jalen rose looks really bad in this game
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 22:54 (ten years ago) link
we should've polled how many games wade will sit out this year, today he'll miss his 11th of miami's 21 total games played.
― Clay, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:04 (ten years ago) link
Monta Ellis PER now below 20, seems to be regressing back to the mean
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 13:54 (9 hours ago) Permalink
that's his highest PER in 6 years. 6th highest PER among starting SGs this year.
Wes Matthews' PER is lower, which say a lot about how bad PER is, really:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=per&c1comp=gt&c1val=18&c2stat=gs&c2comp=gt&c2val=15&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=per
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:06 (ten years ago) link
his usage rate is 17%, dude
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:09 (ten years ago) link
Wow why does Hollinger hate Wes Matthews so much
Why did he rig the system against Wes
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:10 (ten years ago) link
free wes matthews
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:11 (ten years ago) link
so inefficient of him
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:11 (ten years ago) link
important poll please vote
how will lebron james announce his new contract in 2014?
― le goon (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:11 (ten years ago) link
so its misnamed who cares especially if you just call it per, just think of it as per
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:12 (ten years ago) link
omg you still don't get it this is like when you were saying afflalo was the best player ever
(notwithstanding the fact that afflalo actually is having an amazing year this year)
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:13 (ten years ago) link
Who's Afflacko
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:13 (ten years ago) link
ben afflacko how u like them apples
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:14 (ten years ago) link
― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:13 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
uh IIRC you agreed with me in the end
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:15 (ten years ago) link
it pained you but you did begrudgingly admit it. Even busted out the dreaded Matt Armstrong otm.
if you make a high % of your shots/get a lot of assists/etc it's pretty obvious why using a high percentage of your team's possessions would be a good thing; if you're gonna be kyle korver and never miss but take like 3 shots a game and do nothing else it's p obvious why this is not ideal
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:15 (ten years ago) link
wes has been shooting the lights out but he basically only scores. dude's averaging less than two assists a game. prob explains the PER thing.
― le goon (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:16 (ten years ago) link
i do not recall the specifics of the debate but i will disagree with myself if i said something contradicting the main point of my last several posts
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:16 (ten years ago) link
I just did a search for "matt armstrong otm" and k3v posts make up the first three
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:17 (ten years ago) link
guys guys never mind that important breaking news im not sure what a shooting shirt is but @mcten: LAL players will have Twitter handles on back of their shooting shirts
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:18 (ten years ago) link
― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:15 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Affalo is doing the same fucking shit he did at the same or slightly better rates and his PER is about twice as high because his usage is about twice as high. If you were gonna pick an example of how PER is a dumb stat he's a good one. It overcompensates for high usage.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:23 (ten years ago) link
...
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:24 (ten years ago) link
matt there are gonna be warm ups or something with twitter handles on them this very night and instead for the millionth time youre going to pretend you dont know why usage might be worth considering when evaluating players, your priorities are all out of wack
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:27 (ten years ago) link
the exact same (good) production at a higher usage rate is not more efficient, it's just more useful.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:27 (ten years ago) link
matt is the king of comparing players to hakeem olajuwon based on their per 36 min data so i don't think we're gonna find a meeting place here
― le goon (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:28 (ten years ago) link
basketball is not baseball where everyone gets their turn at bat, it's a sport where you want to maximize the expected value of every possession and you can actually control some things, there's no rule that says your worst players need looks. if you're a player who can shoot a 65% ts%, it is to your team's benefit if you use up as many possessions as possible, because if you're not taking thos shots/otherwise using those possessions, someone else (of lesser value) is
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:29 (ten years ago) link
just forget about the word efficient and everything will make sense, he shouldnt have used effeinct in the name for per
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:30 (ten years ago) link
― lag∞n, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:27 PM (20 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
usage is totally worth considering, which is why it was obvious Afflalo was really efficient player because of how well he played with low usage!
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:30 (ten years ago) link
god matt fine think of PER as like a per-possession amount of value created, you're just caviling over the definition of "efficiency" because you think it implies a personal denominator rather than one in a team context, which is what the stat is used for
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:32 (ten years ago) link
― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:32 PM (51 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
his ORTG was higher in 10-11.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:34 (ten years ago) link
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, December 8, 2013 6:30 PM (1 minute ago)
right and the point is per-shot "efficiency" does not tell the whole story about how valuable a player is or else we'd just use TS% or something, being able to create offense and do so ~~~efficiently~~~ is important
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:34 (ten years ago) link
i don't really buy O/DRTG too much, it's such a lineup dependent stat
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:35 (ten years ago) link
Impressive use of the word cavil. Nice
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:35 (ten years ago) link
now obv there are huge problems with PER, for one thing it essentially ignores defense that isn't steals/blocks, and is probably based on old data since hollinger hasn't updated it in a while i don't think, but it's a useful go-to stat for the things that do show up in the box score
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:37 (ten years ago) link
overall nice argument by kev there excellent defense of efficiency in per
― lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:37 (ten years ago) link
cavil is a cool word that i try to use a lot thx
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:39 (ten years ago) link
― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:34 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
but he's not doing it any more efficiently than he did in Denver. He created offense a ton in Denver too; his style of play hasn't changed, just his usage rate. The turnovers have doubled (and the turnover rate has increased), his ppp is lower, his TS% is lower, but somehow he's twice as good.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:39 (ten years ago) link
What Hollinger did is he realized that in the real world it's harder to be efficient when your usage goes up, so he adjusted things to compensate for it. But he overcompensated.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:42 (ten years ago) link
his assist%, rebound%, and free throw rates are all career highs, the turnovers have barely changed, and his ts% is right about at his career high with denver. and yes, the usage is way up. the picture those numbers paint is obvious, which is that instead of being a nice role player, he's a first option now, and is doing really well at it
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:46 (ten years ago) link
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, December 8, 2013 6:42 PM (3 minutes ago)
i've heard people say things like this but i've never actually seen the evidence for it. but again as i've been saying, it's clearly BETTER -- all else being equal -- to be a 58% ts% player with a usage of 30 than it is to be someone like tyson chandler, who has something like a 70% ts% but like a 14% usage
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:49 (ten years ago) link
― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:46 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
rebound% isn't a career high, FTR is third highest.
― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:50 (ten years ago) link
i mean it's just LESS IMPORTANT to maintain excellent efficiency as your usage continues to climb, every high value shot you take continues to provide marginal value over what an average teammate would have provided with that same shot
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:52 (ten years ago) link
hm what was that word again CAVILING
clearly this is the year he's put everything together, with career highs or near-career highs in 3pt rate, FT rate, rebound rate, assist rate, TS%, etc. and he's doing this as a much higher percentage of his team's overall possessions which is very valuable
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:55 (ten years ago) link
Aren't both of you arguing for the end conclusion that he is an amazing player
― 乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:57 (ten years ago) link
beautiful crab dribble there from bron
― k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:59 (ten years ago) link
it's not even close to his career high in 3 point rate. It's below his career average!
― Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:00 (ten years ago) link
are you even looking at the stats you should they're pretty interesting
GOD MATT
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:00 (ten years ago) link
― 乒乓, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Well I'm arguing that he was a good player back when PER said he was below average.
― Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:05 (ten years ago) link
Ah okay
Lol @ stathead telling the other stathead to go look at some stats
― 乒乓, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:06 (ten years ago) link
well yeah everyone agrees PER just doesn't do defense, someone like afflalo/thabo who are plus defenders but tertiary offensive players just aren't going to be as recognized by that metric. but that's an issue about PER's defensive weaknesses, not how it measures offense
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:11 (ten years ago) link