THE GLAZED DONUT FACE-OFF -- spurs! heat! it's the NBA finals 2014, where little fatasses happen

Was a little surprised zach Lowe picked so spurs in 7 bc I thought for sure he would go with the combo of "defending champs until dethroned" plus "best player on the planet" but his argument that it was so so so close last year and Miami is arguable a little worse is I think the key one right now

Counter would be that wade is better this year and has gotten better each round (!) but the counter to that counter is that Manu has been great and he was an actual trash barrel with flames coming out the top at points last finals

lurkers out yourselves imo

― Clay, Thursday, June 5, 2014 1:00 AM (18 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Hi. Echoing Jibe, this is a great board but I bow down to you guys far far superior knowledge and don't embarrass myself by posting(I save that for ILF). Went with Spurs in 6 or 7 based on emotion. Last year was sooo crushing.

I recall Manu's flame out last year all too well.

i'm going heat

I bow down to you guys far far superior knowledge and don't embarrass myself by posting

Doesn't stop me from posting!

yeah i picked spurs and when i think about it enough i think spurs but my gut keeps telling me heat. jalen and jacoby were on the podcast kinda befuddled at everyone picking spurs as well. for a series that seems like a real tossup to me there's a bizarre amount of consensus.

xpost me either

I'm glad a couple lurker a posted! Ha, I only really said that because there's like 30+ votes in this poll which has to be a landslide record for ilh. But it's cool you guys are around and feel free to say your thoughts during the series + onward!

the narrative that everyone is repeating -- that the spurs are better this year and the heat are worse -- is probably true for the regular season but the heat at least are playing much better in this year's playoffs than they did in last year's playoffs

another thing i've been thinking about is whether or not the spurs have another strategic counter left a la pack the paint because i imagine the heat will be prepared for that this year

Yeah the coaching duel might end up being the best thing about this series

the narrative that everyone is repeating -- that the spurs are better this year and the heat are worse -- is probably true for the regular season but the heat at least are playing much better in this year's playoffs than they did in last year's playoffs

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, June 5, 2014 4:22 PM (47 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is more or less how i feel

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/prepare-for-the-2014-nba-finals-with-lots-of-pictures-of-spurs-and-heat-haircuts--photos-183147980.html

freakin me out rn

Have to give that one to the Spurs.

i thought nothing could beat ginobli face but
http://instagram.com/p/o3Sop6qvEr/

Kawhi hands is my #1.

i dont like those haircuts they are bad

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpZg7HJCcAA0exV.png

the narrative that everyone is repeating -- that the spurs are better this year and the heat are worse -- is probably true for the regular season but the heat at least are playing much better in this year's playoffs than they did in last year's playoffs

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, June 5, 2014 4:22 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah this is a really good point. it's also just really tough to pick against the team with arguably the 2 best players in the series, though the spurs did just beat OKC, so idunno.

idk its not that easy to say exactly how good the heat are playing considering who theyve faced in the playoff

spurs have maybe the 3rd-5th and 7th-14th best players though but this is maybe not the best way of looking at things

idk its not that easy to say exactly how good the heat are playing considering who theyve faced in the playoff

― lag∞n, Thursday, June 5, 2014 6:14 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

yeah. they've eviscerated two top-10 defenses but the spurs offense will definitely test them.

but that said, if the lebron foul game doesn't happen the heat go 4-1, 4-1, 4-1 which is a huge swing from last year, esp wrt the east finals

also i agree with ∞ and have already said it several times but yeah the heat have basically not played an inarguably good team in a couple months

also like, in the three home games against the pacers this playoffs the heat hit top "we look totally unstoppable" gear for extended periods in games 3 and 4 and then for all of game 6. they could only do that last year once vs the pacers, and it was in game 7.

they pacers were very bad tho

but the pacers weren't the pacers by the time the east finals rolled around this year, the nets were completely cooked and coming off a difficult and long first round series, and the bobcats well you know xp to j

like those pacers that the heat looked unstoppable against still took them to six games. one month prior that same pacers team went to seven games against a hawks team that won ~40% of their games this year.

indiana's defense was still very good in the playoffs. it was off their regular season peak but still would've rated top 10 in the regular season.

