this could be The Year Minus One: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Dave Cameron on the Bryant decision

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-homer-prospect-minor-leagues-spring-training-cba-032515

bryant/baez/russell sent down

I think some of the talk is pre-mature at this point. Getting Maddon was a good move, he is a smart guy and a guy used to working with young players. Jon Lester is a good starter, but I don't know that he is maybe a win or two a year better than Shark, who they dealt to the A's. Offense could be pretty good, especially if Bryant turns into something big a the plate. They of course could roll out hot and win 90 games, but I think it more likely they end up around .500, which would still be a notable improvement over last years 73-89.

accd to the grantland NL central preview, ZiPS has the Cubs' 10th percentile performance at 14 games worse than their 90th percentile performance, the highest spread in the league

shld be one of the more fun teams to watch

I can't think it took much "forcing"

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/4/5/8351439/cubs-fans-peeing-in-cups-wrigley-field-bathroom-problems

http://s1.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Wrigley-Field-Resorts-to-Port-a-Potties-To-Fix-Bathroom-Lines-595x386.png
http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/wls/images/cms/637422_1280x720.jpg

NOT A METAPHOR

quite the pitchers' duel

see lance lynn, this is why jon lester never throws to 1st. bad things could happen

v. pretty breaking stuff from arietta

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CCGEsQGUoAAeW7h.mp4

theo brushed back the class a south bend mascot last night

bryant coming

there's a Star in the North over Sheffield Ave

oh shit bryant comin'

@baseball_ref
Kris Bryant will be the 1st player to start at 3B & hit 4th in his MLB debut in over 50 years.

@based_ball

compared to last year, in Triple-A Kris Bryant's walk rate, strikeout rate, and fielding percentage got worse, so now he's improved enough

Is there a thread for crazy-priced baseball cards on eBay? Holy shit are people acting like Kris Bryant is an all-time HoF great, and he hasn't even played a single goddamn game. Granted I don't know jack shit about baseball cards, but these are going for literally thousands of dollars.

theres a bb card thred somewhere. i also recall someone (tracer?) saying that given infinite resources he could fall down a bb card-collecting rabbit hole really easily

BP on the Call-Up:

PECOTA:

•10th percentile: .218/.299/.430
•50th percentile: .261/.351/.516
•90th percentile: .305/.403/.605

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26081

send him down

coulda been a great one

tbf, james shields has a pretty good changeup

hey, he went to a full count this time.

maybe having him debut vs Tyson Ross tomorrow wd've been ideal.

now wil myers is bunt singling at him hehe WELCOME TO THE BIGS, KRIS

hat trick lol

man, kris bryant suuuuucks

all kidding aside, this Soler>Rizzo>Bryant is going to be murderer's row, and once Russell and a Baez that doesn't strike out 40% of the time are added to the mix, uuuuuuugh

players who have fanned four times in their mlb debut:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC0Zx-lVIAAOsJi.png

Two of the pitches he swung at during the last at bat were waaaaaaaaaaay inside, too. (didn't see his first two PAs)

Kris Bryant is now tied with Tony Gwynn for career games with three strikeouts.

golden sombrero comin?

http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/cubs-fans-are-already-heckling-kris-bryant-with-you-su-1698544054

walked rizzo to get to him

2 BB today so far

He is waaay faster than I imagined.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYuzgSx2ldE&feature=youtu.be

now calling up addison russell ffs

naturally he strikes out at lot

As is tradition.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDMyJQiWIAAgAgo.jpg

I don't know about Bryant and Russell yet but Soler is awesome. He actually has some plate discipline!

I feel kind of bad for Javier Baez, he was terrible last season but he's young and it was one season but it feels like people have already forgotten/dismissed him.

also his sister died

russell is up way too early, right? i was expecting to see him around September, maybe earlier if the cubs are wild card contenders, but not this early! he only has a few hundred PA's above AA.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-kris-bryant-do-something-amazing

yeah i'm surprised about russell

btw bryant has already put up 0.5 or 0.6 war in five games and has fanned once in 20 plate appearances since his hat trick on friday

Russell is up early in part bc Cubs 2Bs so far have been awful, so they can't really lose much by trying him out.

sombrero for russell

len kasper's ears are still ringing from last night's replacements show

Russell wearing a Cubs-branded "Keep Calm and Chive On" shirt during pre game interview.

addison russell now leads the cubs with six doubles

well, that last inning and a half was an ordeal, but CARDS LOSE, incredibly

schwarber up, if only for a week

https://twitter.com/AugustF_MLB/status/611380263038226432

could be a weather event for tonight's game; as of now seeing Lester v Dodgers in series finale Thurs afternoon.

I was offered two free tickets for tonight but turned them down due to the likelihood of rain.

so what's the most decent food item at Wrigley?

Kuma before the game

I like the hot dogs that you can get with grilled onions.

sorry that was Denorfia w/ game-ending rock

I was there last night, sorry I didn't have an extra ticket for you Morbz.

really got in too late to go

sun is/was out!

