I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

This string of tweets by Clay Shirky (who belongs on the abysmal real names thread btw) is well worth reading.

Highlights:

Each party has an unmentionable Issue X that divide its voters. Each overestimated their ability to keep X out of the campaign.

So here we are, with quasi-parlimentarianism. We now have four medium-sized and considerably more coherent voter blocs.

2 rump establishment parties, Trump representing 'racist welfare state' voters, and Sanders representing people who want a Nordic system.

Trump is RINO, Sanders not even a Dem. That either one could become their party's nominee is amazing. Both would mark the end of an era.

We will know by March 15th whether a major party's apparatus can be hijacked by mere voters. (Last time it was: McGovern.)

Over-large party coalitions require discipline to prevent people from taking an impassioned 30% of the base in order to win the primaries.

The old defense against this by the parties was "You and what army?" No third party has been anything other than a spoiler in a century.

The answer to that question this year, from both Trump and Sanders, is "Me and this army I can mobilize without your help."

some of that was interesting, but 'Instead of an essay, it turned into 50 tweets.' is one for the depressing phrases thread

Nah, most essays could be boiled down to a few tweets.

http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/cold-steel-in-the-hour-of-chaos

McGovern analogy a bit silly imo. Party insider, just a leftie who knew how the new party machinery worked cause he had designed it. Swept away by the voters, dunno about that at all. Carter fits the bill better, if anybody does.

AFL-CIO holding off on an endorsement; were expected to be in Clinton's pocket

Also it's not like a newsflash that the partiies contain these weird blocs in weird coalitions. Until one of the insurgents actually wins, it can't be confirmed that the establishments are now the rumps of their parties. I do think the point abt it being now apparent that you hypothetically *can* win with 35% is interesting- like a bug in the system no one noticed before, because it's always been the case that as the race progresses, other people drop out and the 35% person gets swamped by the one 45-50% person. Sure.

Also wonder about it really being two rump parties. If i were to get carried away in fantasy speculations, it'd be that the real realignment would be this wonky handoff where Sanders Democrats and certain Trump Republicans represent together a near-50% populist party of some form (obv needs some more ideological hammering-out - a FEW bugs there!) and the centrist rumps of both parties discover they've all been Rockefeller-Bloomberg Republicans all along. It'd be the real right-wing types left out in the cold, but there are plenty of states where they could go third party and still win, if they'd accept being forever out in the cold on the Presidency. I'd say more but i'm hoping for a sweet publishing deal on an alternate history series following a small band of free thinkers struggling to survive the new orthodoxy.

Listening to the Buffalo guy yesterday--Limbaugh/Hannity mold, a little more libertarian probably--I have a feeling Trump really is going to rip the party in half, short of the unlikely combination of winning the nomination and beating Clinton (I think beating Clinton would earn him some forgiveness). This guy has gone from supporting Cruz to warming up to Trump to thinking Trump's a phony to (yesterday) thinking that Trump and also Cruz will get buried by Clinton. Meanwhile, he can't stand Rubio or Bush or Kasich, and while he likes Carson, he thinks he's completely unqualified to be president. He even said, mocking a caller's skepticism of polls, that more often than not, polls are a good guide to what will happen. It seemed like a rare connection with reality, and also a reflection of his disgust with the Republican party.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbg2zxMW0AAKGBh.jpg

who is the buffalo guy?

http://i.imgur.com/Z10j0wI.jpg

can't wait for Trump to sue the Pope

attacking the pope - more latino outreach by trump.

lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/415868924841189376

@dick_nixon

No one will write it this way but the Pope was also talking about Israel.

The Pope is one of the two or three best political minds alive. Don't underestimate him.

AFL-CIO holding off on an endorsement; were expected to be in Clinton's pocket
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Thursday, February 18, 2016 10:43 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that’s pretty interesting, actually. in past years they’ve endorsed the establishment candidate disappointingly early.

also, i appreciate how the pope just threw it down. "donald trump is not a christian."

his comeback about humans being political animals by nature also quality

Donald Trump on the Pope

"odd looking"
"maybe not a believer"
"sweats a lot"
"worried about him, doesn't make a lot of sense"
"pathetic loser"
"travels too much, who's he trying to impress?"
"when i'm president he'll come running to the oval office to apologize"
"sad man"

Really can't wait to see what his Twitter account is like ~1 week after Trump either a) suspends his campaign or b) loses the general election. (I refuse to acknowledge any other potential outcomes.)

@dick_nixon

No one will write it this way but the Pope was also talking about Israel.

