in these, the waning days of stern: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 1)

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guys guys never mind that important breaking news im not sure what a shooting shirt is but @mcten: LAL players will have Twitter handles on back of their shooting shirts

lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:18 (ten years ago) link

if you make a high % of your shots/get a lot of assists/etc it's pretty obvious why using a high percentage of your team's possessions would be a good thing; if you're gonna be kyle korver and never miss but take like 3 shots a game and do nothing else it's p obvious why this is not ideal

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:15 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Affalo is doing the same fucking shit he did at the same or slightly better rates and his PER is about twice as high because his usage is about twice as high. If you were gonna pick an example of how PER is a dumb stat he's a good one. It overcompensates for high usage.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:23 (ten years ago) link

...

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:24 (ten years ago) link

matt there are gonna be warm ups or something with twitter handles on them this very night and instead for the millionth time youre going to pretend you dont know why usage might be worth considering when evaluating players, your priorities are all out of wack

lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:27 (ten years ago) link

the exact same (good) production at a higher usage rate is not more efficient, it's just more useful.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:27 (ten years ago) link

matt is the king of comparing players to hakeem olajuwon based on their per 36 min data so i don't think we're gonna find a meeting place here

le goon (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:28 (ten years ago) link

basketball is not baseball where everyone gets their turn at bat, it's a sport where you want to maximize the expected value of every possession and you can actually control some things, there's no rule that says your worst players need looks. if you're a player who can shoot a 65% ts%, it is to your team's benefit if you use up as many possessions as possible, because if you're not taking thos shots/otherwise using those possessions, someone else (of lesser value) is

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:29 (ten years ago) link

just forget about the word efficient and everything will make sense, he shouldnt have used effeinct in the name for per

lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:30 (ten years ago) link

matt there are gonna be warm ups or something with twitter handles on them this very night and instead for the millionth time youre going to pretend you dont know why usage might be worth considering when evaluating players, your priorities are all out of wack

― lag∞n, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:27 PM (20 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

usage is totally worth considering, which is why it was obvious Afflalo was really efficient player because of how well he played with low usage!

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:30 (ten years ago) link

god matt fine think of PER as like a per-possession amount of value created, you're just caviling over the definition of "efficiency" because you think it implies a personal denominator rather than one in a team context, which is what the stat is used for

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:32 (ten years ago) link

god matt fine think of PER as like a per-possession amount of value created, you're just caviling over the definition of "efficiency" because you think it implies a personal denominator rather than one in a team context, which is what the stat is used for

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:32 PM (51 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

his ORTG was higher in 10-11.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:34 (ten years ago) link

matt there are gonna be warm ups or something with twitter handles on them this very night and instead for the millionth time youre going to pretend you dont know why usage might be worth considering when evaluating players, your priorities are all out of wack

― lag∞n, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:27 PM (20 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

usage is totally worth considering, which is why it was obvious Afflalo was really efficient player because of how well he played with low usage!

― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, December 8, 2013 6:30 PM (1 minute ago)

right and the point is per-shot "efficiency" does not tell the whole story about how valuable a player is or else we'd just use TS% or something, being able to create offense and do so ~~~efficiently~~~ is important

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:34 (ten years ago) link

i don't really buy O/DRTG too much, it's such a lineup dependent stat

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:35 (ten years ago) link

Impressive use of the word cavil. Nice

乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:35 (ten years ago) link

now obv there are huge problems with PER, for one thing it essentially ignores defense that isn't steals/blocks, and is probably based on old data since hollinger hasn't updated it in a while i don't think, but it's a useful go-to stat for the things that do show up in the box score

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:37 (ten years ago) link

overall nice argument by kev there excellent defense of efficiency in per

lag∞n, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:37 (ten years ago) link

cavil is a cool word that i try to use a lot thx

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:39 (ten years ago) link

right and the point is per-shot "efficiency" does not tell the whole story about how valuable a player is or else we'd just use TS% or something, being able to create offense and do so ~~~efficiently~~~ is important

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:34 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

but he's not doing it any more efficiently than he did in Denver. He created offense a ton in Denver too; his style of play hasn't changed, just his usage rate. The turnovers have doubled (and the turnover rate has increased), his ppp is lower, his TS% is lower, but somehow he's twice as good.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:39 (ten years ago) link

What Hollinger did is he realized that in the real world it's harder to be efficient when your usage goes up, so he adjusted things to compensate for it. But he overcompensated.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:42 (ten years ago) link

his assist%, rebound%, and free throw rates are all career highs, the turnovers have barely changed, and his ts% is right about at his career high with denver. and yes, the usage is way up. the picture those numbers paint is obvious, which is that instead of being a nice role player, he's a first option now, and is doing really well at it

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:46 (ten years ago) link

What Hollinger did is he realized that in the real world it's harder to be efficient when your usage goes up, so he adjusted things to compensate for it. But he overcompensated.

― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, December 8, 2013 6:42 PM (3 minutes ago)

i've heard people say things like this but i've never actually seen the evidence for it. but again as i've been saying, it's clearly BETTER -- all else being equal -- to be a 58% ts% player with a usage of 30 than it is to be someone like tyson chandler, who has something like a 70% ts% but like a 14% usage

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:49 (ten years ago) link

his assist%, rebound%, and free throw rates are all career highs, the turnovers have barely changed, and his ts% is right about at his career high with denver. and yes, the usage is way up. the picture those numbers paint is obvious, which is that instead of being a nice role player, he's a first option now, and is doing really well at it

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:46 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

rebound% isn't a career high, FTR is third highest.

Matt Armstrong, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:50 (ten years ago) link

i mean it's just LESS IMPORTANT to maintain excellent efficiency as your usage continues to climb, every high value shot you take continues to provide marginal value over what an average teammate would have provided with that same shot

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:52 (ten years ago) link

hm what was that word again CAVILING

clearly this is the year he's put everything together, with career highs or near-career highs in 3pt rate, FT rate, rebound rate, assist rate, TS%, etc. and he's doing this as a much higher percentage of his team's overall possessions which is very valuable

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:55 (ten years ago) link

Aren't both of you arguing for the end conclusion that he is an amazing player

乒乓, Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:57 (ten years ago) link

beautiful crab dribble there from bron

k3vin k., Sunday, 8 December 2013 23:59 (ten years ago) link

it's not even close to his career high in 3 point rate. It's below his career average!

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:00 (ten years ago) link

are you even looking at the stats you should they're pretty interesting

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:00 (ten years ago) link

GOD MATT

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:00 (ten years ago) link

Aren't both of you arguing for the end conclusion that he is an amazing player

― 乒乓, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well I'm arguing that he was a good player back when PER said he was below average.

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:05 (ten years ago) link

Ah okay

Lol @ stathead telling the other stathead to go look at some stats

乒乓, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:06 (ten years ago) link

well yeah everyone agrees PER just doesn't do defense, someone like afflalo/thabo who are plus defenders but tertiary offensive players just aren't going to be as recognized by that metric. but that's an issue about PER's defensive weaknesses, not how it measures offense

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:11 (ten years ago) link

and obviously PER has plenty of offensive shortcomings as well, it's a stat that originated in the early days of analytics and doesn't incorporate any more advanced play by play data etc. but no one has really developed a good one-number stat that incorporates that stuff, like WAR in baseball. no one really understands how to interpret this synergy/sportVU stuff yet

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:14 (ten years ago) link

At the end of the day: he's basically doing what he did in 10-11, only with way higher usage. His PER is up about 60% and his usage is up about 65%.

The way it's set up you have to play like a demigod in order to have a good/great PER as a guard with low usage and that doesn't really make sense if you're trying to be objective about a player's production. He doesn't become a worse player because he doesn't touch the ball; he should get credit for what he does when he does get it.

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:17 (ten years ago) link

anyway, we can all agree that this is one time Masai fucked up

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:20 (ten years ago) link

we both loved the deal at the time, it's not masai's fault iggy walked really

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:21 (ten years ago) link

anyway rudy gay just got traded to the kings

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:22 (ten years ago) link

Hahahahah

乒乓, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:25 (ten years ago) link

Rudy and Demarcus on the same team

Wow

乒乓, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:25 (ten years ago) link

Durant and Westbrook goin ham on pacers early btw

z-time champion (agent hibachi), Monday, 9 December 2013 00:25 (ten years ago) link

Huh, thought you were joking about Gay / Kings.

Call me Shitmael (CompuPost), Monday, 9 December 2013 00:30 (ten years ago) link

"The Raptors will receive John Salmons, Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson and Chuck Hayes, according to sources."

ISAIAH UNLEASHED

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:31 (ten years ago) link

Demarcus ORPG is gonna go up

乒乓, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:32 (ten years ago) link

my first thought too haha xp

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:32 (ten years ago) link

Is Greivous having a good season? Haven't been paying attention.

Call me Shitmael (CompuPost), Monday, 9 December 2013 00:33 (ten years ago) link

Wonder how all this will affect Afflalo's usage%.

Call me Shitmael (CompuPost), Monday, 9 December 2013 00:33 (ten years ago) link

greivus had an insane year last year but has just been getting in the way of thomas in sacto

k3vin k., Monday, 9 December 2013 00:34 (ten years ago) link

I think the logic of Greivis being the starter made a lot of sense and he hasn't been awful, but IT2 has just been so good. I saw an interview with Mike Malone where they asked him if he was considering starting Thomas and he had to really think about an answer.

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:36 (ten years ago) link

Thomas a 2011 pick though

Matt Armstrong, Monday, 9 December 2013 00:37 (ten years ago) link

Guys watching detroit's offense gives me like a low grade buzzing headache and I start to feel like I might pass out, is this normal

z-time champion (agent hibachi), Monday, 9 December 2013 00:40 (ten years ago) link


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