Canadian Politics Thread

Maybe you were right, clemenza...: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/962129--tories-on-brink-of-majority-as-election-called?bn=1

(Signed up to volunteer with Brian Masse's campaign. First time I've done this.)

Also, their foreign policy platform looks like something a first year university student might write on a napkin during coffee break.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:10 AM (3 days ago) Bookmark

Shame it couldn't be as nuanced as Iraq hawk Ignatieff's, eh?

tho apparently my beliefs are closest to the green party's, so what the hell do I know

Yeah, despite my earlier comments, I have to admit that Ignatieff's foreign policy views are probably the #1 reason I'm not an LPC supporter.

The NDP didn't have enough seats to keep the Liberals in power in 06 even if they'd wanted to, btw. The motion of no confidence passed 171-132. The NDP only held 19 seats.

The balance of power was held by the independents in '04-'06, but it was the NDP's withdrawal of support for the Libs (over healthcare) that triggered the election.

Sure, it's reasonable to not support a budget brought forth by a governing party full of liars, but when the *only* alternative is an election, it's a bad move by the opposition unless they're sure they can win. (I'm not sure that the Libs really understand this, hence the Einstein quote)

Also, their foreign policy platform looks like something a first year university student might write on a napkin during coffee break.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:10 AM (3 days ago) Bookmark

Shame it couldn't be as nuanced as Iraq hawk Ignatieff's, eh?

― symsymsym, Sunday, March 27, 2011 2:46 AM (5 hours ago) Bookmark

I was thinking more about the non-war stuff, i.e. the Libs seem to have a plan for dealing with fast growing economies such as India and China, and a way to position themselves relative to the other G20 nations. I'm not sure the NDP have really thought about this stuff beyond "we'll try to prevent our jobs going over there".

it's a bad move by the opposition unless they're sure they can win.

OK, you can never be *sure* you can win, but you should have a lot of momentum going into the election, as though things are rapidly turning in your favour. A dispute over the cost of some fighter jets is going to bring down a govt whose poll numbers have been more or less consistent for the past three years? Really??

too drunk to recall specifically but the flyers i get from the ndp mp for my riding always have this resinged 'yeah but what are you gonna do?' tone to them via bragging abt like, helping get new subway cars & shit. its sorta endearing but mostly lol

ndp humblebrag

where do u live lamp?

that sounds like the flyers from my ndp mp, too, Ms Chow. Seems like a decent sort, we see her around the area often, but she's almost more like a city councillor than an MP, whatever that means.

you typed it - what does it mean?!

lol wasn't olivia chow a toronto city councillor for a long time?

haha, fair point. :) And, yeah, she was a councillor for quite a while. Her flyers still read like that. Which is cool, she's concerned with local issues, that's a fine thing. Nice to not have just standard national politics talking points regurgitated yet again.

A friend of mine, who leans pretty conservative, I guess, said something today about "lol, Ignatieff drinks latte", as if it was some devastating zing. I'm not a fan of Ignatieff, particularly, but I'm so very sick of culture war style stuff like this. IS there anything substantial to actually talk about in this election, at least as far as policy differences between the two main parties go?

I'd be able to tolerate a minority government from any of them, but I think a majority would be a bad thing at this point.

That compass thing told me I was closest to the Bloc... o.O

the only thing the bloc is wrong on is quebec, imo

that's an exaggeration i guess

No, I completely agree!

For that matter, I disagree with the NDP's stance on Quebec ('asymmetrical federalism') as well.

Will, what's your sense of how the BQ is seen in Quebec? I've kind of been assuming/suspecting that most of their voters see them primarily as a social democratic/progressive option that looks out for Quebec's interests first rather than a separatist party per se (especially since a federal party could never call a referendum anyway). Since separatism seems to have been largely dormant for a while (and it's not like the BQ has been especially active in terms of trying to push for constitutional changes), that makes the most sense to me. But maybe that's wishful thinking?

I can't speak to it, I live in Montreal. I am reasonably confident that most BQ votes come out of francophone nationalism & an urge for sovereignty. I have heard some stories abt people visiting their families in northern Quebec and the level of racism/xenophobia makes the southern USA look like a big welcoming hug that goes all the way around the world. But I guess it comes down to the individual MPs, right? What's weird though (and I could be completely making this up in my head) is that the xenophobe vote is starting to get split w/ the Conservatives and the last two elections have had Cons elected in Quebec, which didn't happen for years?

that political compass thing told me to vote for the bloc

I think a lot of people vote Bloc in Quebec mostly by default just because they don't like what the other parties are offering. I guess a lot of people also vote for them because of the sovereignty thing, but this seems to be pretty low priority for most people I know (admittedly I mostly only know people living in and around montreal).

