It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

A far better sportswriter than I (first post):

http://ussmariner.com/?p=2860#comments

pictures:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/28128023@N00/sets/729755/

A fascinating breakdown of what Felix threw, from a Twins blogger:

http://www.sethspeaks.net/

Assuming he's pitching every 5th day, he has the following teams to look forward to:
Angels
Twins
Rangers (in Arlington)
Yankees
Angels
Oakland
etc.

Does anybody care about Zach Duke anymore?

bring it on.

All i'm saying is that Felix has his work cut out of him facing some of the AL's most frustrating (OAK) and powerful (NYY) lineups rather than some mid-pack AL Central also-rans.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4319

i)i assume you mean "take those first SIX starts away and he goes from great to good".

ii)i just think it's silly to say stuff like that, or "he didn't look THAT good against the tigers -- sure he retired 14 of 16 batters but BEFORE that he looked pretty shaky in his first major league inning ever!"

i mean, why so cynical?

this is an xpost.

Much of Duke's ado was made after his first 2 starts:

First 2 starts:
ERA - 1.93
WHIP - 0.93
K/BB - 17:2 (8.50)
K/9 - 10.93

Starts 3-7
ERA - 1.38
WHIP - 1.32
K/BB - 18:10 (4.50)
K/9 - 4.96

There is an unmistakable drop-off in performance with the exception of ERA (which we know is not the best indicator of performance).

ii)i just think it's silly to say stuff like that, or "he didn't look THAT good against the tigers -- sure he retired 14 of 16 batters but BEFORE that he looked pretty shaky in his first major league inning ever!"

I'm talking about sample size; I'd like to see how Hernandez performs against teams in contention rather than a couple mediocre teams before people declare how "great" he is.

The announcement came yesterday that Felix will get one more start against an also-ran (never ran?), pitching Monday vs. Kansas City instead of Sunday against the Angels. So, another chance to build confidence.

To wit: Zachariah allowed 12 baserunners (10 H, 2 BB) in 7.1 IP in his last start (against the Dodgers - Duke, come on), and 4 runs. He also allowed 12 baserunners (8 H, 4 BB) against the Rockies on July 21st, but managed to allow zippo in the run column. (Thank you Rockies!) There's that 1.36 WHIP.

His 3rd worst start was his first one (which gygax include in Zack's OMG peroid) against the Milwaukee Cibulas - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 R, and one of two HRs he's allowed so far.

July 7th: shuts down Philly (@ PNC) - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB. July 16th: shuts down Cubs in Wrigley - 8 IP, 6 H, 2 BB. July 27th - only pitches 2 innings against Florida before rain delays force him out. August 1st, against the Bravos: 8.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 1 run. Only 2 Ks, tho. And only 4 Ks against the Cubs.

Still, overall: 3 to 1 K / BB ratio, 2 HR in 46.2 IP, 6.75 K / 9 IP, a .254 BAA (comparable to guys like D-Train & J-Schmidt), and on pace for about 50 BB in 200 IP. Not too shabby at all, especially for a 22-year-old, & trying to draw an arbitrary line between his 2nd and 3rd starts to establish some trend is just plain wacky. (It's not likely to continue, but there's nothing he's done to this point that says it can't.)

And there's no doubt in my mind that Felix would make him look like chump change.

I was thinking that ILB is becoming like ILM in the sense that on ILM some average record leaks and people get caught up in the slsk-search/ysi hype and "minds are blown" and 10.0s are given only to find out in due time that it's just an okay record. Occasionally it turns out to be a good record but calmer heads may prevail.

BTW, Felix = LeBron James + Larry Bird + Wayne Gretzky

David Wright = Emmitt Smith + Michael Jordan + Butterball

Zach Duke, Oliver Perez and Todd Van Poppel.

http://www.rootsweb.com/~pahuntin/photos/boring-jas-fam.jpg

SF's stud in waiting is Matt(hew) Cain:

23 Starts 9W - 5L
4.64 ERA (ahem, "hitter-friendly PCL" that doesn't seem to affect the A's prospects)
1.35 WHIP (see above)
10.69 K/9
2.23 K/BB

I just feel like Hernandez would really benefit from five or six years' seasoning in the minors. I don't know why that's so hard to grasp!

is there a desperate need to believe that what we're watching RIGHT NOW is and ALWAYS WILL BE the absolute zenith of the ballplayer's greatness?

right now there's probably equal chances felix ends up prime pedro, aj burnett, or flames out completely. but he is, by almost all accounts, the most exciting pitching prospect to come around in a long time. and as far as i'm concerned to repeatedly deny yrself the chance to appreciate what he's accomplished and is capable of accomplishing in the name of some kind of bullshit levelheaded clarity of mind is a failing on yr part, not some triumph of reason.

I used to be a highly-touted prospect too :(

Hey tiger, all i've said is "wait and see".

