Serial - the podcast *spoilers*

Just to be clear the alibi in disclosure is clearly fabricated because Adnan by his own account did not actually do the things it says he did in the disclosure (he did not attend school the entire day, he did not go straight home, etc). So to have witness either testify to him doing those things OR must have done those things because they would have noticed otherwise is a fabrication.

The original intro to the Intercept was an overstatement (as is Urick's in the interview) which is why they felt the need to issue a frankly pretty tepid correction. I don't find the "error"/"lie" whatever you are calling it terribly compelling.

Well we're really splitting hairs either way imo, but testifying that you "would have noticed otherwise" is a belief, so it's not necessarily a "fabrication" just because it's provably false.

But that's also why it's not very probative evidence in most situations. "Yeah I would have noticed if he wasn't there." Ok maybe if it was your husband, your son, your teacher, but not one of a big crowd of people you regularly see at a mosque.

Good points.

The alibi is clearly untrue (of course it's 'fabricated', in that Adnan says he can't remember what he did, so it's reconstructed), but Urick talks about 'fabricated evidence'. And none of the witnesses were going to testify to any of the untrue things, just what his 'regular attendence' was. None of the untrue things conflict with his 'regular attendence'.

It's really such an irrelevant point that the prosecutor might be mischaracterizing a hypothetical bit of evidence 15 years later

Deciding not to put on a bunch of witnesses who can't say that they remember seeing Adnan at the mosque for sure is proof that CG was maybe not that bad of a lawyer

As I've stated right above, I'm arguing that the problem is TheIntercept uses this mischaracterizing to puff up their own argument that the case wasn't weak at all. And now, on finding out the argument doesn't hold, they've 'corrected' the argument for Urick, instead of removing it.

Why should they remove it? They link to the doc and it's not irrelevant. It still supports his assertion (perhaps only slightly less strongly).

The fact remains that allibi witnesses did not materialize. This is the point that bears on weather the case was strong or weak not whether they were "fabricating"

No. They use the point to prop up the cellphone evidence - Urick speaks about Leakin Park especially - and it clearly no longer shows that.

Shows what? Huh?

That the cellphonerecords convinced Guiterrez to drop the 'fabricated evidence'.

The cellphone records probably convinced her in part not to try to respond with an alibi defense. Which again was probably a wise move since the alibi defense stunk.

I'm going to quote an awful lot of text, but this is what the introduction says about the case:

Urick didn’t have new facts to tell us—just as “Serial” didn’t uncover any new evidence. But his concise recounting of the main points in the case, without the podcast’s diversions and distractions, explains why the jury convicted Adnan after such brief deliberations.

The key evidence in the case were cellphone records that showed Syed’s movements on the night that Lee disappeared, and the testimony of Jay Wilds, a former classmate who confessed to police that he helped Syed dispose of Lee’s body. Wilds cooperated with police and prosecutors and after pleading guilty to being an accessory to murder after the fact, received two years probation.

Urick acknowledged that Jay had told conflicting versions of events. But he pointed out that even after five days on the stand, the defense was only able to challenge “collateral facts,” and not “material facts” directly related to the question of Syed’s guilt or innocence.

The focus on Jay’s changing story misses a larger point, Urick says, which is that criminal accomplices, by their nature, change their stories, and it is the job of the state to peel back the layers–and use corroborating evidence–to get to the truth. “We did not pick Jay to be Adnan’s accomplice,” Urick said. “Adnan picked Jay.”

Early on in the case, Urick said, the defense sent a disclosure to the state saying it had more than 80 witnesses who would testify about Adnan’s whereabouts on the day he allegedly killed Hae and buried her body. But when the defense found out that the cellphone records showed that Adnan was nowhere near the mosque, it killed that alibi and those witnesses were never called to testify at the trial, according to Urick.

Those same cellphone records also corroborated Jay’s testimony about Adnan’s movements on the night of the crime.

“Jay’s testimony by itself, would that have been proof beyond a reasonable doubt?” Urick asked rhetorically. “Probably not. Cellphone evidence by itself? Probably not.”

But, he said, when you put together cellphone records and Jay’s testimony, “they corroborate and feed off each other–it’s a very strong evidentiary case.”

