Serial - the podcast *spoilers*

I really agree with Hurting's point from upthread - there's tons of weeds to get lost in with this story but the big over-riding question now is why the fuck should we believe Jay would make up a big elaborate story to frame Adnan? A story that makes him an accessory to a murder. And if the answer is he lied because killed Hae, why the fuck would Jay kill Hae?

I don't think I could convict Adnan if I were on a jury and the podcast through ep 9 was the sum of the case, but I also still feel like Adnan did it is the most likely explanation, with inconsistencies in Jay's story probably coming down to him minimizing his own role/flaws in his memory. Everyone in this story seems to smoke weed all the time, so that would explain a lot too.

yeah, it does not seem like a leap at all to accept that Adnan probably should not have been convicted based on what we know of the case against him... and to believe he seems like he had the most likely motive, the opportunity to commit the crime, and a semi-reliable witness saying he did it. Not enough to put someone away for life, but not nothing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/business/media/serial-podcastings-first-breakout-hit-sets-stage-for-more.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fthe-media-equation&contentCollection=business&action=click&module=NextInCollection®ion=Footer&pgtype=article

I don't really get the guilty-but-shouldn't-have-been-convicted- argument. Lack of every single nail being hammered down in a case doesn't really add up to reasonable doubt. It would overturn nearly every conviction that went to a jury, as there are always details that don't fit. If I were on a jury and I thought a guy had murdered someone, I don't think "Some stoner chick doesn't remember seeing a pay phone when she was shoplifting from Best Buy 15 years ago," would cause me to vote not guilty.

Someone on Reddit (yes i know) presented this (completely fictional) scenario, which helped me be able to accept the proposed "infidelity" motivation for Jay, or the way the situation could have escalated very fast:

Hae approaches Adnan's car, realizes Jay is driving.

HAE: If you don't tell Stephanie that you cheated, I will.

JAY: If you do, I'll tell your parents you've been lying to them for years and having sex.

HAE: Then I'll just go to the police and tell them you're a dealer.

Would only be believable to me if Hae was good friends with Stephanie, which I don't remember being the case but maybe I'm forgetting something. Also is there any reason to think Jay was cheating on Stephanie?

There was no evidence in this case. There was one witness, and his story was only corroborated by the phone records if you overlook all the places where it doesn't. I don't think this is a case where there is just stuff that does not add up, this is a weak case. Also, don't think Adnan did it.

Well, maybe not *only* believable if they were friends, but again, no evidence for that theory yet afaik.

It's legitimately absurd to say that there was "no evidence" in this case.

What was it, then? Phone records. A fingerprint on a book Adnan could have seen many times before.

The testimony of Jay is extremely strong evidence even if not everything matches. Saying it's "only one witness" like it was just some random eyewitness who saw a flash of Adnan's face in a car is really missing the point. Again, maybe not enough to convict, but you need a pretty good story to explain it away.

The difference between Serial and some of the documentaries that have led to exonerations is that the others have posited a plausible alternative suspect as well as poking holes in the state's case. How horrible for Hae's family if Serial actually got her murderer sprung on technical issues. Not that that will happen.

but it might, idk, i think in that entertainment weekly interview w/ Koenig she again mentions the innocence proj and that it will factor in again in this narrative

I don't consider one witness to be enough evidence, especially not one who took a plea deal. Like, that's just a princip. I would never ever vote to convict in a case that hinged on a single witness who got out of prison himself by testifying. And that short segment where they interview a juror saying 'he had to go to prison himself' 'no he didn't' 'huh...' That was one of the most horifying details yet.

Also, I think 15 years is long enough in prison for anything, especially for an underage convict. But then again, I'm European.

15 years is also a long time to be dead at someone's hands. (I'm American btw)

I think Adnan probably did it, but if I were on a jury and was presented with the evidence described in this podcast, there is no way I would feel confident enough about Adnan's guilt to actually vote for a guilty verdict.

from what I've heard about the Innocent Project's work on this case (SPOILERS): They're mainly focusing on DNA tests of the rape kit--running it against a serial killer who was active at the time, and another guy. If either of those suspects turn up as hits then maybe Adnan will get another trial. If not, I don't know how his case gets relitigated.

Lots of criminal convictions necessarily hinge on the testimony of one witness. Again, big difference between "one witness" who sees something from the sidelines and "one witness" who knows the perpetrator and has a long, detailed account.

The plea deal taint is a problem, but again, there are limited possibilities: either (1) Jay played exactly the role he said and got himself exonerated for giving up Adnan, (2) Jay was more of a co-conspirator with Adnan and massaged things to make it sound like it was only Adnan, or (3) Jay is covering up for himself and/or someone else by creating a very elaborate fabrication that happens to match up with a lot of details in spite of other inconsistencies. It requires Jay alone and/or with some unknown third person murdering someone Jay doesn't have much connection to while just happening to also have Adnan's car and phone. And I would assume that police investigated Jay as well, although the show hasn't really gone into this from what I remember. And I doubt the police were like "oh, we have this other dude who might have killed her, and he even has a rap sheet and is a pot dealer, but who cares lets just get the popular kid based on a story that might be made up and not even look into the other guy."

