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If you're sleeping on the Golden State Warriors, it's time to wake up.
This isn't your typical Golden State team -- the one trying to score like mad without caring whether the other team does the same. As fellow ESPN.com scribe Ethan Sherwood Strauss pointed out last week, the Warriors haven't ranked better than 10th in defensive rating in more than 30 years. If you think it's absolutely nuts that Stephen Curry could be the face of a defensive-minded team, I understand your skepticism.
But this is a new era in Golden State. For the first time in almost half a century, the Warriors are stifling opponents on that end of the floor. Just four teams so far have held opponents to fewer points per possession than the Warriors. Yes, the Golden State Warriors.
In reality, the Warriors have probably played the best ball of any team in the early going. Look, get past the 5-3 record. Context matters here. They've opened the season facing a brutal schedule with five of their eight games on the road. Two of their losses have come as visitors against the Los Angeles Clippers (the second night of a back-to-back) and the San Antonio Spurs (Warriors lost by two). Their third loss came against the Memphis Grizzlies, also on the second night of a back-to-back.
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And through it all, the Warriors are the only team that resides on top of the NBA's sacred soil, ranking top 5 in both points per possession and points per possession allowed. As suffocating as the Indiana Pacers' defense has been, Indiana has scored at just a league-average rate, according to NBA.com data. And, before you fall head over heels for that 8-0 record, let's keep in mind the Pacers have yet to play against an above-.500 team. The collective record of their opponents thus far is a ghastly 24-40, with only one game against a team with a non-losing record, the 3-3 Chicago Bulls.
Teams can only play the cards they're dealt, so we should still applaud the Pacers for capitalizing on their cupcake schedule. But if you're asking me who's the best team in the NBA at this moment, I'm not picking the team with the best record; I'm siding with the beasts by the Bay. Indiana, the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State are the only teams to outscore opponents by at least 10 points per 100 possessions, but the Warriors have faced a much tougher schedule.
Plus, in all likelihood, we haven't seen the peak version of this team. The offense hasn't even taken off yet. Golden State coach Mark Jackson has been conservative with Curry's playing time so far as the shooting star has played just 30.3 minutes per game this season dealing with a gimpy ankle. Furthermore, the Warriors have played this well largely without Harrison Barnes, whose lingering foot issues have limited him to just 80 minutes this season.
But the defense has been sensational in the early going. Golden State has held its opponents under 100 points in all but two games, both of which came on the second night of back-to-backs. (Back-to-backs tend to be killer on defenses more so than offenses.) As of now, just the Spurs and Pacers have been better on that end of the floor, according to NBA.com data.
But is their nasty defense a small-sample-size fluke? Probably not. This is what happens when you pair an elite perimeter stopper in Andre Iguodala with a dominant basket protector in Andrew Bogut. Yes, the 3-point defense has been mostly smoke-and-mirrors. Opponents are shooting just 27 percent from deep against the Warriors in the early going, which some might attribute to Iguodala's arrival.
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Noah Graham/Getty ImagesStephen Curry is the catalyst to the Warriors' offense. Can he stay healthy a second straight season?
But, after studying 3-point field goal percentage trends of the past 10 seasons, you'll find that there's absolutely no correlation between what we see in the first 10 games and the rest of the season. It's essentially random. A team that starts out holding opponents to 27 percent from deep is just as likely to be average as a team that holds opponents to 40 percent in the early going. (For the stat geeks out there, the correlation coefficient is -0.0047).
With this in mind, don't expect Warriors opponents to continue clanking from downtown. But the paint defense? That's another story. I also looked at whether we can trust early-season opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area where the Warriors have held opponents to just 55.3 percent so far, which is eighth-best in the league. And that has much more staying power. Statistically, what you see now is mostly what you'll get.
So, even though the 3-point defense might be an aberration, the team's basket protection with Bogut manning the paint is legit. And that's far more important. According to SportVU data, opponents have shot 45.2 percent when Bogut defends a shot at the rim, which is one of the better rates among regular paint defenders (Dwight Howard, for example, allows 49.4 percent so far). A healthy Bogut means a healthy defense. Throw Iguodala into the mix and the Warriors have integrated the necessary defensive stalwarts to compensate for their heavy 3-point attack.
Don't be fooled by their 5-3 record, folks. Account for their harsh schedule and the Warriors have been just as good as anyone this season. When fully healthy, the Warriors are deadly on both ends of the floor. And if Curry and Barnes round into shape, chances are Golden State's best is yet to come.
― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 14 November 2013 20:48 (ten years ago) link