some over/unders for my own personal enjoyment...
going off this list http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/updated-nba-overunder-win-totals-and-championships-odds-for-october-4/
Atlanta Hawks -- 44
over ... i like the dwight signing for them and i think they're fairly deep. this will probably be close but i think they can get to 46ish wins (a few off last year), i have faith in their system.
Boston Celtics -- 52.5
over ... i think they get the two seed in the east which means they should clear 53 by at least a few games
Brooklyn Nets -- 21.5
over ... this puts them right at where they were last year and they added some professionals this offseason. their starting lineup really isn't the worst thing i've ever seen but with one bad injury they could really blow.
Charlotte Hornets -- 40.5
over ... this drops them basically 8 wins off last year's total and tho lin and courtney lee were really good for them i think clifford is a good coach who will at least have them fighting for the 8 seed.
Chicago Bulls -- 38.5
under ... 38 is a really low number and they'll *probably* at least hit the 40s but i think the downside of this team is pretty massive. rondo is bad and a malcontent, wade can't be better than he was last year, jimmy b and hoiberg already hate each other and nobody has any idea if hoiberg is even a decent nba coach. their bench is also a bunch of vaguely interesting prospects who haven't yet proven themselves so maybe there's some upside there but i think more likely this team just falls apart.
Cleveland Cavaliers -- 56.5
over ... the cavs will coast again but i think they'll be energized by wining it last year and maybe feeling a little competitive with the warriors. plus the celtics might push them. anyway i don't see them winning less than last year unless bron just mails the season in.
Dallas Mavericks -- 39
under ... i think this is the year it kind of falls apart for them. if they don't get full seasons from bogut and d will the cupboard is really bare outside of dirk because i don't think barnes is any good, and bogut/d will were already breaking down at the end of last year. this just looks like a bad roster to me even by their recent standards.
Denver Nuggets -- 36.5
under ... hitting the over here would only be a 4 game increase from last season. i like the roster, i do think they could have a jazz-esque thing going in a few years, but there's still a ton of young guys and i think maybe there's some growth individually with some of those guys without it being reflected in the win total necessarily.
Detroit Pistons -- 46
under ... reggie jackson being out concerns me and there's a dearth of shooting here. the tobias harris trade was still good in its own context but it feels like stan still needs to tweak this roster a bit.
Golden State Warriors -- 66.5
over ... i think they'll purposefully win less than 70 games but i don't see how they don't get to at least 68 or 69
Houston Rockets -- 43.5
over ... i didn't really like their offseason signings and they're gonna be reliant on harden to make so many plays for them, but still think they should hit about ~45 wins
Indiana Pacers -- 45
over ... they were at 45 last year and have a very professional rotation now. i like teague more than most also. they feel like a 3-4 seed so somewhere around ~48 wins.
Los Angeles Clippers -- 54
over ... they should still be their usual selves. speights and ray felton were decent additions for them and w/ a fuller season from blake i think they prob hit the high 50s.
Los Angeles Lakers -- 25
under ... even with adding mozgov and deng i don't see how they're 8 games better when they're going to be funneling a major portion of their offense thru a second year guy who barely got the ball last year and a rookie, plus a rookie head coach. this feels like 3 games too high for me.
Memphis Grizzlies -- 43.5
under ... if everything goes right for them healthwise they're probably in the ~45 range but the downside is so large that i'd bet on them slipping under it.
Miami Heat -- 35
over ... i wouldn't bet my life on this or anything but the super-small up and down version of the heat from last season was an identity that i thought really worked for them, but one thing that often ground it to a halt was wade's ball stopping tendencies. i'm interested in what they look like this year with the dragic-whiteside pick and roll as the staple of the offense, and with winslow and richardson more fully unleashed on the fastbreak. i think really they might miss deng more than wade bcuz right now they don't really have a stretch 4 except i guess luke babbit which :-/. if dragic or whiteside has to miss any significant time they're fucked, and there is a chance that riley tries to move off dragic and tank for one more star rookie in what should be a good draft next year. but aside from crunch time baskets i think they'll miss wade less than people think, and they at least got a head start on figuring out what they are outside of bosh. their offseason acquisitions were underwhelming on paper but at least they're gonna be putting guys like waiters, derrick williams and james johnson in a system that isn't so half court dependent. anyway i think they end up fighting for the eighth seed which would put them clear over 35 wins.
Milwaukee Bucks -- 36
under ... i would say only a slight under here but w/ middleton out for an entire season i don't see how they're appreciably better than they were last year.
