how has the Closer mania damaged baseball? (Hardball Times)

1990 Reds - Myers, Dibble, Charlton
1996 Yanks - Wetteland, Rivera, Nelson
2002 Angels - Percival, KRod (playoff phenom), Donnelly, Weber

Dibble is a bit of a clown, but he was a mean machine that year. You have to like the ripped jersey on the pitching arm. Fear the curly mullet! Randy Myers is probably my favorite closer of all time, he was a favorite on both the Reds and later with the Cubs and I was really bummed when he left town. Charlton had a long career and was a mainstay in Seattle with Lou in the 90s, but he lost a bunch of velocity after his first arm surgery.

I cracked up checking out Bob Walk and Zane Smith. In college we always joked about Zane Smith looking like one of the Darryls of the Larry and my brother Darryl and my other brother Darryl from the show Newhart. Bob Walk had a king daddy mullet working that season.

"Eric Gagne hasn't thrown a pitch all year. The Dodgers have survived to the tune of 17-11, and while the bullpen blew one ninth-inning save, the Dodgers came back to win that game.

Armando Benitez tore his hamstring last week. Since they lost him, the Giants have gone 5-2, with the bullpen blowing one game in his absence and the team winning anyway.

The Cardinals' Jason Isringhausen left last Tuesday's game with a strained oblique. Including that game, which his teammates closed out, the Cardinals have gone 6-3 without him, and their bullpen hasn't blown any leads.

Guillermo Mota went on the disabled list Sunday, but he hadn't been available for a week prior to that. Since his last outing, the team is 4-3, and the bullpen hasn't blown any games.

The closer role has been mythologized as much as any element of modern baseball, but while the pitchers in the role are accomplished, the lesson we relearn every year is that it's being an effective pitcher that makes you a good closer, not any special qualities over and above that. The experiences of the Dodgers, Giants, Cards and Marlins should serve as a lesson to any team tempted to overreact to the loss of a saves leader. Closers, more than any players on a roster, can be replaced."

The thing is, these are going to be small sample sizes, as these are numbers based on the brief (or prolonged) absence of one player seen by most as A Key Component to a team's success.

Funny thing is, Earl's examples upthread (supposedly exemplary of where this micro-managed bullpen approach works) are actually supporting the DOWN WITH UNDUE RELIANCE ON THE CLOSER mentality! Yeah, those guys were used in set roles, in specific innings. BUT, w/ the guys those bullpens had, they could have been used in a more fluid fashion. I think the only one of those groups that came close to breaking the LaRussian mold was the Reds.

One exception to this closer debunking is the Cubs of the past year and a half. Put a good closer on that team and they would have made the playoffs last year by a half dozen games and right now would be at least playing .500 ball. The Red Sox have also been skating by this year with their closer being horrible this year.

This the key phrase in this arguement is "low impact of losing your closer if you have other good pitchers". The Cubs bullpen is crap front to back, but at least if they had a decent closer they might win the ones where they have the lead in the 9th.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/authors/streder/

Thanks to Doc linking that site a bunch last year, I got hooked and read it all the time.

I've defended the closer a bunch on this site, but I do think teams should try and use their best reliever when the game is most on the line in the latter innings i.e. tying or go ahead runs on board and not have it just given start the 9th.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/authors/streder/

Thanks to Doc linking that site a bunch last year, I got hooked and read it all the time.

I've defended the closer a bunch on this site, but I do think teams should try and use their best reliever when the game is most on the line in the latter innings i.e. tying or go ahead runs on board and not have it just given to start the 9th.

Another explanation for the particular games that the writer points out were won by relievers other than closers is the sense I have of pretty good pitching performances so far this year. There have been a rash of recent blowouts, but the pitching has been tight. There was some NYTimes graphic recently of last April compared to this April in terms of team ERAs, team HRs, etc. and it's like four or five runs difference in each case.

I mentioned this to a guy I know and he was like "Bonds isn't playing"

But, yeah, the Cubs' problem isn't so much LaTroy's "struggles" as it is the perceived struggles of the REST of the bullpen (or, more importantly, Duster's inability to accurately judge the talent he's got @ his disposal). If you are going to give LH das boot, the LAST F*CKING GUY you want in there is Ryan Dempster. Maybe Borowski's the answer, though his numbers in 2003 (aside from the save numbers) look quite similar to LaTroy's from last year.

The problem isn't the "closer" when the closer's a good pitcher - the problem with the "closer" is when a replaceable stiff (HI DUSTIN HERMANSON) gets tagged as a "closer" because he pitched late in games for about a month once upon a time and thereby has "experience". Or, worse yet, see Danny Graves, a "veteran closer" that has no business pitching in a game w/ a close lead, regardless of the inning. (Haha - maybe also see Keith Foulke?)

