Hot Stove League 2014-15

From the philly.com article about the Amaro way:

Amaro identified Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Darin Ruf, Ben Revere, and Domonic Brown as players to build around.

2014 domonic brown had negative the WAR 2013 domonic brown accrued

one good month is all you need apparently

defensive awards flyin' already, i can't believe Mr Awards thread hasn't leapt on em

i thought the phillies were already trying to get rid of domonic

hey morbs can you please leave the awards talk out of the hot stove thread thanks

i love darin ruf but lol he accrued 0.3 war in his 12-game debut in 2012, is dead even in 125 games since, and will be 29 next july

hey Revere got a 3.0 WAR season!

2 seasons ago.

with the Twins.

Ranking the free agents

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/10/30/7088233/2014-2015-mlb-free-agent-power-ranking

So no chance of Panda staying? The Giants have pretty deep pockets.

They're already on the hook for $127 million next year with 5 FAs and unlikely to go into luxury tax territory.

gabe kapler just publicly tweeted something meant to be a direct message (and instantly deleted, but not fast enough) -- apparently he's joining the dodgers front office

also the yankees hired eric chavez as a scout

DON KELLY OUTRIGHTED

was hoping kapler would catch on as an analyst somewhere but i guess FO jobs are more coveted

renteria officially canned

yankees will reportedly extend a qualifying offer to david robertson on monday

thus a (quite good!) reliever who posted 1.2 war in 2014 will make at least $15.3m next year

following that logic, russell martin should get $50m

I got a question about WAR towards team win performance. Looking at Pirates according to Baseball Reference they have a total of 30.1 WAR, should this number be considered that the club would end up 30 over .500 (or about 96 wins)?

no, because a team full of pure replacement level players would not be a .500 level team. i forget what the baseline figure is.

no, the basis for replacement level is somewhere around 42-47 wins for fWAR at least, not sure where it is for rWAR but their replacement level is different i think

according to wikipedia:

a team of replacement-level players is expected to have a .320 winning percentage, or 52 wins in a 162 game season.

i know every year FG does their WAR predictions everyone always tries to add up the totals and add it onto a set figure and every year podhorzer or whoever does it yells at them cause that's not how it works

rockies pick up option for latroy hawkins' age-42 season

The Rockies Way

nick markakis and billy butler both got club options declined, FAs

Adam Lind (Jays) for Estrada (Brewers).

http://www.tsn.ca/blue-jays-trade-1b-dh-lind-to-brewers-for-rhp-estrada-1.122276

always disappointed that adam lind isn't jose's son

not sure what to think of the deal.

lind is a good addition for any team that can properly use him in a platoon (164 wRC+ vs righties in 2014, -36 vs lefties, and a 150 wRC+ against righties in 2013). he probably sucks as a fielder though.

Estrada was almost useless tho.

always disappointed that marco estrada isn't erik's son

Paul Molitor, new Twins manager

!

lind gets hurt all the time also

The Jays' biggest problems last year were pitching depth and too many guys getting hurt, so the Lind deal helps them on both counts.

Toronto's offering $15 million to Cabrera. That's the kind of case where I'm completely detached from the "realities of the marketplace." Melky Cabrera seems eminently replaceable to me, but maybe $15 million isn't especially noteworthy anymore, I don't know.

A friend writes:

Would prefer to see MLB consider something like reorganizing each league’s post-season carnival into a three-level playoff where the team with the best regular-season record gets a double bye. (Three division winners and two WC teams seeded as in the current system: Team 5 plays Team 2 and Team 4 plays Team 3 in best-of-three series; winners play each other in a best-of-five; winner plays Team 1 in a best-of-seven LCS.) This would produce the same number of games (i.e. filthy lucre) as the current set-up and WC teams could still get hot and run the table. But the best team in each league would get a substantially bigger advantage for prevailing in the April-September marathon. No doubt some of them would end up on the wrong side of the rest vs. rust dilemma. But that’s okay. And the post-season reorganization could be made even more elegant by – but not depend on -- returning to a balanced regular-season schedule and reducing/eliminating interleague games. So the Lords of Baseball wouldn’t have to repudiate Seligism wholesale in order to re-distinguish the structure of their postseason from the NBA’s.

