big-game performers, steroid-free competitors who not only generated statistics as alluring as many already in the Hall of Fame, but never brazenly broke a rule. In the case of Howard, he belonged in the Hall of Fame alone for running out a ground ball to end a playoff series with one of his Achilles tendons dragging six feet behind.
Those first two votes, then, were simple: Rollins? Check. Howard? Check.
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:39 (two years ago) link
listen, everyone. i'm the expert here. and since i am the expert, you can rely on me for my guts, as well as my objectivity. i've got it all. and that's why ryan howard is a hall of famer. next
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:41 (two years ago) link
My memory's awful--who's the guy who continued to pitch in a playoff game this year after hurting himself badly? He has to go in too under the Ryan Howard rule.
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 23:45 (two years ago) link
Jimmy Rollins would be a poor choice, though not a completely indefensible one viewed in a vacuum (i.e., ignoring all the better players who aren't in there).
― clemenza, Monday, 29 November 2021 23:47 (two years ago) link
i remember thinking of jimmy rollins as a great shortstop, not quite a hall of fame one. but the ryan howard pick is just hilarious. that was one of the worst contracts in baseball, until he retired. from 2010-2016, he was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR, with negative numbers in 4 of those 7 seasons. and even his early glory days were marred by his piss poor defense. it's a vote that makes no sense unless you declare your gut to be correct and then go with your rong gut
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:51 (two years ago) link
to be fair, ryan howard does have 200+ more homers than buster posey ;)
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, 29 November 2021 23:53 (two years ago) link
"NL East dynasty"
― ✖, Tuesday, 30 November 2021 01:17 (two years ago) link
Die nasty.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 30 November 2021 01:58 (two years ago) link
that article makes me pine for a point-by-point Fire Joe Morgan takedown. Get back to your roots, Michael Schur!
― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Tuesday, 30 November 2021 15:34 (two years ago) link
i know i already quoted this above, but this is outstanding
So writers it must be, for they are relied upon for their eyes, their guts, their contacts, their experiences, their objectivity. And ultimately, they get it right, even if it sometimes takes a while. Even the system itself has enough firewalls to ensure Derek Jeter makes it to Cooperstown, even if some rogue voter chooses not to include him on a ballot.
ah yes, the burden of the writer! the burden of having to come up with the perfect example to illustrate a writer's point. ultimately, writers get it right. like, say, derek jeter, first ballot hall of famer, the exact opposite of what the writer was talking about in the previous sentences
― skull. kneel. kneel. kneel. kneel. (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 30 November 2021 16:07 (two years ago) link
i feel dumber for having read that piece.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 30 November 2021 16:13 (two years ago) link
i have to respect it. half of being a modern sports columnist is homerism and the other half is trolling, and i can’t imagine the last time the delaware county times got this many hits on a story
too many multiple-sentence paragraphs tho
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 30 November 2021 18:55 (two years ago) link
jon heyman votes: bonds, andruw, jeff kent, rolen, schilling
clown ballot, bro
― mookieproof, Friday, 3 December 2021 20:12 (two years ago) link
Same nonsensical disconnect as that other guy, but in reverse: Bonds but no Clemens.
― clemenza, Friday, 3 December 2021 22:41 (two years ago) link
The Veterans Committee voted today: Minnie Miñoso, Buck O'Neill, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, and Bud Fowler are all going in.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-hall-of-fame-committee-election-results
Hodges seems pretty iffy to me: his WS win as a manager was his one successful season out of nine, and his 10 closest player comps via Similarity Score do not include another HOF'er. He was one of Roger Khan's boys of summer, though, and I guess that finally got him in. Oliva was great for eight years; Kaat was the opposite, good for 40, or however many he played.
― clemenza, Monday, 6 December 2021 00:47 (two years ago) link
Dick Allen fell a vote short.
― clemenza, Monday, 6 December 2021 00:48 (two years ago) link
Two years now. I called Dick missing again because he had the best case out of all of them for the Hall (maybe O’Neil) - so of course the lunatics in the vets committee would fuck it up.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 6 December 2021 02:35 (two years ago) link
O’Neill had by far the best case imo, but yeah Dick Allen was robbed
― my hands are always in my pockets or gesturing. (Karl Malone), Monday, 6 December 2021 03:00 (two years ago) link
If you compare Allen to Hodges, it's not really close. Both played first base (Allen played 3rd early on):
Hodges: .273/.359/.487, 120 OPS+, 43.9 bWARAllen: .292/.378/.534, 156 OPS+, 58.7 bWAR
Give Hodges credit for managing the '69 Mets. People used to knock Allen as a clubhouse problem, but that's really gotten a second look over the years--there seem to be very few holdouts on that point now (James unfortunately one of them).
Still not close.
― clemenza, Monday, 6 December 2021 03:35 (two years ago) link
Oliva and Kaat are borderline too, but they are alive, so that's nice.
― clemenza, Monday, 6 December 2021 03:43 (two years ago) link
Minoso absolutely deserving and I’m relieved he finally made it.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 6 December 2021 04:11 (two years ago) link