I think a lot of people vote Bloc in Quebec mostly by default just because they don't like what the other parties are offering. I guess a lot of people also vote for them because of the sovereignty thing, but this seems to be pretty low priority for most people I know (admittedly I mostly only know people living in and around montreal).

― peter in montreal, Monday, March 28, 2011 11:20 AM (34 minutes ago) Bookmark

This? More or less? My boyfriend's family is from relatively rural Quebec, and the depth of Bloc support outside the urban areas in Quebec is exceptionally strong both because of the sovereignty/nationalism thing but mostly the former. In Montreal, this:

most of their voters see them primarily as a social democratic/progressive option that looks out for Quebec's interests first rather than a separatist party per se

strikes me as more true. While the xenophobia/racism thing is certainly present (significantly in a lot of Quebec) I'm not sure if there's any clear correlation with Bloc voters and xenophobic tendencies. I have fairly cosmopolitan mid-20s friends who support the Bloc and have 60 year old family members who vote Liberal but are on the xenophobic side of 'reasonable accommodation' bullshit.

I mean, on a provincial level there's a fairly clear distinction b/t the leftist/progressive Parti Quebecois and the ADQ, which is a secular Quebec nationalist right wing/market party. The prospect of an actual referendum and secession is so far removed from its 90s heyday that while the presence of the Bloc in Parliament makes achieving majorities frustratingly difficult, esp. for the Liberals, they're nice to have around for social issues. A Bloc that lined up ideologically with the Conservative gov't rather than the NDP and Liberals on the environment, gay rights, etc. would make political geography slightly more terrifying.

The prospect of an actual referendum and secession is so far removed from its 90s heyday

It'll be interesting to see how much Duceppe talks about separatism in this campaign. The BQ essentially functions as the "Quebec first" party rather than a separatist party in the current political climate, although obviously they can't risk straying too far from a separatist message without alienating a lot of voters.

Holy shit!: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Tories+begin+election+ahead+Liberals+poll/4498903/story.html

i wouldn't get too worked up over that. most polls done for the Post/Global media monstrosity enjoy over stating the Con's popularity.
you can see a bunch of recent polls here: http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php

although in all those recent ones the Cons are still looking pretty good.

Personally I find the most surprising fact in that article to be this:

• In Alberta, the Tories stand at 54 per cent support, while the Liberals have 23 per cent, the NDP have 17 per cent and the Green party has five per cent.

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 66 per cent, while the Liberals have 18 per cent and NDP has 13 per cent.

only 54%!? whaaat? more support for Tories in SK/MB than AB?

Layton really seems to be targeting AB and the West generally. Maybe it's paying off...?

I'm guessing that the Conservatives' 'coalition' angle is actually working. I was genuinely angry watching Guy Giorno claim on Power Play that in the event of a minority Parliament that voted no confidence in the party with the plurality of seats, it would be "undemocratic" for the party with the second-most seats to govern with the support of the remaining Opposition parties. In a Westminster Parliament, we vote for local representatives, not directly for a head of government. If someone can govern with the support of the majority of elected members, that is not undemocratic. That's how Parliamentary democracy works and should work. Perhaps remedial Gr 10 history/civics classes are in order for high-ranking Conservatives?

But yeah, going by polls, SK/MB have been fucking loving the CPC for some time now. I'm not completely sure why. The gun registry? Fatigue with provincial NDPs? Resentment of Central ('Eastern') Canada?

One MLW poster makes the convincing case that convincing the public of the 'coalition threat' is a brilliant strategic move on the part of the CPC if they want to destroy the LPC from both sides: Centre-right Lib/Con swing voters vote Con in order to produce a CPC majority so as to avoid having socialists influencing the PM; Centre-left Lib/NDP swing voters vote NDP, secure that they don't need to 'strategically' vote Liberal since the NDP will have a role in a governing coalition.

MLW?
i'm not sure how "brilliant" a strategy it is since, having tried to pull a coalition stunt himself, this can blow up in Harper's face pretty easily.

Maple Leaf Web, sorry.

And, yeah, that's what Layton and Duceppe have been saying and part of what Reality Check discusses here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/03/the-coalitions-not-the-question.html

I think the CPC is banking on a couple of things, though:

i) They're leading in the polls so people are less likely to think they'll need to try something like that again. (Plus, a coalition including the #1 party may seem less objectionable to the sort of people who think there is something objectionable about coalitions.)

ii) Their right-wing base isn't going anywhere (since they have nowhere else to go) and they can draw in more moderate voters this way, while simultaneously pushing away the left wing of the Liberal base. If anything, the idea that the CPC may be willing to work with other parties may even help them win centrist votes.

