currently active players with a shot at the hall of fame

His skills (speed, defense) tend to age well,

o_0 this is 100% untrue

speed and defense begin to decline the moment players (assuming they aren't literally teenagers) enter the majors, with some exceptions if old dogs can learn new tricks to make up for their declining legs, but that isn't common

not that i think rollins is a candidate to drop off completely, i guess. apparently his career defensive value mostly has to do with his fielding percentage rather than range (negative UZR since 02) or DP ability (negative UZR since 02). but his offense is going to fall off enough that that won't really matter when he's trying to pad his resume.

His defense and base-running have been pretty decent this year, his BB% numbers are up.

i'm not 100% sure whether rollins would deserve much more than hanging around the ballot for a few years before dropping off, but i suspect that if he falls shy of 3k hits he won't last long.

xp it's still totally overzealous to not predict decline for a 36 year old shortstop. and his mediocre range can still decline to just plain terrible.

xxxxxxp strikeouts matter more to fWAR than bWAR, and indeed glavine's fWAR is much lower. i'd put more weight in his bWAR, unless his braves/mets defenses were really so good to justify that big a discrepancy in his FIP and ERA.

I can't remember the exact reasoning, but I thought that outfield defense declines sharply with age (e.g. guys become too slow to play CF and have to switch positions or become an embarrassment like Bernie Williams was). Even so, weren't players like Rickey and Kenny Lofton the prototypes for staying productive at OF into their forties thanks to hitting and speed?

OTOH, slow power hitters can become liabilities overnight because they aren't athletic enough to compensate for a decline in speed and mobility in the field, and a wrist injury or slight slowing of bat speed can completely sap their power.

It's a moot point anyway with Rollins, he's still stealing bases at age 35 so he's still fast. BBRef rates him 1.0 dWAR for '14 (although he's not the defender he was in his 20's). His power has declined, but otherwise his consistency during his 30's suggests he can hang on for a few more years and be productive.

he's kind of entering his old man biggio years imo

here's a list of WAR compiled by players 36 and over dating back to 1950. mostly negative DEF scores, mostly negative BsR, and even the best baserunners only added a bit over 2 wins from it. the defensive positives are among the best defenders in history -- ozzie, omar, morgan, fisk (who's up there primarily bc he played such a freakish amount of games at catcher), wtf was with bob boone? lofton's trajectory does seem like the best case for rollins, but lofton provided much better offense. the majority of the value on that list comes from offense.

WAR already accounts for this.

Already factored in, I know--was just trying to give some context to stats that weren't as close as they sometimes superficially seemed. (Not sure how Trammell's and Rollins' parks compare; I have some vague memory of old Tiger Stadium being a hitter's park.)

In '89 he hit .243/.314/.334, "good" for 2.3 oWAR.

That does seem rather generous. The one thing I remember about '89, though, is that it was a solid pitcher's year, especially in the AL. (Kevin Mitchell had a huge season in the NL.) The three guys perceived to be the main MVP candidates that year--I remember this well, because one was from Toronto--were Yount, Sierra, and George Bell. Their slash stats were very ordinary for MVP candidates:

Yount -- .318/.384/.511
Sierra -- .306/.347/.543
Bell -- .297/.330/.458

I'd think it would take Jimmy Rollins to play and start at least another five full seasons to age 40 to get to 3000 hits. Omar Vizquel was a starter through age 40. I think Rollins to get 3000 hits is unlikely but possible. Even if he is still productive enough to continue to finish out with the Phillies, I think it would depend on if they develop a shortstop in the minors and if Rollins could be open to playing some 2b or something like that. Vizquel also played some 2b in his last years and was a bit of a utility infielder. I don't know enough about him as a player to know Rollins might accept such a role to keep playing. Barry Larkin still could hit and play shortstop ok in his late 30s, but he lost a lot of games in that time to injuries. Cincy even gave him a pretty big contract late in his career, I don't know if the Phils would do the same for Rollins and whether salary issues might fit into such a situation.

The Favorite Toy gives him a 22% chance at 3,000, and truthfully, that seems overly generous to me. His averages the past four years: .268 (2011), .250 (2012), .252 (2013), .243 (2014). He's almost 700 hits away, hasn't had more than 168 since his MVP season, and has only one guaranteed year with the Phillies left.

Did any of you guys happen to look at what the "average shortstop" was doing in 1989? Trammel's 85 OPS+ was like 9th in the entire league. It's easy to be like oh well that WAR #s inflated until you look and realize that those numbers were still probably miles and miles better than what a replacement would put up. Trammel also had six years where he was OPS+ 130+. Rollins has exactly zero.

Rollins is POS not HOF

Trammell's peak years were better than Rollins', no question. It's his value in his subpar seasons (which was half of his career) that I'm not sure about.

He might have been better than a replacement level shortstop in 1989, which is important if I'm building a team in 1989. But how does it support his HOF case? He had a bad season, but the quality of shortstop talent in the AL just happened to bottom out, so suddenly it's a season worthy of an all-time great player?

"But how does it support his HOF case?"