Syed did not testify at the trial, but had he done so, Urick said, he would have run through his cellphone records: “And my very last question would be, what is your explanation for why you either received or made a call from Leakin Park the evening that Hae Min Lee disappeared, the very park that her body was found in five weeks later?”

The justice system in America frequently doesn’t work. This is not one of those cases.

It's all about the cellphone-records - which are disputed, to say the least - and then in the middle: Guitierrez knew those cellphonerecords were strong. The disclosure is the only 'proof' they present as to why his argument holds true. And it doesn't prove that.

everyone in this thread needs an intervention

He. And if they actually release part 2 of that interview tomorrow, we'll probably start all over again...

I admit I have a problem

What the hey, here's a lil more fuel for the crazy fire
http://mashable.com/2015/01/01/jay-serial-stories/

I find it clarifying, although I don't find lining up the intercept version of events with the other three since the interview is a pretty cursory, incomplete, off-the-cuff thing (not to mention 15 years after the fact) whereas the others are police interviews or trial testimony with many more details filled in.

Another thing I still don't understand in your theory, Frederick, or in any theory where Adnan was actually at the mosque, is why Adnan wouldn't have his phone with him by then. Apologies if this was discussed upthread. Like we know that some time in that 6-6:30 timeframe, probably 6:24, Adnan talked to the cops, on his own phone. From then on, why doesn't Adnan have the phone? Why would he give it back to Jay? He doesn't claim to have given the car back to Jay, iirc. I thought he said he drove himself back home, got food for his father, and went to mosque. So why would Jay have the phone in Adnan's version?

I'm happy to answer this question, and followups, but... does it actually help you at this point, or does it just make you obsess more? Like, if you're trying to get some calm from your questions, it might be better to find answers to the weird things in the prosecutions theory, rather than in my story - which I'm pretty happy and calm with, at this point.

But if Jay buried Hae, he had to have both Adnan's phone and car. The question isn't really why Adnan would lend his car and phone to Jay, since he has done so twice already on the same day. And not just because of the murder, Jay had car and phone while Adnan was at track as well. And why should Adnan need to have his phone on him at Mosque, on final day of Ramadan? It would be like phoning people while at Christmas mass.

No, the weird question is more: Why does Adnan say that he probably had his phone with him? But that is a weird question for every theory there is. Either Adnan was at Mosque but without his phone, or he was with his phone but at Leakin Park. Why does Adnan claim that he was at Mosque with his phone?

Technically he did call a bunch of people during that night during prayer or at least the social gathering post-prayer (was it really the last day btw... I tried finding the Ramadan calendar for 1998-9 and I think it started on 12/20 which should have it end after 1/13, right?)

When I've been at a Mosque for Ramadan (twice) it was usually prayer (which was not that long) followed by social/eating. It's not really comparable to X-mas mass, so it's not really as strange as it sounds that someone would think I'll slip away and make a few phone calls (which presumably he did).

Well, there are no calls to anyone Adnan knows between 7 and 9.

That said I have no idea what Adnan's mosque is like and my limited experience is maybe not representative.

There are no calls period between 8-9 basically which supports idea that phone is with Adnan at that point and he has turned it off maybe because he's at prayer. And Adnan pretty definitely has phone around 7 since there is a call to Yasser. It strikes me as pretty implausible that Adnan would not remember having given the phone at that point (along with his car to Jay) at 7 o'clock or remember getting it back at ~9pm and I don't believe he's ever claimed he has, so I think you have to assume the phone was with both of them.

Well, problem is that calls at 8:04 and 8:05 are at Leakin Park. So Adnan cannot have returned to prayer at that point. And yeah, it's implausible that Adnan would not remember that he gave car and phone out, but it's also implausible that he wouldn't just lie about it, since he's obviously then lying about being at Mosque. It's just a weird, weird, thing, with no satisfactory answers. He was high as a kite, though.

I thought 8:04 and 8:05 are elsewhere?

He could be at the mosque between 8:10-9:00.

Or even after 9 if he's stepping out to make those phone calls.

They are nearby Leakin Park, around where the car was hidden. Consistent with a single man needing a ride, because he had just gotten rid of a car. And those calls are to Jenn, and Jenn stated that when she arrived to pick up Jay, he was with Adnan. So if we're believing the story of Adnan burying Hae, there is not that much time where he could be at Mosque. And at least, the phonerecords doesn't show that.

