I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

nah i think rubio is officially done, kasich seems the best moderate shot for the gop but it is still a little early.

xp

i'm with you on rubio, evol j. i don't see jeb or kasich suddenly getting a ton of momentum (i'd guess Kasich's second place finish in NH will be the peak moment of his campaign), and a good result or two for rubio in the upcoming primaries could erase his blunder in the last debate. everyone has a short memory.

Rubio got bodied. He's done. And Jeb "Please Clap" Bush has never shown any fight to begin with. So I think Kasich's chances are probably underrated right now. He has money problems, but I'm sure that some rich fucks who formerly supported Jeb or Rubio can still find their checkbooks in time.

i guess my mind would change on kasich if donations and endorsements suddenly started pouring in for him, but i just don't see that happening. why? you know, just a hunch

i feel certain it's gonna be trump or cruz

Rubio never really started; he has been this cycle's iteration of 2012 Santorum since the beginning

honestly i might have to quit facebook over sanders, i mean i'd love for him to be prez but i cannot fucking take these dudes' and their multiparagraph posts day after day after fucking day

yeah, i'm with mordy in thinking it will be cruz or trump, but i just think rubio will be the last establishment guy standing

The other thing is that Sanders-as-candidate would face an absolute tidal wave of negative advertising trying to define him according to some VERY well-established narratives - BIG GOVERNMENT, TAX N SPEND, TAKES YOUR MONEY, WASTEFUL SOCIAL PROGRAMS, RED TAPE, BUREAUCRACY, CRAZY RANTING WACKO, CHOSEN CANDIDATE OF PEOPLE RIOTING IN THE STREETS etc etc etc - and would have to spend way more of his time than he does now debunking smears.

y'all do know facebook lets you unfollow people you don't want to see stuff from, it's kind of totally unusable otherwise

I'm not gonna say it's going to be Kasich, but I like that bet best vs the odds I'd get.

at this point in time i'm not sure who i think is a better candidate between hillary and sanders but i do know that neither are as good as obama and even his prodigal once-in-a-generation campaigning talents couldn't keep the republican congressional sweep from happening in 2010.

As distasteful as I've typically found the GOP candidates, Cruz and Trump are easily the most unpalatable I've seen in my lifetime. They're reprehensible human beings, sure, but they're also just gross monsters.

@eorden
Rubio got blueberry pancakes w blueberry syrup. He's trying to eat soft foods, he said, because he cracked a molar on a Twix bar yesterday.

I dislike Cruz even more than Trump. Trump is an egomaniacal jerk playing shock jock but Cruz seems like a dangerous psychopath.

trump is a wildcard who i could also easily believe moving to the center after winning the republican nom. it's hard to know exactly how good or bad he'll be (tho he certainly doesn't have imo the character to be potus). cruz seems nixonian and might just win from force of political will alone.

this seems important: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/voter-id-study-minorities-liberals

Voter ID laws adversely affected the turnout of minorities, and particularly that of Latinos, the paper found. The study also revealed that turnout among Democrats was disproportionately affected, backing up claims of a political motivation behind the laws, which have been overwhelmingly championed by GOP legislators.

...In general elections, states with strict photo ID laws show a Latino turnout 10.3 points lower than in states without them. The law also affected turnout in primary elections, where Latino turnout decreased by 6.3 points and Black turnout by 1.6 points.

More revealing, however, is its comparison in how the laws affect the turnout gap between minorities and white voters, who were largely unimpeded by the laws.

In primary elections, the gap between Latino and white turnout tripled in states with the restriction, from 5.0 points to 13.3 points. The gap between black and white turnout doubled in primaries -- from 4.8 points to 8.5 points. The effect on Latinos also carried over to general elections, where the turnout gap doubled 5.3 points to 11.9 points.

y'all do know facebook lets you unfollow people you don't want to see stuff from, it's kind of totally unusable otherwise

― the thirteenth floorior (Doctor Casino), Thursday, February 11, 2016 10:15 AM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah the prob is i do want to see other stuff from a lot of them

i just want the to dial it down like a notch or two

sanders people really do remind me of nader people. i keep thinking if people really wanted to be realistic they would just rally around their clinton and get it over with.

the thing about sanders supporters that bothers me the most is that it isn't sufficient that they prefer sanders to hillary but they seem compelled to present hillary in the worst, least good faith light as possible.

one of my Facebook friends just changed his profile picture to this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8k2ffUYAENVYo.png

honestly i might have to quit facebook over sanders, i mean i'd love for him to be prez but i cannot fucking take these dudes' and their multiparagraph posts day after day after fucking day

― uptown garfunkel (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:13 AM (18 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea it is ridiculous

the thing about sanders supporters that bothers me the most is that it isn't sufficient that they prefer sanders to hillary but they seem compelled to present hillary in the worst, least good faith light as possible.

― Mordy, Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:26 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I feel like a good percentage of Sanders support comes from Hillary distrust. Also, Sanders comes off as no BS to supporters and this is that much more enhanced in contrast to a very stiff and scripted looking Hillary.

HRC has earned all the bad faith.

cruz seems nixonian and might just win from force of political will alone

"Dick Nixon" says Cruz, Clinton and Trump are not Nixonian.

Cruz’s politics are close to the ultra-conservative John Birch Society, which Nixon vocally opposed all his life. The difference was more than ideological: Nixon knew in the early 1960s that embracing “kooks” who “don’t give a damn about people” would “create the first major all-white political party” and doom them in general elections.

