Just when we thought LeBron James couldn't possibly take his game to the next level, he raises the bar even higher. At the Miami Heat's media day before the season, James confidently declared that he improved his game during the offseason. This, after falling one vote shy of becoming the first unanimous MVP in NBA history.
"I know you guys are tired of hearing me say this," James told the room of reporters, "but I got better."
Ten games in, it's hard to disagree.
After shooting a career-high 56.5 percent last season, James has toyed with opponents in the early going, making a ridiculous 62.2 percent of his shots from the floor. For someone who shoots as often as he does, his conversion rate is almost unfair. Consider this: Of the 18 players who have fired at least as many field goal attempts as James has this season, only one has even shot more than 50 percent (Blake Griffin, 57.2 percent).
Actually, James could go 0-for-40 against the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night, and he still would be shooting at least 50 percent. That's how efficient he has been. Which brings us to our next question: Is this the hottest shooting start we've ever seen?
High-volume efficiency
To tackle that question, we first have to draw some lines in the sand. What makes James' start so bananas is that he's doing this as a No. 1 scoring option, not a dunking role player. Sure, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond each has shot better from the floor this season, but they also are shooting just a handful of times per game. James has averaged more shots than those two combined.
To weed out supporting cast members, I pulled up the Basketball-Reference.com database, which goes back to the 1985-86 season and looked at the 936 times a player has shot at least 150 field goal attempts in his first 10 games in a season (James has 164).
What did I find? Only one player has managed to top James' ridiculous start: Shaquille O'Neal. Yes, O'Neal is the only "go-to" scorer of the past 30 years who has matched James' field goal percentage in his first 10 games in a season. He has topped James twice -- 66.7 percent in 1995-96 and 62.6 percent in 1993-94. Michael Jordan never did it. The closest Kobe Bryant has come is 52.8 percent, which he did last season, and that's almost 100 percentage points below James' current rate.
Leveling the playing field
What this means is James is currently shooting nearly as proficiently as a 7-foot-2, 300-pound monster who almost exclusively resided inside the paint. Thing is, James has taken almost half of his shots beyond 10 feet, which flies in the face of the archaic notion that James' game is all dunks and layups. In reality, the guy is shooting 15-of-29 (51.7 percent) from 3-point range, which shouldn't be possible for a human freight train.
Shaquille O'Neal
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty ImagesShaquille O'Neal's efficiency derived from an average shot distance of 3.4 feet; LeBron James has been shooting from 10.1 feet away.
In fact, James' average shot distance this season is 10.1 feet from the basket. O'Neal's average shot distance in 1997-98, the first season the league started tracking these things, was 3.4 feet, less than half the distance of James' average try. So let's put them on a level playing field, shall we? For that, I'll bring in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the added value of the 3-pointer and does a better job of measuring shot efficiency.
And what did I find? James tops them all in efficiency. With an effective field goal percentage of 66.8 percent, James owns the most efficient 10-game start among a star-studded batch of nearly 1,000 player seasons. Adjusting for his 3-point range, James is effectively shooting 66.8 percent on 2s, which just barely tops Shaq's rate and all of the others on the list.
LeBron in space
What we're seeing is the answer to the question, "What if you gave LeBron James space to operate?" Heat coach Erik Spoelstra designed Miami's "pace-and-space" offense to maximize James' freakish athleticism and ever-growing skill set. Spread the floor, move the ball and attack before the defense can react. It's no coincidence that James is shooting 62.2 percent while being assisted on a career-high 54.9 percent of his shots. By comparison, James was assisted on just 32.3 percent of his shots during his first season in Miami and 37.2 percent of his shots in Cleveland.
And believe it or not, yes, James still is adding weapons to his loaded arsenal. Take for instance James' fadeaway (à la Dirk Nowitzki) that he appears to be incorporating more into his game this season (GIF'd here by Heat.com's Danny Martinez.) James went back for seconds with that shot against the Charlotte Bobcats. He used it on Saturday for his opening bucket of the game, rendering Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's 7-foot wingspan utterly useless.
The evidence is everywhere: James has become almost impossible to guard. James' best strength always has been that he's able to create easy (close) shots better than anybody. He's converting a league-best 79.5 percent in the restricted area, according to NBA.com. Now he's making the hard ones, too. Contrary to popular belief, James isn't just feasting on open looks. Defenses gear up to stop him from getting to the basket, but he still manages to carve out a path regardless of how many bodies opposing teams throw his way. On Friday, after Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle watched James convert backbreaking jumpers and acrobatic layups in traffic at the rim, the coach billed James as "probably the only guy in the game that can hit those shots."
The numbers confirm what Carlisle's eyes are seeing. According to SportVU 3D-tracking data, James is shooting an absurd 66.3 percent (65-for-98) on contested shots this season, which is actually better than when he's open (56.1 percent on 66 shots). In other words, James hasn't just put up the most efficient start in a generation -- James has apparently inverted the laws of basketball, as well.
― le goon (J0rdan S.), Tuesday, 19 November 2013 18:44 (ten years ago) link