hall of fame, next vote...

hadn't checked in on the HOF tracker in a minute, and not much new to report but:

a whopping 15 ballots are in -- Beltre is at 100%, Mauer is at 80%, Utley is at 60%.

I've been checking in every few days...Really small sample, but I wonder if there's an outside chance of 100% for Beltre? There's zero rationale for not voting for him, but then that's been true of dozens of players who weren't unanimous. I'm still not sure how Mariano dodged that. The writers' vote does get more informed over time, though.

i think Mariano being probably twice as valuable as any other closer in the history of the game, plus his fairly unassailable clutch credentials, really put him into the stratosphere. he's sort of the Gretzky of RPs. no one else was close.

i think some fool will withhold a vote for Beltre. probably more than one.

Mariano deserved it, no argument, it was more the timing I found puzzling. A few years after the writers seem to conclude that closers shouldn't get anywhere near a Cy Young, they make a closer the first unanimous HOF pick.

i think it really probably was just his breathtaking consistency and dominance at that position, i guess. plus two things can be true, closers deserve HOF enshrinement (the bar should be vv high, and Rivera cleared that bar to such an unprecedented degree), but on a season-by-season basis, it's hard to argue they ever deserve Cy Young over a starting pitcher, let alone MVP over a batter. I do think the one year where Rivera probably should have beaten the Cy winner in the vote (2005, vs Bartolo), is also a year where the winner should actually have been Santana.

Not to fixate on this one narrow point, but 3/440 writers didn't vote for Jr. in 2016; I'm assuming that one, two, or all of three of those writers voted for Rivera three years later. If I'm right, would love to hear their rationale.

i personally would probably not care to

the only thing I can imagine is a voter who believes that a first round HOF should be the very best at that specific position, literally the #1 player. So Mariano is the greatest RP of all time, whereas Ken Griffey Jr was merely one of the top ___?

Possible, but looking around online--there are a couple of pieces and a Reddit thread asking the same question--I think they're might be a simpler explanation: strategic voting. That was right in the middle of the logjam:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2016.shtml

Steroids aside, the top 20 on the list, right down to Edmonds, are all HOF caliber, and I think voters were still a little unclear if the PED players were viable candidates. By 2019, things have cleared up a little:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2019.shtml

Fewer obvious candidates, PED players more clearly not viable. So maybe those three voters felt they had room enough not to leave Rivera off to make room for someone else.

No logjam this year, so leaving off Beltre for that reason would be quite unnecessary.

there/their/they're--will work on that.

They jumped to 27 ballots.

http://www.bbhoftracker.com/

I'd say Beltre has a chance at 100%. The precedent of no-unanimity no longer applies, so that excuse can't be used, and there's lots of room on the ballot, so no need to strategize.

And Utley's support is a lot shakier than Mauer's thus far.

(Which was always a terrible excuse: "I'm still really angry that Christy Mathewson wasn't elected unanimously, so I'm passing on Greg Maddux.")

I'm not surprised Mauer has more support than Utley, but I am surprised it's that wide a gap (thus far.) I'm maybe more surprised Jimmy Rollins has picked up two votes, he at best feels like a Hall of *almost* very good type player.

Gonna be real annoyed* when scheff doesnt get in

*not really but also yeah kinda really bc scheff is ill

Beltre will not be 100%

Beltre will not be 100%

Yep Bill Ballou didn't vote.for him

Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre waves to the crowd in Seattle as he leaves his final game, in 2018.
Beltre will get plenty of support, and maybe even make it on this year’s first ballot. There are voters who are passionate about Beltre’s qualifications, and those qualifications are impressive.

The last five Hall ballots cast by this voter, however, have all only included the elite of the elite, which is what Cooperstown is supposed to be all about. Only eight players have received this vote — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Rivera, Ramirez and Rodriguez.

Beltre was good, but not as good as anyone in that group.

😵‍💫

Outstanding

Curious how he figures that Halladay, Ortiz, and Ramirez had more career value than Beltre, Ortiz especially. I don't like reducing things to WAR, but Beltre's ahead of Ortiz in oWAR alone by 15 games, before you even get to defense. They all belong, but that's an odd formulation.

Forget it jack wtc

-etc

Forget it, Jake, it's Cooperstown.

(Just to flesh that out.)

I mean everyone he voted for I would certainly vote for but beltre absolutely raises the bar even within that small, highly qualified group.

Tony Massarotti also declined to vote for Beltre, who's 74/76 with almost 20% of the ballots in on the tracker.

Mauer is over 80% and Utley is below 50%, so things are looking good for Joe to come close at the very least. The remainder of the first-timers are toast, except for David Wright, who might get to 5%.

