Uh hit even more homers. Draw even more walks.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Sunday, September 20, 2015 6:38 PM (51 minutes ago)
history seems to show that there's a ceiling on how much a guy can do. barry bonds excepted, i mean
― usic ally (k3vin k.), Sunday, 20 September 2015 23:30 (eight years ago) link
Ceiling on those two isn't usually 22 though.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Sunday, 20 September 2015 23:46 (eight years ago) link
it would be far, far more likely to find players who had their greatest seasons at age 21 or age 22 than players who hit 11.0+ in a single year.
And very rare to in a player with WAR > 11 in an age 21 or 22 year, which makes then even more remarkable. But it doesn't make it less likely that they reach even higher peaks in their mid-late-twenties, like most players do.
― 1996 ball boy (Karl Malone), Monday, 21 September 2015 00:57 (eight years ago) link
@JeffPassanClosest thing to 2015 Bryce Harper in history is probably 1993 Barry Bonds.Harper: .343/.470/.674, 206 OPS+Bonds: .336/.458/.677, 206 OPS+
― Andy K, Monday, 21 September 2015 12:47 (eight years ago) link
Wow, that is close. I'm surprised, though, that Harper's OPS+ isn't the higher of the two by 5-10 points; '93 was a big hitters' year, really the beginning of the offensive boom of the next decade.
― clemenza, Monday, 21 September 2015 13:45 (eight years ago) link
1993 NL: .264/.327/.3992015 NL: .254/.317/.398
I guess the park adjustment is significant.
― clemenza, Monday, 21 September 2015 13:51 (eight years ago) link
Matthew Kory, BP:
Yet another reason Mike Trout is better than Bryce Harper: choke-preventing neck width.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 September 2015 18:46 (eight years ago) link
trout's neck would have broken papelbon's hand
― 1997 ball boy (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 29 September 2015 18:47 (eight years ago) link
lol
― usic ally (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 29 September 2015 19:57 (eight years ago) link
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/history-peaks-and-mike-trout-the-year-four-update/
Mike Trout has now played four full seasons, and he’s accumulated more than 37 WAR. Only nine players in Major League history have done that in any four-year stretch. Trout’s done it to begin a career.
post also has a nice chart summarizing the best 4-year peaks by WAR
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 4 November 2015 23:16 (eight years ago) link
great post. that table is fun to look at that.
Aside: somewhat incredible McCutchen has had the same 4 year peak than Cabrera and Frank Thomas.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 5 November 2015 02:28 (eight years ago) link
Yeah, I was amazed to see chase utley way up on the list, above all these all time greats. I mean I knew he had a great run, but O_O
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 5 November 2015 03:50 (eight years ago) link
chuck knobloch!
― k3vin k., Thursday, 5 November 2015 04:36 (eight years ago) link
would trout's WAR be higher if he'd had an identical performance in the (lower-offense) national league? or is that factored in/not a factor
― mookieproof, Thursday, 5 November 2015 17:49 (eight years ago) link
league factors are included yeah
― k3vin k., Thursday, 5 November 2015 18:03 (eight years ago) link
yeah everything in the WAR calculation is calculated relative to replacement level which itself is relative to the strength of the league, position, etc
― ciderpress, Thursday, 5 November 2015 18:04 (eight years ago) link
knoblauch had a nice run for a bit there. he scored 140 runs one season!! then he made 140 errors in another season.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 November 2015 19:36 (eight years ago) link
kind of crazy to say, but trout's got a 25 (!!!!) WAR cushion at this point. stick a fork in it
― have you ever even read The Drudge Report? Have you gone on Stormfron (k3vin k.), Saturday, 24 September 2016 17:54 (seven years ago) link
opening day homers for both of em
― frogbs, Tuesday, 4 April 2017 02:57 (seven years ago) link
Trout's was impressive.
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 4 April 2017 02:59 (seven years ago) link
Harper's hit 2 HR tonight in two AB. He's .380 with 6 HR and 18 RBI--but he started off that way last year, too.
― clemenza, Thursday, 20 April 2017 00:41 (seven years ago) link
trout seemingly hasn't missed a beat either
― k3vin k., Thursday, 20 April 2017 03:45 (seven years ago) link
Just imagine how old we're all going to feel when the poll results come in (the voting period is already 1/3 over!)
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 20 April 2017 08:23 (seven years ago) link
is it fair to say that cubs series fucked up BH last year?
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 20 April 2017 13:15 (seven years ago) link
another huge night from harper
― k3vin k., Saturday, 22 April 2017 02:32 (seven years ago) link
trout read your post and decided to hit a HR
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 22 April 2017 04:06 (seven years ago) link
Harper's been walked all three times today, once intentionally. Hope he responds better to this kind of thing this year than he did last year.