I mean I read way too much about Jeff Francis a few years ago and just today he gets roughed up for 9 runs in 3 innings (sure, in Colorado... but 9 runs on only 3 XBHs, none of which left the yard).

Sorry, fellow Jays fans; tonight I root for Felix.

i'm rooting for a 1-0 10th inning J's victory.

oh. just turned on the game - J's already scored.

Chris Mosch, BP:

The rare implosion by Hernandez resulted in not only the most runs he had allowed in a single inning this season, but also the most he had surrendered in a single game all year. The eight total earned runs Hernandez gave up tied a career worst for the right-hander and his ERA jumped from a league-leading 2.07 to 2.34.

Not only did Hernandez’s worst outing of the season drop the Mariners three games behind the Royals for a wild card slot with just five remaining, it also loosened his grasp on the Cy Young Award race, which he appeared to have all but wrapped up a month ago. After last night’s start, Corey Kluber holds a 2.39-to-2.60 FIP advantage while pitching just three fewer innings. Last night’s blowup by Hernandez also narrowed the gap in ERA between the two, despite Hernandez pitching in front of a much better defense and to a superior receiver behind the dish. Cleveland’s ace will have a final chance to sway the voters Saturday night against the Rays.

If I were voting for any award that came down to two closely matched players, and one of them was having a potentially fluke year and the other had a well established level of excellence, I'd always vote for the established player. But at this point, Kluber has probably pulled away enough that I'd feel okay voting for him.

klubes has more fWAR than kershaw (by 0.1)

hughes and lester have more than felix

what a disappointing second half

ERA *really* sucks as an "authoritative" stat.

Hernandez has a chance to take the AL ERA title Sunday. A scoring decision Saturday charged Hernandez with an error in Tuesday's 10-2 loss at Toronto, a play originally called a hit. The change removed four earned runs from Hernandez's record, dropping his ERA from 2.34 to 2.18 going into his final start of the regular season. Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, who made his final scheduled start Wednesday, leads the AL at 2.17.

Watch him throw a no hitter today!

It has its limitations, like any stat. Here, I think for the opposite reason of what I'm guessing is behind your post (that it's not right that an seemingly arbitrary ERA title may get Felix the Cy Young): how that one lousy start obscured Felix's great run earlier in the year, and after being thought of as the best pitcher in the league for most of the season, his ERA crosses paths with Kluber's and now he's no longer the favourite. (I.e., if he was the best pitcher before that one start, isn't he still the best pitcher after it? It's one start.)

i really dont give a shit about the Cy Young

"like any stat"

you really just... nm

You're always saying you don't care about stuff you clearly care about, else you wouldn't post so often about them--awards and the HOF at the top of the list.

And here I thought you guys would be complaining about the "narrative" events of the past week and how they will impact the voting:

-- Felix the clear CY winner, with Kluber right behind him
-- Felix blows up against Toronto, Seattle tanks their playoff chances, Kluber dominates in his final start and is looking like the frontrunner for the award
-- Oakland continues sucking, game 162 somehow ends up mattering for Seattle, Felix gets a shot at redemption for his team and a chance to upstage Kluber again

So Felix went from pariah who choked away the CY, to ace pitcher making the most important start of his career, all in less than a week.

He was removed from the game as soon as the A's won.

Aahhh - that's what happened.

Close to a coin flip--for every point you make on one side, there's one on the other. I looked at the game logs and totaled quality starts using the same definition as Felix's streak: 7+ innings, 2 or fewer runs (earned or otherwise).

Kluber: 19/34
Felix: 22/34

Kluber wins on WAR and FIP, Felix on ERA and WHIP. Innings, they're separated by one out, K/BB and run support are also almost even. Kluber had the better September, for sure (after a poor start to start the month), and seeing as both teams were chasing a wild-card spot, I do think that matters. I'd probably vote for Felix for the reason I gave earlier: all things being close to equal, I'd rather vote for the established great player.

Runs allowed depend on too many factors, so I like to look at Game Scores to get an idea of a pitcher's dominance.

Turns out that's more or less a wash too -- Kluber has more dominant starts (GSc > 80) but also more bad ones (GSc < 50), whereas Felix was more consistently good.

is this Cy Young going to com down to fielding? because that would be awesome!

three words for you: arm wrestling contest

many cy youngs have come down to fielding bcz era is a team stat

which is why i vote for kluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubezzzzzzzzzzzzz

i would vote both Cys by FIP this year since Hamels is not in the NL top 5

4th youngest to 2000 K.

Feller, Seaver, and Clemens the others? (Or maybe Blyleven.)