LaRussa's micro-managing horsesense worked because A) Eckersley was ungodly and B) his starters (Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, Mike Moore, etc.) went deep into games. (I wonder if the lack of scouting technology available "back then" had something to do w/ the A's success, too - looking @ their pen's numbers, I see non-Eck guys w/ unspectacular stats aside from the nice & small ERAs.)

The Reds and Angels were similar, except that they had more than 1 ungodly guy to go to, so starters didn't have to go as long. (I'm totally pulling this stuff out of my ass, BTW.) Also, the Reds & Angels starters were pretty good! (cf. Jose Rijo & Tom Brownining; Jarrod Washburn & Ramon Ortiz & KEVIN APPIER!)

I will say that for whatever reason, watching LaTroy pitch 9th innings makes me second guess the stathead conventional wisdom re: saves. For whatever reason, the dude's best pitching came when he was used over and over in the same role, as the setup guy in the 8th with the Twins & Cubs or (somewhat paradoxically) the guy that got the really tough outs with the game on the line before the 9th.

Hawkins did really well last year until the Cubs made him the closer. Hawkins, Borowski and Farnsworth got most of the blame for last years bullpen problems, but it wasn't like there was anyone else getting the job done. The thing that pissed me off is the Cubs really didn't even make an ATTEMPT to try and fix the problem in the off season.

This was debunked in the Sun-Times yesterday; last year Hawkins pitched 2 1/3 innings against the Phillies, gave up one earned run and registered two saves. So huh.

BP EXTRA
I've wanted to research this for a while. Who has the MLB record for
cannibalized wins, game where the pitcher blew the save and ended up
credited with a win?
Since 1972, this is what I show:
NAME,			       W
Rich Gossage,		      27
Rollie Fingers, 	      26
John Franco,		      23
Roberto Hernandez,	      21
Kent Tekulve,		      21
Rick Aguilera,		      20
Lee Smith,		      20
Dave Righetti,		      19
Jeff Reardon,		      18
John Hiller,		      18
Bruce Sutter,		      18
Sparky Lyle,		      18
That makes sense: A long career means many chances to vulture wins. How 
about
the one-year leaders...
YEAR, NAME,			     W
1976, Rollie Fingers,		     6
2002, Billy Koch,		     5
1990, Rob Dibble,		     5
1983, Rich Gossage,		     5
1987, Don Robinson,		     5
1984, Luis Sanchez,		     5
1974, Sparky Lyle,		     5
1986, Greg Harris,		     5
1986, Dave Righetti,		     5
--Keith Woolner

I think we can excuse guys like Gossage, Hiller, and Fingers, who regularly used to pitch 2-3 innings per appearance. There were probably a few instances where they came into the game in the seventh with one out and two men on, gave up a hit or a sac fly to tie the game, and then pitched 2-3 more innings while their team came back and won.

Was Tekulve even a "closer", in the modern sense of the word? I thought he was mainly a setup guy.

I'm a bit surprised that the single season marks are held almost exclusively by 70's and 80's guys (wasn't Billy Hoch like 9-2 in 2002?). I guess managers are so locked into pitching their closers only one inning at a time, that if they give up the tying run then they normally don't get a chance to remain in the game long enough to pick up the win later on.

from Goldman in The Pinstriped Bible:

Closer Neftali Feliz, who hasn’t allowed a hit this postseason, is either secretly hurt, has disappeared into the witness protection program, or Washington is utterly incapable of realizing that you can use your best reliever in situations other than having a one, two, or three run lead in the ninth inning. Most managers act as if when Moses came down from the mountain, there were eleven commandments, not 10, and the last of them was, “On peril of thy soul, thou shalt not use thy closer in a non-save situation.”

Chew on this: Feliz has appeared in three of 13 postseason games for the Rangers. Over a full season, that’s a pace for 37 games. As I’ve said elsewhere, the use of closers has become farcical, with most of the game’s ace relievers practically wearing signs that say, “Break glass in case of never.” It wasn’t always like this. From 1937 to 1999, 162 pitchers saved at least 15 games in a season, made no starts, and pitched 100 or more innings. The last two do to it were Derek Lowe and Danny Graves. In many seasons, multiple relievers met those criteria; 11 did in 1977 alone, including Goose Gossage, then with the Pirates, and Sparky Lyle, who got the Cy Young award for his troubles. It was the fifth of six times that Lyle would pitch over 100 innings in a season.

Stuff you already knew: the dubious wisdom of spending lots of money on a closer.

http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/01/13/ryan.madson.prince.fielder/index.html?sct=mlb_t12_a1

I know Kimbrell's a closer, and nobody takes closer stats too seriously anymore. But it's pretty astounding what he's done through his first 213 innings, which is sometimes enough to land a starter in the yearly top 10.

IP: 213.0
H: 115 (4.9/9)
K: 361 (15.3/9)
ERA: 1.35
WAR: 9.3

On the other hand...Nothing we don't already know, but the source may help convince some holdouts (holdouts = many GMs).

