2015 NL cy young

So fangraphs has Grienke as the WAR leader with Arrietta 2nd and Kershaw 3rd... bb reference has Kershaw 1st and Grienke 3rd.

I think it's the other way around (at least has been the last while). When you're dealing with Greinke and Kershaw, there's probably a minor hitting component, too.

Coin toss. As much as I'd like to see Kershaw win another one, a sub-2.00 pitcher in Wrigley is hard to argue against. (And if ERA bothers you, his FIP is 2.44.)

(But I do think Greinke will win.)

probably comes down to their last starts. figure greinke would win today, but if arrieta dominates again and gets that 21st win, it'll be over imo.

From the Fangraphs link (when each leaves the game):

Greinke: 7 inherited runners, 1 scored
Arrieta: 8 inherited runners, 2 scored
Kershaw: 9 inherited runners, 6 scored

In such a close contest, that seems worth noting.

it's not fair, but i'm assuming the tiebreaker will be postseason performance, both for the players and their teams.

ballots are due after Game 162 (or 163, if nec)

DRA has CK and ZG literally tied, Jake a hairsbreadth behind

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/extras/dra_runs.php

Arrieta has seized the DRA lead

Besides the sexy W-L record that voters love, Arrieta is having arguably one of the best 20-start runs of any pitcher ever, and everyone's eyeballs seem focused on him now. A sub-1.00 second half ERA is ridiculous in any era.

For the longest time, it felt like the idea of Greinke winning the Cy had taken hold beyond letting anyone else in--even Kershaw was having a hard time getting noticed. But, a rough final start notwithstanding, I think Arrieta's going to win. He's almost dropped under 6.0 H/9 (how many starters have ever done that? Pedro, Ryan, probably a handful more), and his home ERA in Wrigley is under 2.00. Surely that's a first for 100+ innings.

More than I thought for under 6.0 (post-war): Ryan a bunch of times, Tiant, Pedro (twice), Sid Fernandez, Dave McNally, Jose Fernandez, Koufax, Nomo, Al Downing, Herb Score, Gibson, McDowell, Mike Scott, Mario Soto, Floyd Youmans. 15 guys.

Best 1-2-3 since when?

This was a good year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2009.shtml#NLcya

i think i would go with arrieta. kershaw had a bit of a homer problem in the first half of the season, and though WAR understands this to be a fluky occurrence, those homers did nonetheless leave the field during the games. he's been his usual incredible self in the second half, but the first half was a bit of a blip by his standards and when the margins of this close that matters.

greinke is probably an easy third for me out of these guys -- his strikeout totals don't quite stack up and he wasn't the same sort of workhorse either (by innings he threw the equivalent of one less full game than the other two).

arrieta's last ~20 or so starts put him just ahead of kershaw for me

tsk tsk, recency bias.

Ryan a bunch of times

yes -- mostly when he wasn't that great a pitcher, i think. it's about run prevention, not hit prevention.

Going by the actual 1-2-3 (rather than who should have been 1-2-3, which'd take more time to check), the last time the NL had a 1-2-3 all above 7.0 WAR was 1970: Gibson (8.9), Perry (7.6), Jenkins (7.3). 2011 was close. In terms of 1-2, this year doesn't match up with the two Johnson-Schilling years, Gooden-Tutor in '85, or Jenkins-Seaver in '71.

Haven't checked the American League yet.

(I'm using Baseball Reference. As of this morning, it's Greinke at 8.7, Arrieta 8.3, Kershaw 7.1.)

John Tutor was a teacher; I meant John Tudor.

Last time in the American League was 2003: Halladay (8.1), Loaiza (7.2), Pedro (8.0). (Could have happened in 2011.)

Greinke has pitched a whopping 8.1 innings fewer than Arrieta, and arguably done more for his team in those innings. The whole season counts.

8.1 innings is one whole start

yeah, not enough to dock him as "What a wimp!"

also Greinke has made 31 starts, Kershaw & Arrieta 32, so it figures.

I have no certainty about the right order, a 3-way tie might be OK with me. This morning's DRA order is Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta.

a 3-way tie might be OK with me.

same here, i think there's a strong case for all of them. but since it won't be a tie, you have to turn to other things, and arrieta's crazy good second half will probably put him over the top. it's true that the whole season counts, but half a season of O_O pitching is significant. maybe the analogy is to looking at the peak seasons of a player's career when considering HOF chances?