Only one of the four correct.

tied with orel for 70th all-time

at 29

Ryan surely

wow

Houston - Bottom of 1st	SCORE
Felix Hernandez pitching for Seattle	SEA	HOU
Jose Altuve	Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop	0	0
Preston Tucker	Ball, Ball, Ball, Ball, Tucker walked, Altuve to second	0	0
George Springer	Ball, Ball, Springer doubled to right, Altuve scored, Tucker to third	0	1
Evan Gattis	Gattis grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Tucker and Springer scored, Gattis safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hernández	0	3
Colby Rasmus	Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Ball, Ball, Rasmus walked	0	3
Carlos Correa	Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike (looking), Correa struck out looking	0	3
Luis Valbuena	Strike (swinging), Valbuena homered to right center, Gattis and Rasmus scored	0	6
Chris Carter	Strike (looking), Strike (looking), Carter singled to left	0	6
Jason Castro	Ball, Strike (foul), Castro homered to left, Carter scored	0	8
Jose Altuve	Beimel relieved Hernández, Strike (looking), Altuve grounded out to shortstop	0	8
Preston Tucker	Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Tucker singled to center	0	8
George Springer	Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Springer struck out swinging	0	8

The hell happened.

His bad stretch this year guaranteed it wouldn't be one of his better seasons, but he was great last night, and he'll end up with one of those filling-in-the-scenery type years that adds to his bulk numbers and strengthens his HOF résumé. Also making progress towards 300 wins, which, if it ever happens, will make him the latest guy to win 300 after it was obvious there's never be another 300-game winner again.

I was surprised to see that he has 17 wins -- the second highest total of his career -- and has a good chance to win 20 for the first time. I wonder if anyone will write that Felix finally learned how to win (for a mediocre Seattle team that won't come close to making the playoffs) rather than only caring about his personal stats.

highly doubt felix will approach 300

felix is an interesting case. on one hand, he's been a poster child for the sabermetric movement almost since he broke into the league. on the other hand, a lot of his value comes from the old fashioned sense of being so durable and an innings-eater; his per-inning numbers are not really that special

For the HOF, I imagine Felix will be fine with 225-250 wins. By the time he comes up for induction (2030 or so), pitcher wins will be a quaint relic.

I think he has a decent chance, though. He'll have 143-145 at the end of his age-29 season:

Clemens -- 152
Maddux -- 150
Seaver -- 146
Sutton -- 139
Carlton - 133
Glavine -- 124
Ryan -- 122

(No point in even listing Johnson, who didn't have his first really good season until he was 29.) I know that covers different eras, and that at least a couple of those guys go back to 4-man rotations. But he's in line with Maddux and Glavine, and much closer to the former than the latter. If he can bounce back to last year's form, he has a shot; if this year is the beginning of slow decline, no.

Or let's say bounce back halfway; last year was good enough to be something of a blip.

Felix is going to the bullpen. Servais informed him before the game.

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) August 10, 2018

I had no idea he'd been declining so badly

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exile-for-king-felix/

at least he got that funny strikeout of beltre the other day (before beltre went deep on him) : /

figured this day was coming but it sucks that it happens the one year the Mariners are actually kinda good

this sorta happened to Verlander too but he bounced back, maybe there's hope for the ol' King. he's only 32!

Gets a spot start tonight because Paxton is on the DL

Should have been traded at the end of the 2016 season. He’s been worthless this last couple years.

felix hernandez, 2016-2019

434 IP, 77 GS
26-31, 4.79 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP
7.44 K/9 (19.1 K%), 3.27 BB/9 (8.4 BB%)

so what you're saying is that he'd be the no. 1 starter for the 2019 orioles

Since his debut in 2005, Félix Hernández has made more starts at T-Mobile Park than any other pitcher at any single ballpark.

On Thursday, he will make his final start of the season at T-Mobile Park.

More: https://t.co/91j2vZb9lf pic.twitter.com/Lq4dX4IV5u

— MarinersPR (@MarinersPR) September 23, 2019

Seattle's first glimpse of King Félix. 👑#HappyFélixDay #TBT pic.twitter.com/fsxOEAAFUo

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 26, 2019

is he officially retiring – or is everyone just assuming he's done?

Likely done with the Mariners. He has said that he doesn’t want to retire.

An appropriate send-off from the mariners offense.

Since Felix’s 2010 season, there’s only been 5 pitchers who pitched 240 innings in a single season. Wainwright, Cueto, Price, Shields, Verlander. Except Verlander, it seems like they’ve all come to regret it.

I think Cueto and Price in 2014 will be the lasts.

Royalty. Loyalty. 👑 pic.twitter.com/gF39tVU5Bz

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 27, 2019

the bulb in my living room lamp went out. i was going to replace it, but it has a dimmer switch and it looks like i don’t have any dimmer bulbs. i’ve tried screwing in a standard bulb but it popped after just a couple days. i figure i’ll hold off until i can go buy the right bulb

— Jon Bois (@jon_bois) July 3, 2020

Check out the replies.

:D

He’s got a strong dog game
https://i.postimg.cc/Jz7LHxDR/IMG-2906.jpg