I lurk here too, voted spurs in 6 or 7. I went to college in SA so they're my home team in a way. (& my fb feed is nuts with spurs fans right now, b/c a bunch of my college buddies stayed in south texas & spurs por vida)

also in europe for the next year+ so I can't watch the finals live unless I wake up stupid early. though one year I was in Turkey during the finals & woke up at a normal-ish early time to see a Shaq Kobe Lakers team live in the finals, which was really disorienting time-wise.

the heat's defense will definitely be tested, no doubt. they haven't played a good offensive team yet.

but like: the #1 off efficiency in the nba in the regular season was the clippers at 109. the heat in the playoffs are at 113.

that difference of ~4 efficiency points is the gap between the clippers and the knicks, who were the #10 offense in the regular season.

so the heat's competition has not been great. granted. but their offense is SMOKING teams. like, beyond unguardable.

what a team does against mediocre/bad competiton can be as telling as what it does vs good competition, and the heat in the playoffs have been like... better than the best offenses in the history of the nba.

do offensive and defensive ratings take into account strength of schedule b/c i think some of these eastern teams might have some highly inflated numbers

indiana's defense was still very good in the playoffs. it was off their regular season peak but still would've rated top 10 in the regular season.

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, June 5, 2014 6:24 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

top ten is like not that great, its just top third

the spurs offense has also been roasting everyone mostly so i wouldn't be surprised if every game was a shootout

top ten is like not that great, its just top third

― lag∞n, Thursday, June 5, 2014 6:31 PM (7 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that rating also takes into account having to play the heat 6 times and getting blasted half of those times. i'm sure their def eff vs atlanta/washington was right around their normal numbers.

the heat in the playoffs have been like... better than the best offenses in the history of the nba.

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, June 5, 2014 6:30 PM (42 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

omg u r out of control comparing full season numbers w 15 games what does it all mean

it's just for context. how would anyone know what "113" means as a number

well it cld be compared to past playoff runs for instance

the only teams that have beaten that number in the playoffs going back to 2003 are the 09-10 suns and the 08-09 nuggets

i still think it is important that the spurs have played 18 games against competition that is way better than anyone the heat have faced, "top 10 defense" or whatever. the bobcats knew they weren't winning a game, the nets were playing w/ other people's knees, and the pacers are actual crazy people.

sure, i'm not disputing that. though i bet the heat wouldn't have been taken 7 by the mavs.

yeah the heat wouldve had a hard time in the west imho, i mean everyone did it was stacked but they played some really exceptionally shitty competition, youd prob have to go back to the years the nets won the east to find worse competition

heat will 3peat because everyone always 3peats. has there ever been a repeat that did not then become a 3peat?

but the fact that their offense is playing at a rate aligned with the best offenses in nba history indicates that they would still be blitzing even good teams

and i think they'll blitz the spurs. we'll see what happens on the other end though.

that series with the mavs was weird and seemed to be more about history b/w the franchises than talent. and SA seems to start slow in rd 1 every year. since game 7 of that series they've been clicking in a fairly brutal fashion, disregarding a couple westbrook/kd freakout games in oklahoma.

but the fact that their offense is playing at a rate aligned with the best offenses in nba history indicates that they would still be blitzing even good teams

and i think they'll blitz the spurs. we'll see what happens on the other end though.

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Thursday, June 5, 2014 6:42 PM (41 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

or they cld revert to the mean

they'll almost certainly regress some. but even "some" would still leave the offense in a place of dominance.

1. LeBron James has shot 5-of-30 (16.7 percent) when Boris Diaw is guarding him over the past year.

Believe it! According to SportVU 3D player-tracking cameras, the portly Diaw was matched up with James for 8:43 in the regular season and the four-time MVP shot just 2-of-9 and scored just four points. Then we found out from ESPN Stats & Info video tracking of the 2013 Finals that James shot 3-of-21 against Diaw in the postseason, including 1-of-10 outside 10 feet. There might never be a LeBron James stopper for an entire game, but in a pinch? Diaw might be just the guy.

lol i want to believe

actually 6 of 11 championship streaks have ended at 2 so nvm xp to convo w/ myself

all championship runs continue into infinity iirc

the portly Diaw

Stately, plump Boris Diaw came from the stairhead, bearing a bowl of lather on which a mirror and a razor lay crossed.