Because he played and accumulated value (would point out that in most of these down years Trammel's def was still pretty strong according to the stats.) Anyway even setting aside career WAR, Trammel's 7YR peak and JAWS case are very good.

i like rollins, but no way is he going into the HOF. his peak wasn't nearly peaky enough, and it was too short.

i'm having fun looking for players who might have a shot at 3000 in the future (besides the obv ALTUVE!!!!) and BR makes it easy by listing current age, tho they only go to 100

2. Alex Rodriguez (20, 38) 2939
3. Ichiro Suzuki (14, 40) 2844
4. Adrian Beltre (17, 35) 2604
5. Manny Ramirez (19, 42) 2574
6. Albert Pujols (14, 34) 2519

manny probably won't make it! a-rod and pujols are virtual locks and i'm guessing ichiro really wants it and some team is going to keep humoring him until he crawls in there. i'd love to see beltre make it which seems totally possible right now.

12. Jimmy Rollins (15, 35) 2306
13. Miguel Cabrera (12, 31) 2186

barring disaster cabrera should make it. he looks v young next to everyone around him. rollins is also younger than everyone else down to #18 but i still don't think he gets in.

19. Carl Crawford (13, 32) 1868
22. Robinson Cano (10, 31) 1836
24. Jose Reyes (12, 31) 1772
25. David Wright (11, 31) 1702

crawford is the second youngest in the top 20 but will not make it. cano has to be the most likely under 2000 to make it, and his hit totals haven't declined at all. totally possible reyes can get there if he somehow becomes very healthy. that won't happen to wright! ha! mets!

29. Adrian Gonzalez (11, 32) 1635
32. Nick Markakis (9, 30) 1547

markakis is a very dark horse but he's the youngest out of anyone with over 1500 hits, and many of his BR comps have aged well. he's extremely healthy with the exception of one freak injury and his hit totals have been consistent. there was also a point where it looked like johnny damon would sneak in.

43. Hanley Ramirez (10, 30) 1403
44. Prince Fielder (10, 30) 1389
46. Dustin Pedroia (9, 30) 1371
54. Ryan Zimmerman (10, 29) 1326
59. Ryan Braun (8, 30) 1297
63. Billy Butler (8, 28) 1273
64. Melky Cabrera (10, 29) 1262

it is possible that one person here ends up with 3,000 hits and it won't be billy butler

79. Delmon Young (9, 28) 1115

i had no idea about this

90. Justin Upton (8, 26) 1039

who knew jupton was only 26? he's averaged 150 hits his last 3 years so i don't think it'll happen

looking beyond that on FG so i'm probably missing someone:
McCutchen 28/986
Andrus 26/959
Starlin 25/846
Freeman 25/656
Heyward 25/644
ALTUVE! 25/630
Stanton 25/619
Trout 23/572

some contenders for sure, but the only one we can really feel certain about is altuve

ofc in 20 years the BBWAA will be filled with sabermetric robots who won't care about a figure as glorious as 3000 hits but let's keep dreaming while we're still young and beautiful

i don't think ichiro's gonna make it (which of course shouldn't matter in the long run)

kinda love nick markakis, but yeah i don't see it

You know I love to talk about this stuff...A-Rod's a lock if he has a job, but that's a big if. Pujols should cruise along at this new, mortal-like level for a few more years, so yes. Beltre, Cabrera, and Cano, yes. Crawford had a good jump up till the age of 25, but he just doesn't play enough anymore--no chance. The Favorite Toy doesn't count David Wright out--12% chance. Obviously he'd have to bounce back to his 2009-10 levels, with a few All-Star years mixed in. McCutchen calculates to 17%. It's almost like his talents are too broad-based to make a run at 3,000--he's too good a player, in an odd sort of way. I think the Trout fellow will make it, even though he's only 24% by the Favorite Toy (Crawford was 28% after his age-25 season). Which, by the way, estimates career length very conservatively. It gives Trout 10 more years. Does anyone expect Mike Trout to retire at the age of 34?

2) Projected seasons remaining for the player. This is calculated by the formula (24 - .6(age)). Any player still playing regularly has a minimum of 1.5 seasons remaining, regardless of age.

seems like this part could use a bit of work

lincecum still has a 22% chance of 3000 strikeouts!!

(xpost) I'd be interested in reading James's thoughts on that now (the formula was developed in the late '70s). I think he'd probably say "No, you still have to use a conservative calculation," and would then proceed to explain why in a way that made sense. (E.g., that anything less conservative would produce an expected number of 3,000 hit guys way out of line with reality.) Intuitively, though, with all the money that's thrown at players these days, I would think some adjustment for extending expected career length would be in order.

Checking the odds for 3000 strike outs, CC Sabathia still has 32% chance per James' projection tool. Which is better than Peavy's 20%.

Hernandez would have an insane 15% chance of 4000. Kershaw, 24%.

had no idea peaves had so many strikeouts

I checked in other pitchers for 3000 K.

Strasburg: 27%
Bumgarner: 37%
Sale: 29%
Lester: 26%
Darvish: 16%
Scherzer: 37%

Price: 33%
Cueto: 13%
Greinke: 35%
Hamels: 44% =o
Wainwright: 4% :(
Burnett: 27%
Gio: 15%
Verlander: 40%

i feel like Hamels is a far better pitcher than people give him credit for.

really surprised FG never gave him a 5.0 + WAR season. His best season came in 2011 with 4.6.

