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Giant Killers in the NBA playoffs
Kevin Pelton [ARCHIVE]
ESPN Insider | April 18, 2014
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
Will the Wizards' tough brand of defense lead them to a playoff upset?
There are no true Cinderellas in the NBA playoffs, no No. 16 seeds. Every team -- even the Hawks -- has a legitimate chance to win a series, despite the favorite-friendly, seven-game series format that runs throughout the postseason. Still, there are upsets, and with that in mind, we can borrow from the principles our Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating have applied to the NCAA tournament to identify Giant Killers.
Using data from the last 11 postseasons -- which marks since the league expanded the opening round from best-of-five to best-of-seven -- I looked at both favorites and underdogs to try to identify factors, besides overall team ability, that help predict an upset.
Here's a look at indicators of both Giant Killers and teams most prone to suffer upsets, followed by the top indicator and which first-round series it most closely applies to.
Indicators of strong Killers
Elite defenses (This year: Charlotte Bobcats, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards)
While the makeup of a Goliath doesn't seem to matter, defensive-minded Davids have been more likely to knock off higher seeds. The three best defenses relative to league average without home-court advantage (the 2012 Boston Celtics, 2013 Memphis Grizzlies and 2012 Philadelphia 76ers) all won their first series, while the worst 14 defenses were all eliminated.
That's good news for several defense-first underdogs in this year's opening round. Four of the NBA's top 10 defenses are lower seeds. However, the best of the group (the Warriors, who ranked third) may not be able to play at that level in the playoffs without center Andrew Bogut, who's sidelined with a fractured rib.
Teams that hack opponents (This year: Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks)
Oddly, the other trait that teams that pull first-round upsets have tended to share is a propensity for putting the opposition at the free throw line. Underdogs that foul at an above-average rate have won 29.5 percent of their first-round series, compared with 15.9 percent of their foul-free peers. It's possible that a looser whistle in the playoffs works to their benefit.
The Nets and Mavericks are the two lower-seeded teams this season who ranked in the league's top 10 in free throws allowed per field goal attempt. In particular, this trend may help Brooklyn's Kevin Garnett, who averaged a career-high 4.0 fouls per 36 minutes during the regular season.
Indicators of vulnerable Giants
Inexperienced playoff teams (This year: Toronto Raptors)
Experience matters for underdogs, too, but the lack of it has proved an especially important indicator of an opening-round upset. Of the 10 higher-seeded teams with the least playoff experience (measured by career playoff minutes), five were bounced from the playoffs in the opening round. And that trend can't entirely be explained away by the fact that the most experienced teams are usually the best ones.
That could spell trouble for Toronto, whose 2,507 combined playoff minutes are the fourth-lowest total for a favorite in the last 12 seasons. Two of the three with fewer (the 2005 Seattle SuperSonics, 2007 Raptors and 2009 Portland Trail Blazers) lost in the first round. Add in Brooklyn's experience (19,487 combined playoff minutes, which ranks fourth this season), and Toronto might be vulnerable. Still, as my prior research on playoff experience has shown, it's easy to overrate the importance of inexperience. It increases the likelihood of an upset but doesn't make it an inevitability.
Teams that don't get to the free throw line (This year: San Antonio Spurs)
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Not getting to the line enough could pose a problem for San Antonio in postseason play.
Free throw rate is also an important indicator for favorites, but in the opposite direction. Not getting to the line on offense can signal impending doom. The top quartile of favorites in terms of free throw attempts per field goal attempt have won 86.4 percent of their first-round series compared with just 68.2 percent of teams in the bottom quartile. This might serve as an indicator of consistency, since free throw attempts tend to be more consistent night-to-night than shooting from the field.
This year, only one higher seed -- the Spurs, who ranked 27th -- was even below average in terms of free throw rate. And San Antonio will probably be OK despite this weakness.
Teams that don't defend the 3-point line (This year: None)
The single strongest statistical indicator of vulnerability to upsets in the first round, adjusting for team quality, has been opponent 3-point percentage. That's surprising to the extent that this statistic tends to fluctuate from season to season. Nonetheless, favorites that are above average at defending the 3-point line have won an astounding 88.6 percent of their first-round matchups, while below-average 3-point defenses have won 65.9 percent of the time. And get this -- all three victims of first-round upsets last year (Brooklyn, Denver and the L.A. Clippers) were below average in 3-point defense.
Now that I've gotten you all excited about this fool-proof trend, the bad news: No Goliath really qualifies this season. The Miami Heat (36.2 percent) were a hair below league average (36.0 percent) in 3-point defense, but not enough to truly consider it a weakness. The Oklahoma City Thunder (35.8 percent) is the only other favorite that ranked outside the top 10 in opponent 3-point percentage.
The most overwhelming indicator
Regular-season head-to-head series win (This year: Washington Wizards)
There's one last statistic that predicts first-round upsets so well I had to save it for the end: regular-season results between the two teams. Lower seeds that won the season series outright have gone 10-9 during first-round series. Meanwhile, lower seeds that lost the season series are a staggering 4-46. (For completeness, lower seeds that split the season series are 6-13.)
A handful of underdogs (Atlanta, Brooklyn and Golden State) split the season series, but only one lower seed actually won it outright -- the Wizards, who took two out of three meetings with the Chicago Bulls. While, as usual, there are caveats -- both Washington wins came shortly after the Luol Deng trade, and Chicago won the most recent meeting by 18 at the Verizon Center -- if you're looking for a likely upset, Wizards-Bulls is a good place to start.
― lag∞n, Friday, 18 April 2014 16:30 (ten years ago) link