Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

Trump is doing some cheap attack ads on his Instagram, which seems like a smart and slightly inconspicuous way to do them:

https://www.instagram.com/p/-bz5HWGhXZ/?taken-by=realdonaldtrump

b) Rubio would be my pick right now--he's had a steady climb, and, watching him on Meet the Press, I don't think he's going to scare anyone away.

if you dig into that recent WashPo/ABC poll, Rubio was also the top "second choice" with 17%, as in, "if you couldn't vote for candidate X, who would be your next choice?". Carson and Trump were just behind him on that, though - 16% and 14%, respectively.

also interesting in that poll was a question about how much attention people are paying to the election at this point. the net (VERY interested + somewhat interested) was 75% of those polled. that may not sound like a lot, but it's higher than previous election cycles. in november '11, for example, it was 65%, in november '07 it was 67%, and in late october '03 it was 54%. there's the conventional wisdom that polling doesn't matter at this point because no one's paying attention and of course that will still hold true to a degree, but more and more people are paying attention earlier and earlier. it's somewhat surprising because you'd think an effect of the endless campaign of perpetuity and despair would end up alienating people from the process altogether, but i guess the magnetic fascism of Trumpism is enough to outweigh the nausea of the infinite campaign.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-nov-15-19-2015/1880/

And the number of wingnuts who really really hate Obama.

I missed if this was already posted, but here's Matt Taibbi following around the clown car in NH:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-gop-clown-car-rolls-on-20151117

So let me get this straight: New Hampshire voters prefer the most destructive antiestablishment candidate in 50 years by 22 percent.

But if Mitt Romney, perhaps the most establishment candidate there could be in this race, was running, he would have 31 percent compared to what would then only be 15 percent for Trump.

I know there's likely some regional bias in these numbers, but what?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/11/21/gop-voters-would-prefer-romney/WiU9f86jd19UkXYQfb2yxM/story.html

most destructive antiestablishment candidate

Should've said "frontrunner" instead of "candidate"

other western countries with parliamentary systems have shown a steady ~10% of the populace goes for nationalist and xenophobic parties (with a weird smattering of nonconservatives liking it too) so trump's support doesn't seem exceptional. we're right in line.

But he's polling at over 40% nationwide in head-to-head general election match-ups.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

xpost So many of the replies to Trump's tweet were all "how can numbers be racist?!". As if those turds wouldn't have balked mightily at stats that opposed their fucked up worldview

Seriously, fuck this country, we deserve the Chump

i'd be shocked if trump was the next potus. by contrast would anyone be shocked if marie le pen was the next pm of france? so we have it pretty good i think.

tim that's in a constrained 1on1 q vs hillary

like, here's another tab from that same page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_fiorina_vs_clinton-5470.html

every head to head matchup has numbers in the 40s

yeah it broadly reflects party support rather than candidate support

xp

Yeah, exactly! I thought in the post I quoted that you were comparing him to European far-right party popularity based on the idea that his 25-30% or whatever it is nationwide in the primary field amounts to something like 10% of support nationwide. But I think the head-to-head match-ups are more troubling!

xp

Yes to Shakey but nevertheless over 40% of the people surveyed in every one of the polls said they would actually vote for him specifically.

I think you're misreading that

I mean you're right in that if the question was phrased "who would you vote for, Hillary or Trump", 40% said Trump but that does not mean that those people would vote for Trump under any circumstances

your first sentence is exactly what i meant, yeah. but no i think the h2h matchups are not that illustrative of anything because they're all about the same no matter which candidate you're talking about!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sanders_vs._republicans.html

No repub is going to be elected president in 2016. I'll bet one person on here $10

i think that's a safe bet but tbh who knows what could happen. a major terrorist attack in the US coupled with another economic downturn could put prez donald in the white house

nah

Equal parts unsurprising and fucking wow.

Just caught up with Trump's crime statistics now (it's hard to keep track of Trump stuff--I thought all the commentary above had to do with his Paris-related pronouncements). Same reaction as Old Lunch--or as Robert Downey says in Zodiac, "Jesus Harold Christ on rubber crutches."