(i realize kershaw's second half was also O_O. but arrieta's was O_O, to use a technical term)

If this were three MVP guys playing the same position and with numbers close enough to require hair-splitting, and two of them played in Colorado and the other one in Shea, you'd automatically lean towards the Shea Stadium guy. Not as dramatic--Baseball Reference has Wrigley and Dodger Stadium a lot closer than they used to be--but I still instinctively lean towards the guy pitching half his games in Wrigley.

except the hairsplitting metrics have already factored that in.

jeez i forgot esteban loaiza existed

divorce yourself from ERA and other non-adjusted stats, clemenza, it's OK

i'm not saying greinke is a wimp, only that when the margin between the players is so small pitching one less start than the other two actually matters from a value perspective

personality-wise, greinke dominates this trio

http://i.imgur.com/z0aiKY5.gif

Neutral parks:

Greinke -- 1.88 ERA/0.883 WHIP/4.22 K/W
Kershaw -- 2.60 ERA/0.945 WHIP/6.00 K/W
Arrieta -- 1.68 ERA/0.898 WHIP/4.88 K/W

Pretty even between Greinke and Arrieta. I'd also like to know what their records are after a loss--in a really close contest, I'd give that a little weight.

i'm not saying greinke is a wimp, only that when the margin between the players is so small pitching one less start than the other two actually matters from a value perspective

― J0rdan S., Wednesday, September 30, 2015 1:46 PM (1 hour ago)

and as i mentioned in the OP, going less deep into games, asking more of his own bullpen; getting luckier with relievers not letting his runners score; and facing hitters for a 4th time less often, making his rate numbers (ERA, per-9 numbers) look better in comparison artificially. he's had a great season and would be a fine winner. but those are things to consider

i guess they're close enough where you find what you can to differentiate between the three. but normally, I'd agree 8.1 inning over the course of a 32-34 start, 200+ inning season is hardly worth noting.

yeah it's gonna be a total rorschach test for sure

yeah, this thread and lots of other places will be talking about who should win, but who will win is pretty obviously arrieta (imo)

http://i.imgur.com/md71zmU.gifv

You still have to pitch.

also Arrieta wd be a first-time winner (forgot ZG won with KC)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

^not ready to vote, there are more starts left...

maybe ck when the season ends next time

lol we can still use this thread for discush

just ribbin ya yankeefan

joe po http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/cy-young-jake-arrieta-zack-greinke-clayton-kershaw/

Why? Well, I could give you lots of reasons why I would vote for any of those guys, but in the end the decisive factor for me would be how well they’ve pitched on the road. Dodger Stadium is a better pitchers’ park than Wrigley Field (though Wrigley, unexpectedly, does lean toward pitchers). It has been a huge advantage for pitchers going back to Drysdale and Koufax, and this year, Greinke has a 1.48 ERA there and Kershaw (as usual) has been almost unhittable there.

What about on the road, though?

Arrieta: 12-1, 1.68 ERA, 4.9-to-1 strikeout to walk, 4 homers allowed
Greinke: 9-2, 1.88 ERA, 4.2-to-1 strikeout to walk, 6 homers allowed
Kerhsaw: 5-4, 2.60 ERA, 6-to-1 strikeout to walk, 9 homers allowed

Road numbers are not everything, of course. But Arrieta’s road ERA is the lowest for any regular starter in the last decade (Greinke’s is fourth lowest, so he’s no road slouch either). All year, Arrieta has gone into some of the toughest ballparks in baseball and pitched incredibly well. His one time in Dodger Stadium, he threw a shutout.

I applaud this column.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

8 arrieta
5 greinke
1 kershaw

even as a sorta arrieta supporter the lack of kershaw support seems off. should've been 6 arrieta 4 greinke 4 kershaw imo

i yabstained

Arietta tonight, Greinke tomorrow, Kershaw on Sunday; probably still up in the air.

does anyone have "strength of opponents" stats handy?

Arrieta has a shot at having a second half era lower than his second half whip (currently 0.80 era, 0.75 whip)

nine of arrieta's starts came against the cardinals and pirates, had a 1.45 era in 62 innings

one would expect kershaw/greinke's strength of opponents to be similar to each other and weaker than arrieta's

points off for me misspelling his name every goddamn time tho

i guess you'd want to look at the wRC+ of other teams in the division that they'd be facing the most.