― clemenza, Saturday, 22 April 2017 21:29 (seven years ago) link
Harper's obviously not going to keep this up, but the one thing I could see him doing this year (the way Washington's offense is going; Trout can't, or at least can't this year, because of his lousy team) is score 150+ runs, which since 1949 only Bagwell managed to do. He's scored 26 in 21 games so far (Thames has 27, but that seems a little chimerical).
― clemenza, Thursday, 27 April 2017 12:27 (seven years ago) link
yea w Zimmerman seemingly 'back', that lineup is terrifying
― johnny crunch, Thursday, 27 April 2017 12:46 (seven years ago) link
still waiting for the Nats to "arrive". I remember all the talk about shutting Strasburg down, it was okay because the Nats were gonna dominate for years to come - instead we got *record scratches* The Kansas City Royals!?!?
― frogbs, Thursday, 27 April 2017 13:00 (seven years ago) link
They didn't even give us the day off work.
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/131492/april-28th-is-mike-trout-and-bryce-harper-day
― clemenza, Saturday, 29 April 2017 14:43 (seven years ago) link
I bet the two of them have homered on the same day four or five times already this year (including yesterday and today). I have shrewdly concluded that they're secretly competing with each other.
― clemenza, Sunday, 14 May 2017 21:11 (seven years ago) link
they used to dislike each other but i'm not sure if they care anymore
― k3vin k., Sunday, 14 May 2017 22:11 (seven years ago) link
When you get these unspoken rivalries at the top (and I realize that career-wise, it's a mismatch for Trout; I mean more of an in-the-moment thing, when Harper's at his best), they can be friendly (Magic-Bird) or not (Tiger-Phil). Bonds vs. Griffey/McGwire/Sosa/the world was evidently fueled by (justifiable) anger on Bonds' part.
No idea where these two guys stand, but I do think they're watching each other.
― clemenza, Sunday, 14 May 2017 22:43 (seven years ago) link
I can't imagine anyway disliking Trout.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 15 May 2017 01:44 (seven years ago) link
Anyone*
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 15 May 2017 01:45 (seven years ago) link
good URL
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/5/15/15631942/bryce-harper-mike-trout-barry-bonds-ted-williams-babe-ruth
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 May 2017 18:00 (seven years ago) link
Bryce's OBP is .500 right now wtf
― frogbs, Tuesday, 16 May 2017 18:05 (seven years ago) link
He's going to totally mess up the saying about even the best baseball players failing more often than they succeed
Now what will I tell my dog when she messes up
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 16 May 2017 18:09 (seven years ago) link
they're 1-2 in wRC+ right now
trout's at .352/.450/.752, good for 225 wRC+harper is .384/.500/.752, which after adjusting for league and park is a 215 wRC+
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 16 May 2017 18:13 (seven years ago) link
Home runs for Trout-Harper.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 00:39 (six years ago) link
I just checked--fifth time this season. I don't have anything to compare that with, so I don't know if that's more often than you'd expect or not.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 00:49 (six years ago) link
back of the envelope, but if you imagine a 40 HR hitter, they hit a home run 24.7% of the time (simplifying things by assuming they only hit a single home run in 40 different games, but whatever).so the chances of two 40 HR hitters hitting a home run on the same day is roughly .247 * .247 = .06 = 6% of the time, or about 10 games.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 00:58 (six years ago) link
ugh, i hate myself and my typos and my inability to wait for 5 seconds and reread things before posting them. i'm sorry.
"about every 10 games", i meant"
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 00:59 (six years ago) link
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
Thanks--so basically exactly what you'd expect. 10% of the 45 games they've each played would be 4.5, and they're both hitting closer to 50-HR rate, accounting for the extra half-game.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 01:02 (six years ago) link
it would happen 10 games per season, i mean. jesus christ i am the worst, sorry.
looking at trout and harper's numbers so far, they're both on pace for 49 home runs (taking into account their homers per game and also the % of games they've played his season vs the total number of games their teams have played).
so on days when they play, they hit a home run 30% of the time (again with the simplifying assumption that they don't have multi-homer days). if they both play the same day, the chances they both hit a home run are .3 * .3 or 9%, or about 15 times over the course of a season.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 01:07 (six years ago) link
anyway long story short, if it's happened 5 times this season and you'd expect 15 total times, and we're not yet a 1/3 of the way through the season, they're ahead of the normal pace for that happening. but probably not by too much. :)
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 01:09 (six years ago) link
jeez karl malone's poorly thought out math has just about ruined my day
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 24 May 2017 01:10 (six years ago) link
not just the bad math, the typos
i'm a part of the problem
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 24 May 2017 01:11 (six years ago) link