Consistent with two people and two cars (Adnans and Haes) and Jay needing a reed now that Adnan's going to the mosque and Hae's car is being dumped. There's almost two hours for him to be at the mosque.

Wait Jenn states that when she picks up Jay, Adnan is there? Totally forgot that little fact, but that's pretty damning too.

Ride not a reed unless he's going to play some sweet sax.

Well, it can't both be damning that the phonerecords indicate he is at Mosque at 8:10 to 9, AND that Jenn sees him somewhere else at 8:30.

The phone records don't indicate he was anywhere from 8:10-9 and he could have driven to the mosque immediately after Jenn picks up Jay (no idea how long that takes from when she gets paged). It's damning in that it supports a version of events where Jay and Adnan are together until past-8. Whether Adnan gets to the mosque or not or how long he is there is pretty immaterial.

Also, Jenn is lying. Her story doesn't match Jay's, but ok, nothing ever does. She says she gets a call to pick up Jay at Westview, then arrives there first. If Adnan and Jay are already on their way, and Adnan is in a hurry, why would he choose to deliver Jay somewhere so close to Jenn that she gets there first? Also, Jenn then says that she and Jay went to Stephanie, but Stephanie denies this.

Of course as I understand it the Free Adnan faction holds Jenn in almost as low regard as they do Jay so I'm sure there's some "reasonable" explanation for why Jenn would be lying about them being together.

haha and there you go.

"If Adnan and Jay are already on their way, and Adnan is in a hurry, why would he choose to deliver Jay somewhere so close to Jenn that she gets there first?"

How does Adnan know where Jenn is when Jay pages her? How do you know Adnan is in a hurry? There are some leaps here.

Yeah, sure. But Jay and Jenns story literally is that Jay called Jenn to get her to help him with covering up his involvement in the murder. So, you know. It's not a stretch of the imagination. She also lies about Jay being at her house in the afternoon, when the cellphonerecords show him to be anywhere but.

So again just to make sure I understand this correctly:

Jay killed Hae alone.
Jay disposed of her body alone with two cars while hanging out with Adnan.
Jay then enlisted Jenn to both cover up crime and also frame Adnan.
Adnan has no alibi for any critical point of this because he is super unlucky and Jay is super lucky.
None of this falls completely down under any scrutiny at time because again Jay is super lucky and cops are deadset on it being Adnan.

I think I've got it but I want to make sure.

And if Adnan wasn't in a hurry, then why didn't he just drive Jay where he needed to be? Jay thought about this as well, until the trial, he says that Adnan drew him home, and then Jenn picked him up from there. Jenn says the mall, though.

I am guessing that Jay's careless self needed to be with someone with a car. No hurry I'll just page her.

This Intercept thing is becoming a real mess. Now NVC and Intercept editors are on Twitter donation-shaming Adnan supporters and attacking "media feminists".

Not remotely surprised that combo of Intercept folks and Serial fans is turning into a butthurtathon.

I don't think we'll see part two.

It might contain more Ed notes but you'll see it. Websites love traffic.

Well, hope you're right.

They apparantly spiked a response post written by NVC in favor of just doing corrections.

Adnan definitely has the phone around 9, so if Jay has it alone for those slightly post 8 calls he has to somehow get the phone back to adnan by 9. And that doesn't square with adnan being at mosque - Jay shows up at services and hands back the phone? Jay rolls up right when adnan has just happened to step outside?

No offence, I really don't mean to sound rude, but at this point I think it seems a bit to me as if you're grasping at straws, man alive. There is a very common explanation for that, one that people did all the time back before cellphones were everywhere, which is that Adnan and Jay had agreed before on when Jay should bring car and phone back to Adnan. Again: The problem isn't that Adnan was at Mosque. The weird thing is that Adnan says he had his phone with him at Mosque. Of course, there is another, possible but less normal, explanation for how car and phone got back to Adnan, which might on the other hand help explain why stoned Adnan was confused on what had happened: That Jay simply left the car at Mosque, with keys inside, phone in glove compartment, and unlocked doors, then left (to be picked up by Jenn, probably).