What do you guys think?

Team 5 plays Team 2 and Team 4 plays Team 3 in best-of-three series

getting the second best record in the league (team 2, right?) and getting rewarded with a 3-game series (a little less of a coinflip than a single-game wildcard, but still essentially a coinflip) doesn't seem right

Hmm yes

- dislike team 1 getting two weeks off. 'this aint football; we do this every day'
- raises the stakes for earning best record but vastly diminishes the worth of winning yr division, so you get one extra interesting race at the expense of losing two
- i think a better way of rewarding team 1 would be to let it play all of its series vs the wild card-winner at home (but i don't really like that either)

Be better if there were two divisions again. Two division winners, four wild cards. Winners get bye, wild cards play best of three. But it reduces # of games and anything more than a three game series means long layoff for division winner...

If we are talking about how to do major changes, this is my idea: i'd expand in two cities (Montreal! and another one, like Portland?) and go back to 4 divisions of 8, scrap the WC.

2 leagues, 15 teams each, winners go to the world series

I don't know, having no playoffs can also favor rich dynasties, not to say that it hasn't happened in the recent past (I'd argue the Giants are just a playoff dynasty, regular season results suggest so) but what I want to make sure we steer clear from the English Premier League's culture in which only the 5 richest club end up with a shot at the title and in the end Manchester United always win, same for Spain and France in the coming years. Upsets are cool, real cool, and they usually happen in the DLS and CLS.

Also I'm not sure, and this is a good debate to have, that the Angels were better than the Royals and Orioles.

i wasn't being serious or anything

just important to remember that baseball now isn't what baseball used to be before the LCS, and i think every suggestion made here is hearkening back to that environment, back when teams could win a hundred games and miss out on the playoffs etc. giving the teams with the best record in the league that much of an advantage is definitely a throwback to that. much as i hate selig i do think the playoff structure now is about as good as it can be given the modern american sports environment. it's still harder to get into the MLB playoffs than in NFL/NBA/NHL.

but it's attractive thinking about those old days when winning the pennant meant getting the most wins in your league and that really meant something, and the world series meant those teams sort of carried their respective leagues on their backs. i envy my dad for still being in his mindset where he'll always root for the AL because he's an AL fan, and the playoff structure probably had more to do with that than the lack of free agency.

please forgive the complete incomprehensibility of that post, DST has made me dizzy

I totally understand and agree making the playoff in the NHL is waaay too easy, I don't follow the NFL and NBA so I can't compare (the NBA seem to have a very similar structure to the NHL).

Be better if there were two divisions again. Two division winners, four wild cards. Winners get bye, wild cards play best of three.

I like this idea! If there are no off-days during the wild card series then the division winners would have only a five day layoff.

I'd also propose that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals be declared ineligible every few years, on a rotating basis--the Yankees and Red Sox for being too rich, the Cardinals for being too smart. Every five or six years, say. You don't want to be unfair.

this is not Hot Stove material; also none of your hoary schemes will be enacted.

i don't think 16 nhl teams (out of 30) is too many -- it used to be 16 out of many fewer -- because the playoffs are ~awesome~. the regular season should be shorter, tho, since it matters so much less

baseball is different from these other sports because of the importance of pitchers and their inability to play every game. and yeah there are too many 'old firms' in european football, but relegation and qualifying for champions leagues add some interest

I like this idea! If there are no off-days during the wild card series then the division winners would have only a five day layoff.

Would you dictate no days off for travel?

Warriors won't win; NBA is fixed

Most improved positions of the year: Cards RF, return of Prince, no Jeter

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/most-improved-positions-dodgers-cardinals-yankees-mariners-padres-reds-rangers-021715

giants are gonna start lincecum again...