Minnesota Timberwolves -- 41.5
under ... they've looked completely nasty in the preseason but i'll just bet that they need one more season before really barnstorming the league. i wouldn't be surprised if they hit exactly 41 actually.
New Orleans Pelicans -- 36.5
under ... i think they're probably a few games better than they were last season but this roster is really kind of horrific.
New York Knicks -- 40
under ... they hit 32 last season and they'll def be better but rose is not good, noah is completely cooked, and i don't think kristaps and melo are enough to get them to 40 wins alone. i don't buy them as a playoff contender at all and i think this team gets blown up again next offseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder -- 45.5
under ... this is a tough number and it seems like a lot of people are confident in their ability to get up near 50 wins again but idk outside of westbrook/kanter/adams there aren't very many good players on this team. also that the best shooter on the roster is probably ersan ilyasova now is i would say concerning. i think they're more in the 6-7-8 range of the playoff race than the 3-4-5.
Orlando Magic -- 36.5
over ... their moves this offseason were bizarre from a longterm perspective but to take the over here assumes only a 2 game improvement from last season, and i think they added enough talent to hit that number, plus vogel will be a giant upgrade. i actually like them as a fringe 8 seed, though i think they probably finish with like 40 or 41 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers -- 24.5
under ... this is off the board in the source i'm using but i saw 24.5 somewhere else. anyway i don't think they're anywhere near 14 games better than they were last season even if they somehow get a full season of embiid.
Phoenix Suns -- 28.5
under .. this number asks for at least a 6 win jump from last year for the over and i don't see how that happens. best case scenario for them is that tyson chandler doesn't look like a corpse again and they can move him and open more playing time for their young bigs. they have a really active GM so i expect this team post-deadline to be really young, maybe w/o chandler and dudley and maybe either bledsoe or knight.
Portland Trail Blazers -- 45.5
under ... they're a clear playoff team to me but i think they flex back a little this year. i don't like the evan turner signing at all and there will be more competition in the west this season.
Sacramento Kings -- 32.5
over ... i don't think they get anywhere near the playoffs but i buy that joerger gives them some stability finally. their starting 5 isn't half bad and they go 8 or 9 deep now with guys who are legit NBA players. plus getting rid of rondo prob means an extra few wins on its own. i think they're in the 35-36 range.
San Antonio Spurs -- 57.5
over ... i think this is maybe closer to the line than a lot of people think, maybe 59-60 as opposed to 62 or so but in pop we trust.
Toronto Raptors -- 50.6
over ... this drops them 6 off last year which feels pretty steep for only having lost biymobo, who i think is prob a bit overrated due to the playoffs. seems like they're at a point now where they'll clear 51 regular season wins for a few more years. i like them at about 52 or 53 this year and in a dogfight with the celtics for the second seed.
Utah Jazz -- 47.5
over ... i would say a slight over here. between 48 and 50. i still don't quite get how they score the ball but their defense should be crazy good and all the computer models love them this year so \(o_O)/
Washington Wizards -- 42.5
over ... i think something is wrong with this franchise and that whatever core they think they have -- wall/beal/porter i guess? -- is not going to get them where they think it might. but last season was a year from hell for them and they still hit 41 wins, so i think with a better coach they can get up to 43-44 or something at least. i liked the mahinmi signing.
― J0rdan S., Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:37 (seven years ago) link
i made diff predix on the offseason thread before certain things had broken (reggie jackson's injury, etc.) but am sticking to the following:
beast coast:
cleveland
boston
toronto
indiana
atlanta
detroit
charlotte
washington (by like, the slimmest of margins)
the evening redness in the west aka the blood of teams losing to GSW by avg. 20 points a game:
golden state
san antonio
L.A. clippers
(things get hazy with the rest bc health and shit are gonna break weirdly, so rest are like on an all things being equal basis)
memphis (if healthy they walk to the 4th seed imo; if only chandler parsons gets hurt again i still think they make it)
utah
portland
houston
OKC
(wolves, nugs, pelicans and - fuck it - kings all clustered in the 9-12 spots)
MVP: kawhi leonard
DPOY: A REJUVENATED ROY HIBBERT (no, seriously, it's prob rudy gobert *eats words from drunken "the jazz are fucking boring/rudy is overrated" posts 1.5 yrs ago)
ROY: embiid if he's eligible, kris dunn if embiid is not
COTY: brother brad stevens
ECF: cavs over celtics in 7
WCF: dubs over clippers in 6
CHAMPS: dubs over cavs in 6