Things are trending pretty decently for Beltran, for the future ballots at least. Helton lost three votes vs two picked up, which is a little odd, but you figure he'll get in. Everything else is pretty status quo, lots of guys who gained a couple or lost a couple and are probably sticking around for another go.

weird thing, both guys who didn't vote for Beltre also *only* voted for Manny and A-Rod.

I noticed the second non-Beltre voter...How stupid is that? "I don't agree with freezing out PED players, so I'll punish Adrian Beltre and Todd Helton (and also not vote for Gary Sheffield) to make that clear. And get lots of attention for myself along the way."

Was yesterday the deadline? The Tracker is up to 93 ballots (26%):

Beltre - 98%
Mauer - 83%
Helton - 82%
Wagner - 79%
---------------
Sheffield - 73%
Beltran - 65%
Andruw - 64%

I'd be very surprised to see four guys go in--assume Wagner will drop.

2% and under: Bautista, Bartolo, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holiday, Tori Hunter, V-Mart, Reyes, James Shields.

It looks like we're at 100 ballots now, if we include the seven anonymous/unverified. Mauer is outperforming at least my own expectations.

Mine too. If he holds over 80%, that'll be the clearest signal yet how much more peak value has come to be valued. Career value will continue to be the safer path for the foreseeable future, I'd say, but the gap seems to be narrowing. (A theory that is completely negated by Utley's mediocre showing thus far...)

I figure Mauer being a catcher gives him some extra credit, plus there are a lot of intangible and narrative factors that come into play with him that Utley doesn't have. I do think Utley deserves it on peak value though.

Bautista got his first vote. Big surprise: Richard Griffin, a Toronto guy. I'm glad--I didn't want to see him shut out.

also gave Wagner a vote.

Who continues to hold at 80%--a little surprised.

Joey Bats had more HOF caliber seasons than some HOFers. other than those seasons he didn't do enough, but he def deserves to get some honorary votes.

That's the difference between Bautista and Joe Carter, who exceeded Bautista in the traditional HR/RBI/BA metrics. Carter really didn't have a single HOF-caliber season, and had many that were just barely above replacement level; Bautista had at least two HOF seasons, and arguably a third.

I think he definitely had three, and a fourth if we count his 92 game season (over a full season I think he comes out close to 7.0 that year.)

I don't quite yet want to be all, "I've seen enough. Joe Mauer is elected with etc etc" but it's looking more and more like he'll get in this year.

I think he's in. That old thing about analytic voters declaring early and old-school guys holding off--because they didn't want to explain themselves on PEDs or traditional stats--I don't think that applies so much anymore.

maybe more surprising to me than Mauer doing this well (83% now) is he's doing a bit better than Helton (who has a net gain of zero votes with over 35% of the ballots revealed.)

I am actually bummed about Sheffield not making it. Even recognizing how he was absolutely a detriment in the field, as a hitter he was just about as dangerous as anyone during his peak. He just put up some absolutely sick statistics. I know there are some PED issues swirling around him, but I feel like it's a gray area in his case. I think what actually is hurting him is the nomadic path of his career, not being defined by any one team at all. And yet, everywhere he went he had one or two or more absolutely all time seasons. San Diego, Florida, L.A., Atlanta, NY. Just such a force.

Whats also hurting him is his relationship to the media

Your opening sentence made me think they released results today. He's not out of it yet--just shy of 75%.

Just looking at everything, he needed to pick up 70-something votes in order to make it. He's picked up 10 so far with a bit over 40% of the vote in. I hope I'm pleasantly shocked by an unprecedented late rally!

Basically knock 5-10% off of whatever the score is for the hidden ballots they always sink everything. It wouldnt surprise me if helton missed by single digits

i hope David Wright sticks around awhile, despite the brief career he's eminently more qualified than the likes of Vizquel, K-Rod, and probably Wagner tbh. he's a Mauer type in that respect, just an absolute monster at his position. But catchers have more allowance for a brief peak. his fellow Met Jose Reyes is getting zero support but he's probably just a step below Rollins.

Make of this as you will:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zB4Jm08/glove.jpg

Jones is at 71%, Hunter at 4.7%. Did Hunter win all those GG on reputation? Seems like a wider gap than it maybe should be.

I think Hunter was good in the field, but not really vastly superior to others. if you look at the metrics, Jones was an all-time great. I think where they were actually closer in terms of career value was at the plate, Jones had bigger numbers in a couple of huge years but I think Hunter wasn't far off in his all around offensive game.

two who are also pretty close are Rollins and Reyes. i don't see Rollins getting in, he's nowhere near, though 29 votes vs zero for Reyes is probably a bit unfair to the latter, who was really quite the player.

Just realized this is tomorrow. All I know for sure: Beltre is in, DeSantis is out...Agree with all that about Jones/Hunter (although I'm trusting the defensive metrics on blind faith). I think a 60/40 split, or 65/35 split, would be more reasonable than 71/5.