Like I said, I don't know if I could convict, but if it's just a matter of weighing more and less likely explanations so far, I still think Adnan is the more likely person.

XP that would require Jay framing his friend to save a serial killer (or hallucinating the story or something)

I think there's a 4th possibility that's far more likely: Jay did help Adnan hide the body, and initially lied about it to the cops. They kept pressing him so that he had to admit certain things, and after the story started to come out, they continued to get him to add thingsthat fit their preferred timeline and theories.

If Jay had been forced into helping a serial killer getting rid of the body, why on earth would it be more weird that he also felt forced into concocting a lie to further help a serial killer? Like, I don't get that.

And there was a witness giving Adnan an alibi. But we all just ignore that. When really, the whole corroboration of Jays story also hinges on a single witness, Nysha.

If Jay had been forced into helping a serial killer getting rid of the body, why on earth would it be more weird that he also felt forced into concocting a lie to further help a serial killer? Like, I don't get that.

lol

And Nysha's story is factually incorrect. Mentions a job that Jay didn't have at the time. And the prosecution ignores that. Like, it's the smoking gun, and it isn't true.

from what I've heard about the Innocent Project's work on this case (SPOILERS): They're mainly focusing on DNA tests of the rape kit--running it against a serial killer who was active at the time, and another guy

wait - what rape kit? i don't remember there being any mention of evidence she was raped - am I just forgetting that?

She wasn't, but they had to do one anyway

So Jay just randomly called Adnan's friend, who Jay wasn't friends with, on Adnan's phone, while in the midst of murdering or covering up the murder of Adnan's ex? Probably to help the serial killer frame Adnan.

butt dial

oops wrong thread

No, Jay called all his friends on Adnan's phone, while helping Adnan bury his girlfriend, but then Adnan wanted to be sure that people knew it was him, so he called Nysha also.

Like, Adnan planned the perfect murder, but then decided he had to give the prosecution proof that he did it, and called a person that Jay didn't know.

Frederik, your ironical explanation assumes that Adnan, a high school student in the 90s, had an understanding of how phone record evidence could be used against him, whereas mine assumes that a serial killer forced a random kid to frame his friend and has managed to keep him quiet about it for fifteen years. Which seems more likely?

The one thing Adnan has going for him is that it seems unlikely that a murderer would involve his pot dealer in hiding the body. But everyone says that Adnan was gregarious so he maybe didn't want a bonding opportunity to go to waste.

Yeah and OTOH there's the "Jay was the kind of guy you'd ask for help with this kind of thing" possibility.

I think whatever the explanation, a lot of the weirdnesses of the story may boil down to "this is a bunch of stoned high school kids we're talking about."

jay did it for scooby snacks

Well, no, because, if they were just using his phone, why would all the calls except one be to Jay's friends? Why didn't Adnan call all his other friends?

And assaigning guilt doesn't work that way, taking two stories and figuring out which seems more likely. There is always a shitload of other possible stories that could be the case. Nysha could be wrong about which phone had an answering machine (she says 'not that number' at trial) The phone could have been not in Leakin Park and Jay could have been fed the entire story by the police - they get him after they get the phone records.

Jay led the cops to her car, though. How does he know where her car is if the cops just fed him the story?

And assaigning guilt doesn't work that way, taking two stories and figuring out which seems more likely.

Not really sure how many more different ways I can find to say "I wouldn't convict based on this, I just think it's more likely that Adnan did it."

And so far the alternate explanations sound downright ridiculous. The cops fed him the entire story?!

It happens more than you think. It's called a false confession.

The cops had the car first, lied about it - I think a bigger problem with that explanation is that Jenn led them to Jay, so... Also, I may hold a lower opinion of cops than most people.

And the thing is, I don't think it works to think if it was 'more likely' that Adnan did it. It's either likely or not likely. And imo, it's not likely, because that story does not make sense. That we haven't found the real story yet does not mean it's not there.

False confessions happen all the time. False confessions of the kind you are talking about here do not happen all the time.

I know cops are unreliable and definitely cook shit up, but that seems like a crazy level of conspiracy re: the car + Jay

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/12/09/the-interview-7

A growing number of scientists and legal scholars, though, have raised concerns about Reid-style interrogation. Of the three hundred and eleven people exonerated through post-conviction DNA testing, more than a quarter had given false confessions—including those convicted in such notorious cases as the Central Park Five. The extent of the problem is unknowable, because there’s no national database on wrongful convictions. But false confessions, which often lead to these convictions, are not rare, and experts say that Reid-style interrogations can produce them.

You are preaching to the choir waterface, but I don't think this is one of those situations.

ok

Also does the podcast suggest this was a Reid-style interrogation?

I have a degree in history, btw, I spent a year training source criticism, looking at shit like this and figuring out what stories worked and what stories didn't work. And Jays story does not work, imo. Though obviously, since we only look at stuff through the podcast, we aren't really can't really do source criticism anyway, so who cares.

But Jay had the car, Jay had the phone, Jay had reason to lie. Like, I believe Adnan over Jay.

Then why didn't the cops charge Jay with murder? Slam dunk according to you