Trump definitely has the thoughtful, measured temperament to respond appropriately to a terrorist attack, that I am sure of.

Meanwhile here's the thoughtful, measured temperament:

Hillary Clinton favors an activist American foreign policy, and Rubio mentioned to me that he was rereading “The Last Lion,” by William Manchester. He said, “It’s this book about Churchill. It’s really long. Only because I’m just so fascinated by the leadership he provided.” He went on, “Churchill was a guy who was largely ignored through much of the thirties as a warmonger, and a guy that was crying wolf, and Chamberlain was this heroic figure that was going to achieve peace in our time by diplomacy. And I think, in many cases, we’re kind of at a similar moment, where many of us, including myself, are warning about dangers that are percolating around the world and what they could turn into [bold mine-DL]. Whether it’s Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, or radical Islam.”

I love the excited way in which he discovers conventional wisdom.

that's pretty lol. "ooooh that's why we've been calling the president an appeaser"

No repub is going to be elected president in 2016.

Not likely; entirely possible.

one more interesting thing about that poll:

http://i.imgur.com/wDFBES4.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/S551VHr.jpg

"There's a part of me that wishes Trump were more outrageous and entertaining, but I'm supporting him anyway because I think he has a really good chance to win next November."

https://twitter.com/jameshupp/status/668924133581963264

omg

hahahahaaaa

many such teachings

It’s this book about Churchill. It’s really long.

an intellectual giant, I tell you

on a more serious (??) note, i had an awakening when i found the facebook page of the current majority leader of the wisconsin house of representatives, and his favorite books were:

- the fountainhead
- the bible
- one of those christian self-help things like "10 ways to get to heaven"

it hit me how many of these folks are highly skilled at prevarication and doublespeak but in every other way are total ignoramuses

An actual clown-car story out of Toronto:

http://www.cp24.com/news/doo-doo-the-clown-commended-for-saving-two-women-from-petrifying-attack-1.2671094

“I had a carload of clowns and I was driving one of them back to Union Station and as we turned the corner, I saw this man jumping on cars. He was wearing just shorts, no shoes, no socks and a shirt,” Doo Doo said.

lol @ Christie:

QUESTION: Governor, you were in New Jersey in 2001 right after the September 11th terrorist attacks. Do you recall ever seeing – were there ever instances in Jersey City of thousands of people cheering?

CHRISTIE: I don’t recall that. I don’t. I mean, listen, I can’t say, Matt, I can’t say that I have – it was a pretty emotional time for me because, as I’ve mentioned before, there’s family involved, there’s friends involved and so it was a pretty harrowing time. I do not remember that. And so, it’s not something that was part of my recollection. I think if it had happened, I would remember it. But, you know, there could be things I forget, too. I don’t remember that. No.

these guys are so "take-charge RAH RAH RAH no compromise ever!" unless they have to contradict Donald Trump, then they're a bunch of obsequious quislings

crying at

It’s this book about Churchill. It’s really long.

“It’s this book about Churchill. It’s really long.” Doo Doo said.

The really scary thing about this whole thing is that somehow all nuts turn to Ted Cruz he ends up becoming the nominee, something legalese or world events would pretty much invalidate Clinton and somehow he ends up President. That's a guy that I think gets ahold of that kind of power could be f'ing scary.

@RealJamesWoods
.@SenTedCruz and I just spoke for 40 minutes by phone about our love of this country. This man is the real deal. I'm all in! #TedCruz #tcot

Vice-President James Woods for starters...

a bunch of obsequious quislings

tbf rubio hasn't reached this chapter yet.

lol burn

http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/blogs/sanders_killer_mike_.jpg?itok=pgLLLBQO

Taken only seconds before Donald Trump burst through the door and saved his fellow presidential candidate from imminent death.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kywpo-XmFYg

just left the Bernie rally at the Fox feat. Killer Mike :D

damn killer mike is the best

wow

"bernie sanders introduced by 'killer'" --the right-wing internet

but srsly though bernie/mike 2016

Run The Country

is the bernie/killer mike img meme a t-shirt / coffee mug option yet? please don't make me duckduckgo it by myself here folks