More good points: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/03/coalition-reality-parsing-use-of-the-c-word.html

xpost - Yeah who knows, interesting to see where each party kicked off their campaigning this time around though. I'm glad Layton chose Edmonton as a starting point and it makes sense given that they are the second-place party in most Edm ridings but I'll be really surprised if NDP gain another seat (I hope they at least keep the one they have though, it'll be tight). On a side note, it seems the NDP dude for my area is really into comics which is kind of awesome

Do we have anyone from SK/MB on here who can enlighten us on this Tory business?

Having seen the UK's Tory/Lib Dem coalition in action over the last year I absolutely do not want a similar thing to happen in Canada. I really hope voters don't go in for either of those points you mention and that the other parties aren't tempted to form a coalition with the Conservatives.

WTF did the Lib Dems even gain from that coalition?

ii) Their right-wing base isn't going anywhere (since they have nowhere else to go) and they can draw in more moderate voters this way, while simultaneously pushing away the left wing of the Liberal base.

This is exactly how they get to 40% and a majority, and specifically, they focus on Southern Ontario because there are plenty of centrist Liberal voters who can be convinced to switch their votes. The early poll numbers show exactly this trend ... compared to the last election the Libs have lost several points to the Tories and the support for the other parties has stayed more or less the same.

it's a long while since i (a yank) knew anything about much about canadian politics but:

a. so jealous of the six-week campaign cycle
b. no morbz

so i have read that the tories are still expected to win a plurality (and can hope for a majority) -- why then was the no-confidence vote brought?

Because they couldn't in good conscience support a budget based on substantially fictional projections. And because they misjudged how little people care about lack of transparency, use of gov't letterheads and funds for targeted fundraising appeals, etc. Etc. Etc.

that sounds like the flyers from my ndp mp, too, Ms Chow. Seems like a decent sort, we see her around the area often, but she's almost more like a city councillor than an MP, whatever that means.

yeah olivia chow is my mp as well - she seems p dece although i dont know anything abt anything. i was just loling @ the flyer that touted her helping get some dude a falafel cart license or w/e

i am p excited about this election in a silly outsider-y way, although i dont think theres much i can do to help get harper out of office

WTF did the Lib Dems even gain from that coalition?

Permalink
― EveningStar (Sund4r)

i am p excited about this election in a silly outsider-y way, although i dont think theres much i can do to help get harper out of office

so they showed a clip on the Colbert report last night from some US news (CNN maybe) where they said "Stephen Harper's coalition government" had fallen.
i chuckled.

How does ILX feel about strategic/defensive voting? I've been, err, lucky enough to never have to because either I've lived in swing ridings where my guy is part of the swing, OR i have lived in places where a win is a foregone conclusion for one person, so i can just vote however i please.

i've done it before - but usually i go with how i feel.

I generally don't like strategic voting, which sort of goes hand in hand with my dislike of elections with proportional representation (if that makes sense). I think we had some lengthy discussions about this on other threads (possibly on one of the US election threads).

with first-past-the-post you kind of have to use strategy since the system is such crap

In my family people always put emphasis on "vote for the local candidate" vs "vote for the party", and 90% of the time they stuck with the party. That's not really strategic voting though.

xpost

xpost Not necessarily. If you want to let the party know that they have supporters in your riding, then you owe it to them to give them your vote. Then they'll know where they have pockets of support, and they'll be more likely to put more effort into campaigning and building up more support in that area leading up to the next election.

You've always been a Liberal voter in Toronto-area ridings though, right? Would you have opposed e.g. the 2008 Liberals for [NDP MP] Linda [Duncan] campaign in Edmonton-Strathcona, given that the alternative would have been a(nother) CPC MP and a fairly lousy one, just on the grounds that the Liberal Party would know they had that extra vote in an AB riding? Or would you oppose a US Green Party supporter voting for a Democratic Presidential or Gubernatorial candidate in order to block a Republican win?

When there is a concerted campaign behind one candidate in a close riding, I think strategic voting can make sense. However, that only applies to a very specific number of ridings.

Btw, while I've moved a little towards your views on proportional representation (I think I'd actually prefer non-partisan democracy best), many NDP supporters would tell you that they strategically vote Liberal (or perhaps BQ) because we don't have PR.

Those are both "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" scenarios, so it would depend on whether (to use your first example) I hated the Tories more than I liked the Liberals. In this case, I'd have to hate them a LOT more.

I also wouldn't vote for a party that I didn't like, no matter who their opponents were, for instance, I wouldn't vote for the federal NDP. Maybe if I happened to really like the NDP candidate in my riding and the Tories were running a genetically engineered neo-Stalin, but otherwise no.

To expand on that a bit more, I could imagine a situation where I would vote for the BQ if I lived in Quebec even though I'm not a separatist. I know I'm not the only one on this board who admires the BQ for being socially progressive, and I happen to like Duceppe as a leader.