I was worried about storms last night but it ended up being beautiful.

I scored the game and Maddon went fucking nuts with the quadruple switches.

You could tell it was the SABR section because there was a swath of empty seats where a pole was blocking the mound and first base, and the non-baseball convo was about Damon Runyon and the 1900-1916 presidential elections.

https://vine.co/v/e1hhKj9Ij5n

swept the Mets 7-0 in the season series. remember who to thank if you get a WC.

jon lester is now 1-for-67

Jake Arrieta is the 6th-best pitcher by WAR from the start of the 2014 season to now (two places ahead of Jon Lester): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

Kyle Schwarber coming back up, at least while Montero's on the DL - and he's going to (try to) catch

He's killing it.

Schwarber hit game-tying and game-winning HRs last night.

Still killing it, going to stay up in left field once Montero is back.

Still killing it. I'm already so scared of this team.

Rizzo tap dancing over the tarp and into the third row of seats might be my favourite catch of the year.

Rizzo runs and moves pretty well for a big guy.

pajama night

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/638199790816198656/photo/1

chris coghlan is the first cub with two triples and a homer in one game since 1950

facing Arrieta in the WC game will be no picnic

not that i actually expect it, but the Cubs are playing like they're gonna run the table and seize first place.

I am going to abide by my season-long vow of keeping my hopes low, but I am enjoying reading the sports section most mornings

That Addison Russell play to end the game today. 😘

Yep - beaut way to end game. Cub/Cards series are so fun to watch. Hate the Cards soooo much.

addison's defense has been amazing to watch the last few games.

my position on the hating cards/hating cubs spectrum has changed in the past week

i prefer the Cards as a Mets LCS opponent

The Cubs are looking scary good right now, Arrieta and Lester in a best of five is scary enough even before you get to talking about their offense.

Lester hasn't been very reliable this year. I think the lack of pitching depth is what will eventually sink them this year.

Though Maddon has been doing a good job of pulling the weaker starters early before they can get into too much trouble.

ou don't need much rotation depth in the PS; just 3 starters

Lester's overall numbers are in line with what he's done the past few years, and he's been better in the second half. Two great starting pitchers can be enough to win the WS, the Giants won last year with only one.

this game has been intense. i fear the cubs in the NLDS, and yet i desire it

it's basically exactly like lord of the rings

I am guardedly optimistic about the cubs this year, as opposed to every year since prior and alou blew the '03 postseason.

arrieta making a case for the cy again, 3 hit shutout with 11 ks

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/649682941992411137

Keep hearing that Lester has been just okay, not sure where that's coming from: 13th-best FIP in baseball and 7th best FIP of SPs heading to playoffs; 21st-best ERA/13th-best in playoffs. Dodgers certainly have a better 1-2, and Mets are arguable (Harvey beats Lester on ERA, but Lester beats Harvey on FIP), but the Cubs' 1-2 is comfortably in the top three.

And FWIW after the 1-2, if you're going by FIP leaderboards, Hendricks is .01 away from being best third SP in the playoffs (that honor belongs to Pirates' Happ with a 3.45).

His big flaw is holding runners, right? Do any of the advanced stats account for that? I assume WAR does.

don't think it does. fWAR definitely doesn't (fWAR is just strikeouts, walks, and HRs iirc).

90% bWAR doesn't take it into account either? well, at least not directly. but indirectly, bWAR probably factors in poor baserunner management because not being able to hold runners on first would ultimately lead to more runners in scoring position and more runs scored, right? i dunno, i'm making all this up.

That got a lot of press (rightfully so: he leads the league with 44 SBs allowed), and could contribute to his ERA being higher than his FIP (e.g., although his K/BB/HR numbers are good, when a runner does get on base they're more likely to score). But his ERA is still quite good, probably because it's hard to get on base against him.

xp agree with the mailman re: how likely each WAR is to take it into account

I sort of see an argument that this is uniquely problematic in the playoffs: the games are more important and so you're going all-out in a way you don't in the regular season. But if running all over him means certain doom, why weren't teams doing it all year long and giving him worse numbers?

Recent outings against STL/PIT, as teams that might have been playing with more of a playoff mindset: 7 IP and 2 ER (5 baserunners allowed, 0 SB and 0 CS), 6 IP and 4 ER (9 baserunners allowed, 1 SB and 2 CS), 9 IP and 1 ER (6 baserunners allowed, 1 SB and 1 CS), 7 IP and 1 ER (3 baserunners allowed, 1 SB and 0 CS).

yechhhh

http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2015/12/01/10177/cubs-new-images-of-wrigleys-brand-plaza-are-just-as-depressing-as-that-sounds/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb08VPbXIAAUSe8.jpg:small

if Clinton decides to play a Cubs fan again this year, they could be the fulcrum of our destiny