That seems unlikely given that Israel is not a Christian country

believe me, i hesitate to write "this will be what takes trump down" because i've had that thought several dozen times this past year and i'm wrong every time, but doesn't it seem like he's crossed a threshold? not just for catholics, who might be a biiiit pissed at trump for calling the pope 'disgraceful' (ok lol at that though), but also because it's a clear preview of what a Trump presidency would be like, the tone he would use to engage world leaders. yeah we all already had an idea of what that would be like, but he just started a fight with the pope ffs

i agree but at the same time the other candidates are so uniformly terrible that i'm not going to be surprised if he slips in.

i guess cruz seems like the other likely candidate but how many people want to stare at his mrs doubtfire face?

having a hard time determining whether or not that nixon account has stopped being a parody and morphed into someone spouting their own weird opinions under nixon's assumed imprimatur. cuz it seems less and less like joeks and more and more like "serious" commentary

believe me, i hesitate to write "this will be what takes trump down"

p sure the core of Trump's racist ignorant jerk base won't have to dig too deep to unearth some latent anti-papist feelings

"No leader, especially a religious leader, should have the right to question another man's religion or faith" — Donald Trump

he just started a fight with the pope ffs

"The Pope? How many divisions has he got?" - Stalin

but yeah that won't help him w the latino vote, he's doubling down on flushing their votes down the toilet

xp

having a hard time determining whether or not that nixon account has stopped being a parody and morphed into someone spouting their own weird opinions under nixon's assumed imprimatur. cuz it seems less and less like joeks and more and more like "serious" commentary

yeah i don't really get this account either

I know this particular Pope is strongly favored by Democrats and all, but this seems like a generally strategic mistake unless you believe the majority of the American public wants a President that operates solely on the "I rule, you drool" principle

i don't think either of those are true, Shakes... xp

@dick_nixon
The Chinese are very subtle. They demand it in return. To not be subtle is to be seen as weak.

I didn't watch the town hall for several reasons, not least that being face to face with these bastards is often more than my job's worth.

half expect trump to take a strong anti-papist line in the next debate

"do we really know who rubio is taking his orders from?"

he already said that the pope was the pawn of the mexican government

the American public wants a President that operates solely on the "I rule, you drool" principle

Trump makes it clear that roughly 20% of the population currently wants exactly this

obv the pope would be the bishop, just for starters

hey what a surprise

Former President Bill Clinton on Monday met in secret (no press allowed) with roughly 100 leaders of South Florida’s Jewish community and, as The Times of Israel reports, “he vowed that, if elected, Hillary Clinton would make it one of her top priorities to strengthen the US-Israel alliance.”

https://theintercept.com/2016/02/18/hillary-clinton-with-little-notice-vows-to-embrace-an-extremist-agenda-on-israel/

Trump makes it clear that roughly 20% of the population currently wants exactly this

The last time I checked, 20% wasn't a majority.

what other world leaders has trump openly battled with? there have probably been lots but i'm just forgetting?

i feel like part of the trump supporter mindset is believing trump when he makes vague references to how well he gets along with everyone, what a good dealmakers he is, how he's good at negotiating and all that. battling with the pope seems to undermine that. but then again, the pope is an evil socialist who probably wouldn't be a good businessman anyway, so fuck 'em (says the stereotypical trump supporter)

The last time I checked, 20% wasn't a majority.

right, still kinda alarming how many people actually *do* want that

there are a lot of conservatives who do not like pope francis at all, i think trump firing shots at him isn't going to necessarily go over as poorly as it would have with a previous pope.

what other world leaders has trump openly battled with?

Cher.

hey morbz, you know the pope remarks were: "A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian. This is not in the gospel," right? and you know that israel is not a Christian country? i imagine the pope knows that too.

lol i see hurting already covered this nevermind then

also

Former President Bill Clinton on Monday met in secret (no press allowed) with roughly 100 leaders of South Florida’s Jewish community and, as The Times of Israel reports, “he vowed that, if elected, Hillary Clinton would make it one of her top priorities to strengthen the US-Israel alliance.”

this isn't a secret ffs, morbz, you've linked to an article hillary actually wrote herself saying this very thing:
http://forward.com/opinion/national/324013/how-i-would-rebuild-ties-to-israel-and-benjamin-neta/

As nomar says, SoCon Catholics haven't cottoned to Francis anyways, they want Ex-Benedict back. Liberal Catholics aren't potential Trump voters anyways, so I don't see who he loses of his current support.

Trump is unlikely to say anything that turns off any of his current supporters. Most of them are voting with their middle fingers anyway, so the more unfiltered and outrageous, the better. He may be reinforcing his ceiling, though. Seems to me that the number to watch is not the 35% of Republicans he solidly owns, but the much larger percentage of the general electorate that doesn't support him, and never will. He seems perversely determined to give those folks more reasons not to get on board.

pope in sick "israelis are not christian" burn

what other world leaders has trump openly battled with? there have probably been lots but i'm just forgetting?

Cameron: 'I think his remarks are divisive, stupid and wrong. If he came to visit our country I think he would unite us all against him'

Johnson: "I think Donald Trump is clearly out of his mind if he thinks that's a sensible way to proceed, to ban people going to the United States in that way, or to any country," Boris said on Wednesday.

"What he's doing is playing the game of the terrorists and those who seek to divide us. That's exactly the kind of reaction they hope to produce.

"When Donald Trump says there are parts of London that are ‘no go’ areas, I think he’s betraying a quite stupefying ignorance that makes him frankly unfit to hold the office of President of the United States.

“I would invite him to come and see the whole of London and take him round the city - except I wouldn’t want to expose any Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump."

Donald Trump, respected by conservatives everywhere

but has trump responded directly to either Cameron or Johnson?

only a matter of time before he insults Bibi

you'd think he would respect israel's approach to real estate