BR is much nicer to him, two 6.6 seasons (2014, 2011) an one 5.4 (2010).

and then two 4.6 seasons – which is the max FG gives him.

A real longshot: Adrian Gonzalez. Only one mention on this thread (in a list). He's 32, coming off a good year where he'll get some MVP support.

--will probably end up with 350-400 HR
--currently at .292/.364/.499
--a couple of league titles: hits in 2011, RBI last year
--6 MVP finishes so far (highest: 4th in 2010)
--38.2 WAR right now; may end up around 60, but would have to keep playing well
--considered one of the best defensive first baseman, no?

The thing that hurts him is that 7 of his 9 full-time years have been in San Diego and L.A. His one year in Boston was excellent. For his career, he's .283/.360/.462 at home, .301/.368/.535 on the road. Even the second set of numbers would leave him on the fence for a first baseman, but there'd be a reasonable case. If you were to add those to some hitter-friendly home numbers, I think you'd be hearing a lot about his HOF chances.

If nothing else, he should linger on the ballot for a few years.

From his comp list, Hrbek and Will Clark work well; Palmeiro's on there too, and though I don't doubt that makes sense in terms of adjusted rate stats, Palmeiro piled up numbers in a way the other three didn't.

A better comp would be Fred McGriff. They have nearly the same slash stats and OPS+, a few top ten MVP finishes, similar reputations as v. good but not spectacular HR/RBI men for winning clubs. McGriff is a fringe candidate though. AGon would have to average about 25 HR/90 RBI until age 40 just to pull even with McGriff on counting stats.

In terms of raw numbers, he's good too. They're not on each other's BR comp list because of era-adjustment, presumably--McGriff's comps are better. But yeah, if McGriff's at 12% and dropping, Gonzalez doesn't have a chance.

If Adrian Gonzalez gets to around 63 WAR (which is possible) then yeah I'd back him to go in.

idk adrian's a good player (and was great for a brief spell) but i don't think he gets in and if he did he probably wouldn't deserve it based on how he'll likely perform moving forward.

For some reason I thought he was at 43 WAR, but nope, he is at 34 WAR and has less than 10 years to go (most probably). I doubt he reaches the necessary production indeed, unless he finds a surge.

If Adrian Gonzalez gets to around 63 WAR (which is possible) then yeah I'd back him to go in.

― Van Horn Street, Sunday, November 2, 2014 4:20 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

for any reason other than "63 WAR"?

63 is a beautiful number.

Actually it's that 63 WAR would put in the top 20 all time for 1st baseman. It's not the end all of his value, but it's a strong enough indication for me that he would deserve a hall of fame, no matter how he gets there (defense, power, average, a combination of all). GG and MVP are not something a trust enough at the moment.

it just seems like a p low dividing line to me, and i'm just growing more and more suspicious of using WAR as a dividing line anyway

MVP voting trends are meaningful. In a single year there might be Shannon Stewart-style anomalies in the MVP voting, but if someone consistently finished in the top 10 during their prime, it's almost certain they were a great player. (yeah, there are rare exceptions like Ryan Howard)

Kershaw is now ninth on the career list of Cy Young shares at 3.34; another full share (which could theoretically happen next year) would move him into fourth place, behind Clemens, Johnson, and Maddux (and just ahead of Pedro). He should end up there within two or three seasons, but catching Clemens (7.66) and Johnson (6.50) will be tough. He's also up to 92 on James's HOF monitor, just shy of the 100 that would make him a "likely HOFer." (I'm not sure if that was ever adjusted during the PED era--if not, it's predictive value is less than it would have been when it was devised in the mid-'80s; pitchers, I think, are short-changed.)

Trout, meanwhile, at the age of 22, is 67th on the MVP-share list at 2.39; he's already passed Ripken, Koufax, Yaz, Winfield, and many other HOFers. And he's up to 65 on the HOF monitor.

i wanna say kershaw is already a probable but i would've said that about johan (12th in CY shares) before 2009 too

he was older when he started to be good but pitchers can drop off or get injured for life at any moment

Sure--or Gooden after the '88 season, maybe even '90; the red flags were there, but I think the general feeling was that he'd continue to pitch well enough to eventually end up in the HOF. Verlander, Sabathia, you never know.

One other thing about Trout. The HOF Monitor originally had a 70-100 score as the gray area; most people in that range didn't make it, but some did. (As standards go up and inclusion gets tougher, I'm not sure you'll see any players in that range get inducted anytime soon, if ever again.) So, as originally devised, Trout is 5 points shy of the gray area. At age 22.

Chase Utley is above a good bunch of 2B HOF in JAWS: Alomar, Biggio, Doerr, Gordon, Lazzeri. Still slighty under the HOF average.

I think he was on track for a protracted Blyleven/Raines debate before this year, but unless he comes back, I'd say no chance now (i.e., in terms of how the vote will actually go).

he's actively diminishing his case with every game played

he still has those two deserved MVPs he didn't win.