Arrieta

Cardinals: 97
Pirates: 99
Brewers: 87
Reds: 90
Average: 93.25

Kershaw + Greinke

Giants: 106
Diamondbacks: 96
Rockies: 85
Padres: 91
Average: 94.5

not the most rigorous analysis of course, because maybe kershaw faced the giants more often than greinke (or vice versa), but it all seems to be about a wash.

there's probably a better way to do it with b-ref but i'm not as familiar with their tools and i have a hangover so

Damon: Who’s your NL Cy Young?

Klaw: I’d have Kershaw first, but I don’t think Greinke or Arrieta are a ‘wrong’ choice here.

Ed: Aren’t Arrieta’s and Greinke’s ERAs within the range of error at this point? I keep hearing Greinke’s ERA as his trump card in the Cy Young race. Seems to be splitting hairs at this point.

Klaw: Yes, although Arrieta has had some absolute joke opponents of late too – that Brewers game where they started a AAA lineup comes to mind. Again, I don’t think either guy is clearly better.

His second-half ERA (0.75) is the lowest...ever. Gibson struggled along at 1.19 in '68.

(Arrieta, I mean--forgot this was a general Cy Young thread.)

Looking forward to next year's "Most Similar by Ages" update on Arrieta's Baseball Reference page:

24. John Briggs (993)
25. Bud Norris (990)
26. Jason Hammel (978)
27. Micah Owings (986)
28. Rodrigo Lopez (979)
29. Cy Young/Pedro Martinez/Sandy Koufax/Bob Gibson/etc.

Honestly--what happened? He made a big leap last year, but how do you go from a terrible pitcher from 24-26--literally terrible--to historically great at 29? Even with someone like Randy Johnson, you can look at his career box and see that it was just a case of getting some control; you can still see the outline of his later dominance in his first few years.

Avg opponents runs (from bb ref)
Arrieta: 4.20
Kershaw: 4.22
Greinke: 4.24

soo, not exactly a huge difference, but not sure how thoroughly those numbers are calculated.

"He made a big leap last year, but how do you go from a terrible pitcher from 24-26--literally terrible--to historically great at 29?"

It's not totally unusual. I think the big thing is that usually the pitcher gains control of a certain pitch that is nearly unhittable and then they can combine it with experience on how to setup hitters. Arrieta has definitely taken it to another level.

Mike Scott and Dave Stewart are a couple of guys that came to mind for seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the best pitchers in the game. (Obviously Scott's pitch he learned was considered controversial by some.) Schilling had been pretty inconsistent and at age 29-30 pretty much became dominant.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottmi03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewada01.shtml

the cubs changed his mechanics and positioning on the mound also

That's what I was looking for, a tangible explanation. Scott's a good comparison, and the explanation is that he developed what was, for a year or two anyway, an all-but-unhittable split-finger. I don't know if Stewart's a good comparison. With him, I think it was more that he ended up in the right place at the right time; he was a good pitcher and a workhorse, but in the four years he won 20, his ERA was in the 3.00s three times, and his WHIPs were in the 1.200-1.300 range. He was never dominant. Schilling was great as a 25-year-old, and he struck out 300 at 30 and 300 again at 31; he just couldn't stay healthy until he got to Arizona.

an all-but-unhittable spitter

I was thinking about Stewart as A's got him off waivers, he was literally on baseball's garbage pile. Not many times you get a guy off waivers that ends up anchoring your rotation like he did for that club back then.

I do see your comparison in broad outline--reclamation project, emerges at age 30 as the ace of a mini-dynasty. It's more a question of magnitude. Stewart wasn't all that different a pitcher before and after the A's got him:

1978-85 (Dodgers/Rangers/Phillies): 3.96 ERA, 1.356 WHIP, 1.55 K/BB
1987-90 (his four 20-win seasons): 3.20 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB

('86 was split between the Phillies and A's, and I'm too lazy at the moment to manually add in those partial seasons.)

Obviously a better pitcher, and credit to the A's for seeing what other teams missed. But Arrieta's turnaround is much, much more dramatic.

2010-12 (Orioles): 5.33 ERA, 1.451 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB
2014-15 (Cubs): 2.08 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, 3.53 K/BB

(Same split-season in the middle of that.)

Arrieta's 2014-15 K/BB ratio should read 4.53.

Someone asked if Scherzer has had the best season that will not get a single point in the Cy voting.

he'll probably get a few. Cy ballot has 5 spots, and by fWAR he's in 3rd (leapfrogging Greinke last night) and 4th by bWAR.

but yeah, crazy to have a season with 2 no-hitters (and a 1-hitter and a 2-hitter), strong performances otherwise, and not even be in the conversation

his previous start he had a no hitter going into the eighth inning.