In comparing Cruz to Nixon, Rich Lowry credits him for “intelligence” and “willpower”—as though any politician could be effective without them. Sure, he has enough of these qualities to be a primary contender, but where are Nixon’s populist and realistic tendencies? What about his drive to build coalitions and create a lasting center-right majority? Nixon would likely judge Cruz as he did Barry Goldwater: rigid, shortsighted and destructive, an amateur who’d take a win today over five in the future.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/richard-nixon-clinton-cruz-trump-2016-213558

he thing about sanders supporters that bothers me the most is that it isn't sufficient that they prefer sanders to hillary but they seem compelled to present hillary in the worst, least good faith light as possible.

― Mordy, Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:26 AM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

very much so, it grosses me out

i'm not crazy about hillary but i'd happily vote for her in the general, im well aware she is not this progressive miracle but im in favor of a woman president who is a democrat

bernie-is-cool memes are weird because they're kinda all making fun of him on some level for being a dull old dude. I don't think you can't run a national campaign on the so-uncool-it's-cool hipster aesthetic. there's something kinda defeatist about the whole thing.

don't think you can't = don't think you can

typos galore

im in favor of a woman president who is a democrat

your needs are few

@thenation
How did we end up in a world where Donald Trump can actually win a GOP primary? It all starts with Richard Nixon: http://bit.ly/1Q9bmyp

@dick_nixon
Richard M. Nixon Retweeted The Nation
Typically stupid. I'll tell you what it is: 35 years of getting people to vote against their wallets.

We always kept an eye on the pocketbook. Reagan and the others, they didn't care. That's where Trump comes from.

I know this is boring but I am a registered Democrat who thinks Obama has been a terrific president and who thinks both HRC and Sanders would be great presidents and I am going to enthusiastically campaign for and give money to whichever of them is nominated. I never post on FB about this though. But to be honest I think that for every Democrat who thinks HRC is a corporate stooge or who thinks BS is an unelectable loon, there are 5 who are more like me.

i feel the same way except i probably will be unenthusiastically campaigning for either

never good to extrapolate from your own positions to other people ime

xp

but but the silent majority

i can hear them silently agreeing with me

most people know that the process is fucking bullshit. which ius why half of them stay home.

it's a catch 22 tho bc a big part of the reason why the process is bullshit is bc half of them stay home (and way more than half stay home during midterm elections)

Mordy sorta otm

but really how many totally ignorant, disengaged misinformed voters do we want voting anyway, what would Hamilton say lol etc.

im in favor of a woman president who is a democrat

your needs are few

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:41 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nah i just have low expectations for any presidency and at the same time think it would be a good thing if a woman from the country's more liberal/progressive party wins, its not very complicated

interesting analysis by Sam Wang, Nate Silver's very best friend, which might give pause to those that think that trump's 30-35% ceiling of support could never carry him to the nomination: http://prospect.org/article/gop-nomination-rules-tilt-playing-field-toward-donald-trump

Pundits have assured us that the support for Donald Trump is so limited that he can’t possibly get the GOP presidential nomination. Last week in The New York Times, Ross Douthat argued that Trump has a ceiling around 30 percent of Republican voters and consequently will be defeated. To put this numerical claim to the test, I have created a detailed state-by-state simulation of the nomination rules. My conclusion may surprise you: Trump’s current level of support may be enough to deliver him the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in July.

no i get that, but the Small Expectations stopped comforting me after Mondale won Massachusetts

xp

trump's 30-35% ceiling of support could never carry him to the nomination

it could carry him to the nomination but there's no way it would carry him through the general. Latinos and other minorities absolutely hate this fucking guy, with good reason, and there aren't enough angry white people to win the general.

bernie-is-cool memes are weird because they're kinda all making fun of him on some level for being a dull old dude. I don't think you can't run a national campaign on the so-uncool-it's-cool hipster aesthetic. there's something kinda defeatist about the whole thing.

― iatee, Thursday, 11 February 2016 16:37 (11 minutes ago) Permalink

I thought this at first too, but it's almost like he rode the meme train until he could reach escape velocity and now he's starting to get a serious look.

is this a space train?

249k dem votes is about 87.6% of the 284K republican votes, so the blue bar should be 87.6% of the height of the red. this is what it would look like if it were proportionately presented, since 438 pixels is 87% of 500 pixels:

Pedantry alert, but actually the red bar, the way it's labeled, doesn't represent all of the votes in the Republican primary, just the 35% of them that went to Trump (likewise the blue bar represents the 60% of the Democratic votes that went to Sanders). Since 60% of 249k is 149k votes for Bernie, vs. 35% of 284k or 99k votes for Trump, so the blue bar should be 1.5x taller than the red bar.

what would 'Trump in the center' sound like? the shockjock volume and let's-be-great mantras would be the same. and you'd assume the bigotry would leak out weekly if not daily. The electorate's stupidity has limits (there, that's my optimism).

Most voting decisions aren't driven by online memes, esp in old people who turn out the most.

you're optimistic in all the wrong ways. no one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the american public

ordinary GOP primary dog whistling can maybe be walked back but "keep out the Muslims and deport illegals" is gonna stay stuck to you.

yeah he's been too explicitly racist, there's no "take backsies" about that shit