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

He worked with his father again, apparently he is quite confident.

sounds like a plan until it's not

if they're stubborn about it, a step close to wild-card Mets

Barves apparently have 'strong interest' in Jackie Bradley Jr.

rating farewell-ad sincerity

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-farewell-ad-sincerity-ranking-joe-maddon-max-scherzer-nick-markakis/

shoulder surgery for jurickson profar, might miss his second straight season

from BP chat:

AC (TX): Is there a deal that is going very under-discussed, that you feel deserves more attention? Maybe a change of scenery that you feel will do wonders?

R.J. Anderson: Someone whose opinion I trust and who works in a well-regarded FO is convinced Brett Lawrie could outplay Josh Donaldson this season. I'm not there yet (and I probably won't get there until after it happens), but that's the deal that popped to mind reading the second part of this question.

As for the first part, I'd say the Yankees' acquisition of Justin Wilson. He's a very talented pitcher who could be a monster near the back of their bullpen. Add him to Betances, Miller, Carpenter, etc. and you have the makings of a nasty group.

bochy's in the hospital getting stents put in his ticker. hope it goes well

What THE FUCK

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/gregg-zaun-says-physical-abuse-from-cal-ripken-jr--kept-him-in-line-071143606.html

not surprising, but ugh anyway

meanwhile, RIP B.J. Upton

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- B.J. Upton has opted to appease those Braves fans who have said they "don't want to see B.J." in the lineup again this year. Now, the veteran outfielder can only hope that he is capable of altering his production as easily as he has the name he will use this season.

Upton's representatives confirmed that he will go by his birth name, Melvin Upton Jr., this upcoming season. The 30-year-old outfielder has long gone by the name B.J., which is short for Bossman (his father Manny's nickname) Jr.

You figure Billy was down for whatever whenever -- even now, probably -- but Cal?

i've never been a stannish defender of cal but i'm p sure every team was doing the violent hazing thing back then

cal probably got the same treatment from zaun's uncle back in the day

also lol cal put out an anti-bullying book jfc

guys this is not hot stove unless there was fire in the hazing

plz keep off-topic complaints in the detrius thread

@JesseSanchezMLB
BREAKING - Source: Cuban INF prospect Yoan Moncada agrees with Red Sox on a deal in $30 million range. Check http://MLB.com

Jesse Spector @jessespector
I get the Red Sox signing Yoan Moncada. Always want talent. I don’t quite get Yoan Moncada signing with the Red Sox. His path isn’t clear.

whoa, ok

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/padres-have-completed-trade.html

Craig Kimbrel and Melvin (AKA BJ) Upton to Padres for Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler, and Jordan Paroubeck

the barves will also get the 41st pick in the draft, apparently

zowie

seems like a decent deal for both sides, maybe? padres get a dominant closer and a BJ, barves get to dump upton's salary, get a few guys who can be traded later, and a couple prospects?

pads felt guilty tearing a family apart

xp - Yeah, beyond the initial emotional "Kimbrel noooooooooo, come back" shock, this seems win-win. I don't know the Padres' depth chart -- will Melvin start or be an expensive bench piece?

iirc the padres still have a few dozen OFs, even after quentin and maybin

Not worth starting the in-season thread for but goddamn, everything John Kruk says during the broadcast is nails on a chalkboard.

someone should start it!

I mean Kemp might break off at both knees like the t-1000 so who the fuck knows. kimbrel seems like the "luxury" move that people were talking about re the astros not needing a closer, but not in such dire terms -- I do feel like we are past peak closer Maybe some recency bias in favor of SF but you still have to make it past them and LAD afaict

"This latest move has improved the odds of the Padres winning the World Series, going from 25/1 to 20/1, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook."

idk man...

Law says Barves win

trade makes sense for both teams (especially barves), but if i were one of the players i'd be annoyed -- they had six months to make this trade and now i've gotta move across the country on opening day?

yeah the timing seems awful for the players