in these, the waning days of stern: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 1)

Eh lebron shot 56 on the season and 49 in the "'"'offs'"'" last year

Clear to me that Bron desperately needs to develop a half court + post game

Lebrons efficiency already far outstrips his team and we know he watches his stats in the regular season. He can shoot high volume at 49% and not drag his team down.

i want to know who, at 6'5 and 220, james harden is going to post up

Look, the idea his for the vast majority of players a shot between 3 ft and the arc is a higher % shot than a 3. Harden has such a terrible midrange game that it isn't. No team wants to live by the 3 in the playoffs because once you go cold there ain't much else you can do except drive and hope you get calls and the refs tend to swallow their whistles in the playoffs.

I just don't see Harden being successful as a primary scorer in the playoffs.

I dunno probably the same people Kobe does with his turnaround J.

rockets average pace for the 2013 regular season = 96.1
average pace for their 6 games in the playoffs last year = 94.4, so basically no difference. harden had his best game in a game with 92 possessions

but but that goes against some anecdotal nonsense that someone said on the espn pregame show

Look, the idea his for the vast majority of players a shot between 3 ft and the arc is a higher % shot than a 3.

you realize that threes are worth more, right. the fuck is this guy?

That's because they were facing a team that could run and do it better.

worth more, but harder to get. especially in the playoffs where there's better 3 pt defense.

Tsrobodo is basically correct that teams stop shooting 3s in the playoffs. In fact I can't recall ever seeing a team shoot a 3 in the playoffs in the last 10 years

tsrobodo more like true shooting pct (ts%)roboto

Domo arigato tsrobodo

The part where I say teams stop shooting 3's?

worth more, but harder to get. especially in the playoffs where there's better 3 pt defense.

― tsrobodo, Sunday, November 24, 2013 10:09 PM (2 minutes ago)

three pointers are higher value shots than midrange jumpers, this is accepted by virtually everyone who has any idea what they're talking about. i'm not going to big bird basketball 101 to you anymore

ok moving beyond this ridiculous argument, this sounds cool:

Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 7m
There will be similar clickable video for assists, turnovers, steals, rebounds, but NOT fouls. Archive will include last season, too.
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Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 8m
For example: If LeBron is 10-of-16 from the floor, fans can click on that "16," and see a video reel of all 16 LeBron shots.
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Zach Lowe ‏@ZachLowe_NBA 9m
NBA will announce tomorrow that box scores with video links will be available to all fans on http://NBA.com .

Why do you keep disputing things that I haven't said. Three point shots are higher value but they're harder to create space for . Players that can isolate are useful in the post season for that very reason.

i guess probably because it's as valid as you saying a bunch of received-wisdom types things that you are not backing up with evidence

Just saying what I think based on what I've seen, what do you expect me to pull stat sheets out of my ass? If I'm wrong, tell me why. No point getting heated and dismissive cause some dude you don't know said some shit you don't agree with.

tbf people have told you why and provided you with stats

Most of which (can't be sure seeing as, ya'll love to pile on) I tried to rebut.

if you're going to make a claim that is contrary to most folks' understanding of the nba or of a particular player, then yes it would be nice if you came with some stats. they're all over the place, it's not really much to ask.

i want to know who, at 6'5 and 220, james harden is going to post up

― call all destroyer, Monday, November 25, 2013 2:58 AM (27 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dantlad01.html

Noted, would have done but understand there are 4 or 5 of you. Hard to reply to all, do whatever else as well as find stats.

we got nothin but time

Why do you keep disputing things that I haven't said. Three point shots are higher value but they're harder to create space for . Players that can isolate are useful in the post season for that very reason.

