DEM not gonna CON dis NATION: Rolling UK politics in the short-lived post-Murdoch era

torn from the doll's bonce with a trident, mb she has a thing about them

The Sun: we think you'll fall for this shit, how's that for contempt?

"is said to have"

whats this about devilish hacks?

^I knew you would come through on this one

what an evil bitch.

thats it, i am voting tory.

That speech is incredible. He manages to pat everyone in the country on the head while still blowing a hole in his own foot. I thought this cunt was meant to be good at PR?

Such a shame that Labour left this country bankrupt with all their overspending. Last night's unpleasantness could all have been avoided if they hadn't spent all of the money.

Where exactly is that wee cunt Liam Byrne these days?

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html

Cook Pass Babtridge?

has mili really rowed back on his anti-snp stance?? it's the telegraph reporting it so i'm a little sus

Last night he said he'd rather see a Tory government than deal with the SNP so I'm thinking no.

I think he's trying to do a politician's shuffle on this one. There won't be a coalition-style deal with the SNP, where he agrees X and they agree their undying support. I think what they're trying to do is rule out a A Deal but leave wiggle room for Many Little Deals on a vote-by-vote basis.

Think he already made this assertion a few days ago: “I’m not interested in deals, no … The way the House of Commons works is that we want to put our Queen’s speech before the House of Commons and the other parties will vote." https://archive.is/CtTq6

In this scenario the assumption is that the SNP will vote in his favour at the Queen's Speech so he becomes PM without a Confidence and Supply arrangement - ie. after the Queen's Speech vote the SNP can decide whether to support him or not without a specific arrangement to do so.

The UKIP Scotland site http://ukipscotland.org/ on their manifesto posters doesn't exist. David Coburn blamed "Cybernats".

I think he's trying to do a politician's shuffle on this one.

Ed M surely is a good enough politician to lie.

People are pretty deluded if they think Miliband is going to voluntarily turn down the chance to be Prime Minister because of the SNP. Suspect that he and Sturgeon have already rehearsed this particular dance, it's about making the inevitable concessions platable to both sides.

Pretty sure he won't get the chance, can't see how Labour are going to manage to be the biggest party.

Labour doesn't need to be the biggest party.

Obviously but I'd be surprised if they tried to form a government if they weren't.

suspect Tories will be the biggest single party, will be unable to form a government, will launch into a good old-fashioned stabbing each other in the gut spree

I reckon they'll be the largest party comfortably enough for the Labour Party to concede (and ditch Miliband at the first opportunity), then they'll have some sort of arrangement with the Lib Dems and limp along under constant danger of attack from the very SNP they've been scaring little children with.

not enough Lib Dem seats + some Lib Dem MPs refusing to countenance another Tory coalition = no

Former is possible, though 25-30 is no' bad under the circumstances, latter relies on Lib Dems not being cunts so I wouldn't put any money on that one personally.

lack of cunterity doesn't come into it - fear of deselection/losing seat next go round might well come into it

also i'm assuming Tories will do better at polls than in opinion polls but maybe it'll be not by much, the game feels somewhat different to previous versions

i guess the possibility of a solid enough Tory gov is not vanishingly small, lots of wankers don't like to own up to the outside world about their sordid voting habits

Tories would need 293 if the Lib Dems got 30 and they didn't need to call on UKIP and the DUP. It's plausible but not considered likely at the moment.

idk whether re-running the election in July would materially change things if outcome unworkable.

Tory/Lib Dem minority goverment I reckons. Carswell will be UKIP's only MP I also reckons, and I'm not sure how long he'll remain in UKIP if he is.

A Tory / Lib Dem minority government would need to rely on the DUP for support- which would come with conditions unlikely to be palatable to the Lib Dems. I don't see how they could get a Queen's Speech through if they were double digits away from a majority.

http://liberalconspiracy.org/2015/04/30/two-big-reasons-a-tory-lib-dem-coalition-is-unlikely-after-this-election/

the logical conclusion to Clegg's Lloyd George reboot wd be for him to form his own spin-off or just join the Tories proper

If he holds on to his seat..

well quite

Obviously but I'd be surprised if they tried to form a government if they weren't.

― Cram Session in Goniometry (Tom D.), Monday, May 4, 2015 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You might be surprised.

I don't believe anything now until I see carved it into an 8ft slab of marble.

making the law

judaspriest.jpg

lots of wankers don't like to own up to the outside world about their sordid voting habits

The polling companies already adjust for this in their predictions.

I still think we'll end up with a more or less workable Tory minority but if Miliband had the opportunity of keeping Cameron out, even through working with the SNP, then why wouldn't he? It's not like he would have the opportunity to play any kind of long game.

I'm hoping Delia Smith and Ronnie O'Sullivan voicing their support for Labour is going to change everything.

Given that Labour have been running around Scotland for weeks espousing the "biggest party forms the government" line, they wouldn't want to look like hypocrites in the face of being hoisted on their own petard, would they?

fear of deselection/losing seat next go round might well come into it

I think we said that last time.

i wonder if there are any salient differences between this election and the last one

The Independent wants more of the same, please:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html

It is clear that not only our democracy, but our kingdom, is in some peril.

handwringing over democracy and the feudal system in the same sentence, nice touch

I still think we'll end up with a more or less workable Tory minority

You've kept saying that since day one - what does workable mean? Do they get through 12bn in welfare cuts?

I'm beginning to wonder what century we're living in, tbh. If the Labour-SNP thing ever happens, I would strongly recommend the authorities double security patrols on the cellars in the Houses of Parliament and MI6 keep tabs on men in doublet and pointed beards and on the movement of barrels of gunpowder.

I always lived wanted to live through some of history's greatest moments tbh.

From the Independent editoral:

... if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.

UK General Election 2010 (share of vote):
Conservative Party - 36.1%
Liberal Democrats - 23%

BBC Poll Tracker, May 2nd, 2015:
Conservative Party - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 8%

Xyzzz - I mean that I think they and the Lib Dems will hang onto more seats than people are expecting and that'll be enough for them to push some legislation through with support for smaller parties.

Suspect they won't be able to get £12bn of welfare cuts through because those Lib Dems who do remain are likely to be less obliging when out of a formal coalition. My guess is that one of the reasons the Tories have been throwing around obviously uncosted pledges on tax and spending is that they will be able to water them down later under the guise of post-election "negotiations". No matter how batshit the party is, the leadership must surely have been planning for a hung parliament as the most likely outcome.

I know a few people within the Treasury and the general feeling is that the Tories have thrown a lot of post-election planning out of the window in the last couple of weeks and no one has any idea where the money is going to go and how they propose to keep their pledges on tax, NHS spending and deficit reduction all at once.

To elaborate, the Treasury obviously plan with various scenarios in mind based on how they expect the various parties to behave and were reasonably confident they knew what the Tories were going to do in the event of re-election, and the Tories have basically blown that up completely now.