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/23511912/dennis-eckersley-on-closers-job-not-as-tough-as-you-think

tbh it might be easier than non-closing, as they aren't up and down warming up all night and usually enter the game with no one on base

I was gonna post that NYT story as 'Eck Admits Save a Junk Stat'

Goose vs. Kimbrel:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40429/goose-gossages-amazing-1975-season

Short version: when Gossage was doing some old-ballplayers-never-die complaining a few weeks ago, he had a point.

Nice appreciation of Mariano by Neyer:

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/9/25/4742082/mariano-rivera-hall-fame-case-relief-pitchers-criteria

The revolving door in chart form:

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2014/0308/mlb_e_closerschart01jr_697x721.jpg&w=580&h=600

Terry Francona used Cody Allen, his closer, after a rain delay in the 5th tonight.

During the delay, Francona decided to go with Allen, who retired Miguel Montero on a fly ball and pitched a scoreless sixth.

Francona had a simple explanation for the unorthodox strategy.

"I'd rather lose with our best in a situation when the game's leveraged," he said. "I would have been upset if we lost late, but if we had given them some runs earlier I would have been more upset."

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_all_important_closer/

"Anyway, to my great surprise...The proposition that to win a World Championship you need a great closer, and that a great closer is more important than a great player at the other positions, appears to be true. According to this study, anyway, it’s true."

Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel have a Similarity Score of 965.7 right now--that's incredibly high. As a point of comparison, Freeman and Goldschmidt, who I'm always posting about, are at 922 (and they're no longer each other's #1 comp).

Jansen: 820 IP, 2.52 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 0.962 WHIP, 425 saves, 20.7 WAR
Kimbrel: 767 IP, 2.38 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 0.984 WHIP, 423 saves, 24.0 WAR

I don't think either will make the HOF, but if one does, it'd be hard to keep the other out. There would appear to be a tiny edge for Kimbrel, but I'd go with Jansen if it's just one of them. 1) Much better postseason record (twice as many innings, half Kimbrel's ERA); 2) more consistent; he's never had a wipeout season, Kimbrel's had three; 3) Kimbrel's so disliked, for reasons I've either forgotten or never knew (is it something he did or said at one point? who can keep track anymore).

I got to see Kenley pitch the other day, unexpectedly, and unlike basically every time I’ve watched him on TV he’s been great. I don’t have any thoughts on Kimbrel apart from his windup being weird.

And whether Billy Wagner gets in next year will also matter--if he's not elected, I would think that would hurt their chances a lot...I was thinking it might be that, his annoying vulture-like contortions.

For today and (probably) today-only, there's actually someone who sits between them on the career saves list: John Franco, with 424.

I think Kimbrel and Jansen will need to join Hoffman and Rivera in the 500 club to have a shot. I doubt Wagner will get there.

(by "get there" i mean cooperstown)

I always used to group Kimbrel/Jensen/Chapman together--the most eye-popping rate stats ever for closers before Hader--but above and beyond his personal baggage, Chapman's fallen 100 saves behind them. Also just suspended for two games:

https://apnews.com/article/pirates-aroldis-chapman-suspended-e4f02b154551c50965156d80ff90a648

He’s already served that suspension, in the first two games of the Pittsburgh-Boston series I just attended. He pitched in the third one, I booed him. He pitched last night too and walked three straight guys with no outs.

Other than Wagner/Jansen/Kimbrel, it will be a long time before another closer even has a shot. Edwin Diaz is the next active guy on the list with 209 saves.

(xost) Funny! I honestly don't think I've ever booed a player in person. I'd have to give that some thought. I did defiantly cheer Alomar a few times when he returned to Toronto as everyone around me booed him. (This was well before the charges that made him a pariah two years ago--his big offenses at the time were, of course, the spitting, and also sulking his way out of Toronto.)

I didn’t think I had it in me but I blame the environment

Other than Wagner/Jansen/Kimbrel, it will be a long time before another closer even has a shot. Edwin Diaz is the next active guy on the list with 209 saves.

This can only help them, in the same way that it helped Lee Smith. He wasn't viewed as HOF-worthy, but once enough time passes and nobody better is coming down the pipelines, the voters looked at his career more favourably in retrospect.

holy cow...didn't realize rivera had 652 saves! just a freakishly great career.

only thing about Lee Smith was he was a veteran's committee inductee, and i guess one could argue he held the career saves record for awhile. the other closers who are in the Hall have a kind of folk hero narrative, which Wagner has developed maybe even more in retirement, or they were pioneers like Sutter, Gossage, Fingers. Rivera had everything, plus just sheer statistical dominance beyond mere saves. i really do think w/closers these days, they need to be lights out the entire time for HOF consideration. i guess a career fade is permitted, but not mid-career meltdowns.

We're looking at you, Josh Hader.

Hoffman had 61 saves when he started his age 28 season and Rivera had 48, whereas Kimbrel had 186 saves at that point and Jansen had 142.

crazy