in these, the waning days of stern: 2013-2014 NBA regular season thread (part 1)

cavil is a cool word that i try to use a lot thx

right and the point is per-shot "efficiency" does not tell the whole story about how valuable a player is or else we'd just use TS% or something, being able to create offense and do so ~~~efficiently~~~ is important

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:34 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

but he's not doing it any more efficiently than he did in Denver. He created offense a ton in Denver too; his style of play hasn't changed, just his usage rate. The turnovers have doubled (and the turnover rate has increased), his ppp is lower, his TS% is lower, but somehow he's twice as good.

What Hollinger did is he realized that in the real world it's harder to be efficient when your usage goes up, so he adjusted things to compensate for it. But he overcompensated.

his assist%, rebound%, and free throw rates are all career highs, the turnovers have barely changed, and his ts% is right about at his career high with denver. and yes, the usage is way up. the picture those numbers paint is obvious, which is that instead of being a nice role player, he's a first option now, and is doing really well at it

What Hollinger did is he realized that in the real world it's harder to be efficient when your usage goes up, so he adjusted things to compensate for it. But he overcompensated.

― Matt Armstrong, Sunday, December 8, 2013 6:42 PM (3 minutes ago)

i've heard people say things like this but i've never actually seen the evidence for it. but again as i've been saying, it's clearly BETTER -- all else being equal -- to be a 58% ts% player with a usage of 30 than it is to be someone like tyson chandler, who has something like a 70% ts% but like a 14% usage

his assist%, rebound%, and free throw rates are all career highs, the turnovers have barely changed, and his ts% is right about at his career high with denver. and yes, the usage is way up. the picture those numbers paint is obvious, which is that instead of being a nice role player, he's a first option now, and is doing really well at it

― k3vin k., Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:46 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

rebound% isn't a career high, FTR is third highest.

i mean it's just LESS IMPORTANT to maintain excellent efficiency as your usage continues to climb, every high value shot you take continues to provide marginal value over what an average teammate would have provided with that same shot

hm what was that word again CAVILING

clearly this is the year he's put everything together, with career highs or near-career highs in 3pt rate, FT rate, rebound rate, assist rate, TS%, etc. and he's doing this as a much higher percentage of his team's overall possessions which is very valuable

Aren't both of you arguing for the end conclusion that he is an amazing player

beautiful crab dribble there from bron

it's not even close to his career high in 3 point rate. It's below his career average!

are you even looking at the stats you should they're pretty interesting

GOD MATT

Aren't both of you arguing for the end conclusion that he is an amazing player

― 乒乓, Sunday, December 8, 2013 11:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well I'm arguing that he was a good player back when PER said he was below average.

Ah okay

Lol @ stathead telling the other stathead to go look at some stats

well yeah everyone agrees PER just doesn't do defense, someone like afflalo/thabo who are plus defenders but tertiary offensive players just aren't going to be as recognized by that metric. but that's an issue about PER's defensive weaknesses, not how it measures offense

and obviously PER has plenty of offensive shortcomings as well, it's a stat that originated in the early days of analytics and doesn't incorporate any more advanced play by play data etc. but no one has really developed a good one-number stat that incorporates that stuff, like WAR in baseball. no one really understands how to interpret this synergy/sportVU stuff yet

At the end of the day: he's basically doing what he did in 10-11, only with way higher usage. His PER is up about 60% and his usage is up about 65%.

The way it's set up you have to play like a demigod in order to have a good/great PER as a guard with low usage and that doesn't really make sense if you're trying to be objective about a player's production. He doesn't become a worse player because he doesn't touch the ball; he should get credit for what he does when he does get it.

anyway, we can all agree that this is one time Masai fucked up

we both loved the deal at the time, it's not masai's fault iggy walked really

anyway rudy gay just got traded to the kings

Hahahahah

Rudy and Demarcus on the same team

Wow

Durant and Westbrook goin ham on pacers early btw

Huh, thought you were joking about Gay / Kings.

"The Raptors will receive John Salmons, Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson and Chuck Hayes, according to sources."

ISAIAH UNLEASHED

Demarcus ORPG is gonna go up

my first thought too haha xp

Is Greivous having a good season? Haven't been paying attention.

Wonder how all this will affect Afflalo's usage%.

greivus had an insane year last year but has just been getting in the way of thomas in sacto

I think the logic of Greivis being the starter made a lot of sense and he hasn't been awful, but IT2 has just been so good. I saw an interview with Mike Malone where they asked him if he was considering starting Thomas and he had to really think about an answer.

Thomas a 2011 pick though

Guys watching detroit's offense gives me like a low grade buzzing headache and I start to feel like I might pass out, is this normal

isiah unleashed to watch rudy gay dribble around for 10 seconds every possession

lol Knicks got pounded, yo brad Stevens u suck at tanking

What if he's a super genius and this garbage celtics roster is like fourth in the east with rondo back?

Yuck, probably the Pacers worst 1+ quarters of the season right now. Thunder wilin out.

in the end this trade is pretty fucking boring. i really thought a desperate team was gonna bite on rudy.

i'm not sure exactly why the kings are doing this tho. on the one hand i don't think rudy will opt into his deal if it means another year in sacramento. on the other hand, why would you trade for a 75% season from rudy gay?

Sometimes Rondo and Stevens look like Lin and Parsons on the sideline, could really bode well if Celtics hit jackpot in the draft next few years and Green doesn't regress back to normal Jeff Green.

chuck hayes is due 6m next year so it's poison both ways really

the raptors are a seriously fucked up team

rudy has a 19 million dollar player option, he'd be an idiot to opt out

Can somebody make a case for Masai

What's he doing

Hahaha Thunder just passed the ball off teammate's head on consecutive passes.

Can somebody make a case for Masai

What's he doing

― 乒乓, Monday, December 9, 2013 12:56 AM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

in Toronto? What is he supposed to do, really? They have to take their lumps while he clears cap.

getting picks for Bargnani was good

remember last year when no one thought igoudala was gonna opt out?

rudy will opt out and get 4/48 or something. it's a no brainer. and there's no way he wants to spend a season and a half in sacramento.

i mean, in addition to the stuff with denver, partic the melo and iggy trades, he just dumped the contracts of barnita and gay ahead of supposedly one of the most loaded drafts ever. when you're a small-market GM you cant do much better than that

rudy will opt out and get 4/48 or something. it's a no brainer. and there's no way he wants to spend a season and a half in sacramento.

― le goon (J0rdan S.), Sunday, December 8, 2013 8:05 PM (21 seconds ago)

is sacramento a bad city or something? never been to cali idk

but if it's just because they're a bad team...no good team is paying him 12 a year. this is your life now, rudy gay

Can somebody make a case for Masai

What's he doing

― 乒乓, Monday, December 9, 2013 12:56 AM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

in Toronto? What is he supposed to do, really? They have to take their lumps while he clears cap.

Yeah I understand but the trade didn't seem like it cleared that much cap, unless he knew for sure that Rudy was gonna take the option?