― tsrobodo, Sunday, November 24, 2013 10:17 PM (5 minutes ago)

harden's usage rate is in the high 20s and the percentage of his baskets that have been assisted this year is 31%, which is very low. the guy can isolate. furthermore it's not that he "can't" shoot midrange jumpshots -- he deliberately avoids them because they are low EV. the ones he does take tend to be late in the shot clock and not good looks, hence his just-average numbers from that distance. if he wanted to be joe johnson he could do that

basically you're totally wrong. i actually would be interested in seeing his numbers broken down by halfcourt vs in-transition, of course his transition numbers would be better -- everyone's likely are, there are fewer defenders and most of the shots are layups -- but i'd guess his halfcourt numbers largely are similar to his overall numbers due to the fact that the vast majority of possessions take place in the halfcourt. i don't know where to find this info though, anyone know? i've definitely seen players halfcourt numbers referred to by various writers tho so it def exists. synergy?

the ones he does take tend to be late in the shot clock and not good looks

I don't think this is true, at least this season.

his 16-23 footers are way up this season, but generally it seems to me that when harden is taking an 18-footer it's because it wasn't his first option

every 15-18 footer I remember him taking this season was a great look (and he pretty much hit all of them)

There's also a lot more insanity and capriciousness in his shot selection than you're implying. I think he takes a lot of midrange shots because he feels like it.

well yeah i'm just trying to explain the data, he's a very good foul shooter and a good 3 point shooter, there's no reason his midrange % should be in the 30s unless something else is going on

a lot of his rare midrange shots I should say xp

it's prob synergy, i was looking earlier and like 82 games and hoopdata didn't have it

xp

he's not a good 3 point shooter

he shot 36.5% on an insane amount of attempts last year doggie, 39% the year before. he's not steph curry but his 3 point shot is effective

basically if you can break 35% you should be shooting as many 3s as possible

he shot 36.5% on an insane amount of attempts last year doggie, 39% the year before. he's not steph curry but his 3 point shot is effective

― k3vin k., Monday, November 25, 2013 3:41 AM (44 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he is average. An average 3 point shooter.

Yah man gotta be up around 40 to have green light all day.

esp nowadays, how many dudes now can crack 45% even?

shooting a 3 at 35% gives an expected points per shot of 1.15, which would be the best offense in the league. those are the shots teams should be maximizing, and the trend is clear -- the league average 3 point rate is over 25% this year, and has been steadily climbing.

He doesn't isolate, he sets high picks and shoots right and drives left. He's the primary ball handler and jacks up a lot of late shots its hardly surprising that his FGs aren't assisted on.

And no he is well below average from midrange Last season he shot about 31%, league average was about 40% and that wasn't his first season of poor midrange shooting. If he could be iso Joe we've seen nothing to suggest that.

Haven't got a synergy subscription and such stats are hard to come by. In fact stats in general are hard to come by because he's only played 6 playoff games as a primary scorer, and stats from OKC aren't all that useful, so yes what I'm saying involves a lot of conjecture but I think broader stats bear out what I'm saying.

shooting a 3 at 35% gives an expected points per shot of 1.15, which would be the best offense in the league. those are the shots teams should be maximizing, and the trend is clear -- the league average 3 point rate is over 25% this year, and has been steadily climbing.

― k3vin k., Monday, November 25, 2013 3:49 AM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Do you think Kirk Hinrich should shoot 3s whenever he gets a chance

there are other people on the court. Who shoot threes better than he does. He's not that good at it.

he plays for the bulls so yes

I mean your argument in favor of three point shooting in general is fine, but he's not a "good" three point shooter by NBA standards.

there are other people on the court. Who shoot threes better than he does. He's not that good at it.

― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, November 24, 2013 10:52 PM (32 seconds ago)

yes, and these people are not as skilled at getting their own shots and have to be assisted more often. which is fine, but it's why i don't think the rockets should just give francisco garcia the ball and tell him to jack up as many 3s as possible (same with hinrich)

harden plays 39.3 minutes a game, has a usage rate of 27.1%, and his 3 point rate is 41.5%, which means that about 8% of all of houston's possessions are harden 3 pointers. given that he he's a 36.6% career 3 point shooter, that's a good thing, and something i'm sure houston's management wants to maximize

lol bro ok average to slightly above average, whatever, harden is obv a good shooter the guy is not rudy gay or something.

anyway onto more important topics:

LeBron James ‏@KingJames 7m
Miley Cyrus has a great voice! Can sing for real. Just turn down the shananigans a lil and she winning!

but it's why i don't think the rockets should just give francisco garcia the ball and tell him to jack up as many 3s as possible (same with hinrich)
― k3vin k., Monday, November 25, 2013 4:01 AM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

but you just said Hinrich should jack up threes whenever