As teams complete their seasons, ESPN Insider's NBA team will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for all 30 teams. Below, Kevin Pelton offers a snapshot of the Atlanta Hawks.
2014-15 record: 60-22
Pythagorean record: 55-27
Offensive Rating: 106.3 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 100.7 (7th)
Under Contract For 2015-16
PLAYER SALARY RPM WARP
Jeff Teague $8,000,000 2.2 8.8
Al Horford $12,000,000 1.9 8.7
Kyle Korver $5,746,479 5.8 6.8
Thabo Sefolosha $4,000,000 2.2 1.9
Dennis Schroder $1,763,400 -2.4 1.8
Mike Scott $3,333,333 -1.5 1.8
Shelvin Mack $2,433,333 -1.7 0.9
Kent Bazemore $2,000,000 -3.2 -0.7
Possible Free Agents
PLAYER TYPE RPM WARP
Paul Millsap Unrestricted 4.4 10.3
DeMarre Carroll Unrestricted 0.6 6.1
Mike Muscala Non-guaranteed 1.4 1.6
John Jenkins Unrestricted -2.0 0.6
Pero Antic Restricted 1.3 0.0
Austin Daye Non-guaranteed - -0.3
Elton Brand Unrestricted -0.9 -0.7
Draft picks
Brooklyn first-round pick (15th)
Toronto second-round pick (50th)
Own second-round pick (58th)
Projected cap space
Maximum: $24.6 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $5.9 million
What's returning
The Hawks have three of the five members of this season's deep starting lineup signed to great value contracts. Guards Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague and center Al Horford, all of them Eastern Conference All-Stars in 2015, will make a combined $25.7 million in 2015-16 -- barely more than Joe Johnson's $24.9 million salary.
Korver and Teague both enjoyed career seasons, more predictable for the 26-year-old Teague than Korver, well past his expected prime at age 34. Few players have done a better job of maintaining their body than Korver, who will have to spend this summer rehabbing the severely sprained ankle that eventually required surgery and ended his postseason. For Horford, this summer is a chance to work on his game after coming back from pectoral surgery last offseason.
Besides the starters, the Hawks have four members of their second unit under contract. Thabo Sefolosha's value was demonstrated by his absence for the stretch run and playoffs after his ankle was broken in the process of his arrest by New York City police. With Sefolosha out, Kent Bazemore stepped into a larger role, but he doesn't provide as much size or outside shooting. Forward Mike Scott lost his rotation spot in the postseason to Mike Muscala before regaining it in the conference finals because of his ability to space the floor.
Both of Teague's backups, Dennis Schroder and Shelvin Mack, return. With so much depth at the position, one of the players could be more valuable as a trade chip.
Free agents
After making less than $12 million combined in 2014-15, starting forwards DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap are due for big raises as unrestricted free agents. Carroll emerged as a premier 3-and-D role player in two seasons in Atlanta, and his strength and ability to crash the offensive glass are unique among players of his ilk. An eight-figure salary per season is a realistic starting point for Carroll's next contract.
Millsap was a forgotten man in free agency two years ago, allowing the Hawks to steal him for $19 million over two seasons. An All-Star both years in Atlanta, Millsap figures to get more attention this time around after developing into a consistent 3-point threat.
The only rotation reserve hitting free agency is center Pero Antic, who will be restricted. Despite falling out of the rotation in the conference finals, Antic has been a security blanket for head coach Mike Budenholzer, so expect him to return. Shooting guard John Jenkins, who played well when starters rested, will likely head elsewhere in search of more playing time.
Biggest need: Size in the paint
Until Muscala earned a larger role in the playoffs, the Hawks had just two players taller than 6-foot-8 in their rotation: Horford and Antic. And while Horford has been effective in the middle, he's undersized for a center in his own right at 6-foot-10, 245. The lack of size manifested itself most prominently on the defensive glass. Atlanta was 22nd in defensive rebound percentage during the regular season and got destroyed on the boards by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals.
Biggest question: Did the Hawks catch lightning in a bottle?
Surprise seasons are rare in the NBA, in which talent usually wins out over the course of the 82-game season. The Hawks came out of nowhere to win 60 games and claim the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but a closer look reveals they weren't as good as their record would indicate. Atlanta's point differential was more typical of a 55-win team, and in the playoffs the Hawks performed like a 45-win team when considering their level of competition. No matter what happens this offseason, Atlanta is likely to see its record drop considerably in 2015-16.
Ideal offseason
The Hawks re-sign Millsap to a three-year, $45 million contract and Carroll for $30 million over three years. On draft night, Texas post man Myles Turner unexpectedly slips to the 15th pick Atlanta owns via the Brooklyn Nets, giving the Hawks more size up front without sacrificing shooting ability.
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 May 2015 14:47 (eight years ago) link